000
FXUS63 KTOP 190903
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THEY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW THE REST OF THE DAY PLAYS OUT
REGARDING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR CRISS- CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE THAT SHOWS UP ON REGIONAL MOSAIC AS
WELL AS THE KGLD RADAR IS A SUBTLE MCV...WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE LARGELY UNCAPPED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
POINTS WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES INTERACT AND CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND/OR WHERE THIS MCV MOVES THROUGH THE SUBSEQUENT LOW
LEVEL LIFT COULD BE POINTS WHERE CONVECTION FORMS. SHOULD SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCUR IT COULD TRIGGER OTHER STORMS AS MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CREATED. EXPECT AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AT PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LITTLE CINH TO
OVERCOME. SURPRISINGLY DESPITE THE LACK OF FAST MOVING FLOW IN THE
MID LEVELS GOOD TURNING AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. SO SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO
FORM THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL HAVE GOOD ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO BECOME
QUASI-ORGANIZED...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER HAIL AND WIND
THREAT...AGAIN...ASSUMING A STORM CAN GET GOING. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON WED/WED NIGHT WILL COME LATER IN THE
EVENING TO OVER NIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EARLY DISCREET CELLS
IN THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A MULTICELL MCS
WHICH WILL BE FED BY AN INCREASING LLJ AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
SHOULD A COMPLEX BE ABLE TO FORM IN W KANSAS WE CAN EXPECT IT TO
ROLL THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT.

JL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH TROUGH OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE LONER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH RETROGRADES
WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...A SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE AROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE...EASTERN KS AND
MO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A COMBINATION OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. IF A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAINTAINS ITSELF EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...THEN POPS MAY
HAVE TO BE INCREASED. FOR NOW I WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MO...AND THE STRONGER WAA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TX. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND
100 DEGREES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF
I-70 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND THE WEAK FRONT MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. THOUGH INCREASED SFC
DEWPOINTS MAY MAKE IT FEEL WARMER WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. FEEL THAT HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD WITH VCTS GROUPS...ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH