Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280532 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EC/SE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIT AND MISS SH/TS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SOME HIGHER BASED
SH CELLS TO THE SW OF ABQ BUT DONT BELIEVE THEY WILL IMPACT THE
AIRPORT AREA SO LEFT OUT VCSH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT. THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS WILL FIRE UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ERRATIC SO CANT
RULE OUT SOME CELL IMPACT TO ABQ/SAF. WILL USE VCSH AT THIS TIME.
LVS/TCC ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH MINIMAL POSSIBILITY AT
GUP/FMN. ROW IS A TOUGH ONE AND EXPECT SOME CELLS TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP NEARBY LATE TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY
USHER IN MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE TUESDAY EVE AND CANT RULE OUT SOME
INITIAL MVFR CIGS. LVS WOULD BE THE LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR THAT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...THEN WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BOARDER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FLASH FLOODING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE. RICH MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN READINGS WILL
COOL BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER SHOULD FUNNEL SOME DRIER AIR INTO NW AND W
CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...IT WILL ALSO SEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
AROUND MID WEEK. PWATS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER READINGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND READINGS CLOSER TO AN INCH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

MOISTURE WILL THEN RECYCLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRADDLES THE AREA FROM NV TO
WESTERN TX. PWATS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PERSIST IN
THE 1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EACH
DAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS DEPICT A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ SATURDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS UT
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND EASTWARD ACROSS CO SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE
IN DECIDING THE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FASTER MOVING STORMS AND LESSER COVERAGE TODAY IS LEADING TO SMALLER
RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS. A COUPLE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS NUDGED INTO WESTERN NM AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PCT AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH ONLY FAIR RECOVERIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM THE SANGRES
EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL FOR THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR BEING A
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND
BURN AREAS WITHIN NORTHERN NM. THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER NM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...COOLER TEMPS...POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES...AND LOWER HAINES.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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