Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 230552 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1052 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017
06Z TAF CYCLE
Focus for IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys from -SN will remain over northern
and western NM overnight. KGUP and KFMN likely to see improvement
after 09Z with MVFR cigs thereafter. Winds will increase Monday
with most terminals averaging gusts between 25 and 35kt aft 19Z.
The next batch of -SN will move in from the west thru Monday and
impact KFMN and KGUP once again after 21Z. Confidence is moderate
on timing of the snow as models differ on eastward progression.
Nonetheless, the combination of stronger winds, snow, and colder
temps will make the 2nd batch more impactful than tonight`s. -SN
will make it into the RGV and potentially impact KSAF/KABQ shortly
after sunset Monday.
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017...
Yet another Pacific storm system will bring low elevation rain
and higher elevation snow to much of central and northern New
Mexico starting tonight and continuing Monday night. Snow levels
will lower to valley bottoms as the associate cold front moves
through Monday night. Snow showers along with a very cold airmass
will follow the cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold will be
the rule through the remainder of the week with most locations 10
to as much as 20 degrees below average for late January.
An impressively deep upper low and associated trough located off
the WA coast this afternoon. This system will result in another
round of low elevation rain and accumulating higher elevation snow
to much of the area beginning this evening and continuing into
Monday night. Upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm
warning for the Chuska, Tusas, and Jemez mountains late tonight
through 12z Tuesday. Issued a winter weather advisory for the
remainder of the watch area and included the west-central
mountains. Favored area for the heaviest snow accumulation is
from the San Pedro Peaks area north and northeastward to the west
slopes of the Tusas mountains east of Chama and Tierra Amarilla.
ECMWF progs a swly jet that is farther southeast than the GFS prog
late-day Monday which would favor portions of the northern Sangre
de Cristos. Went with a winter weather advisory for this area for
now based on previous events there but can`t rule out locally
heavy snow for areas north of Hwy 64 above 7500 ft.
Trough axis slides through mid-day Tuesday with isolated snow
showers and a very cold airmass. Cold to very cold conditions will
remain the rule Tuesday through the remainder of the week with
many locales 10 to 20 below average for late January under
northwest to nly flow aloft.
Models agree that an upper level ridge along the west coast will
return during the Wednesday through at least next weekend
timeframe, keeping upper level lows/troughs well north of the
Good coverage of wetting precipitation on Friday and Saturday is
being followed by only a short break prior to chances for wetting
precipitation ramping back up tonight through Tuesday as the jet
stream dips south across the Desert Southwest and New Mexico. The
best chances for wetting precipitation (snow) will be late Monday
through early Tuesday across the Western and Northern Mountains
including the Northwest Plateau/Highlands. Winds will ramp-up
through Tuesday as well, with the strongest winds forecast Tuesday
across eastern and south central New Mexico. Vent rates will trend
up through mid week thanks to the stronger winds.
Temperatures will trend down to below normal areawide early week,
then continue below to well below normal through the end of the work
week and into next weekend thanks to a northern stream trough and
reinforcing cold front on early Friday. Vent rates will trend down
through late week and into the weekend with a stable atmosphere in
place and weaker winds. Other than the early week precipitation, it
appears we`re headed into an extended dry period given the 12z GFS
and ECMWF both showing a cutoff low over western/coastal Mexico and
ridging over the Intermountain West from days 8-10.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ512>514-516.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following