Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 301741 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
scattered showers and storms later this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm impacts are most probable at KSAF...KLVS...KAEG...
KABQ and KGUP...and generally ranking in that order. MVFR
conditions are expected with showers and storms...although short-
lived IFR impacts are possible.
.PREV DISCUSSION...351 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016...
A really significant monsoon moisture boost looks more and more
likely across west and north central New Mexico for much of next
week, with a, for lack of a better term, quasi-preview this
weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms with locally
heavy rain, gusty winds and a few instances of mostly small hail.
Central and ne NM will be more or less on the eastern fringe of
this while east central and se sections will likely see the least
coverage. Afternoon temperatures will trend down a few degrees,
especially west and north central sections.
A fairly moist environment is already in place across much of
north and central NM and with high pressure aloft to west of NM
slowly dislodging and translating to the east over this weekend
moisture will begin to increase further, most likely first across
the sw third or so of the state. Should see another active day,
favoring to a fair degree the higher terrain of sw and w central
NM ne to the northern mtns and perhaps ne highlands also. Cape and
instability to be maximized for the most part in this general
swath as well. The lower terrain within this swath will generally
be skewed a little later in time. With the steering flow weakening
further today storm movement likely to be slower, more erratic and
likely more driven by outflow boundary movements and collisions.
This likely to continue Sun as well.
Storm coverage is expected to increase further early next week
across all of western and a good portion of central NM. Models
still holding to somewhat varying degrees to the eastward shift
of the upper high and thus allowing greater amts of moisture to
flow in from the s and se. The easterly wave coming slowly west
and nwwrd across Mexico should help to some degree with this as
well. With the increasing moisture lvls still being advertised
decided to add locally heavy rain wording to the scattered/chance
to numerous/likely pops areas starting today and for the aftns
through Monday. Today may seem a bit too soon for that, but given
the uptick of yesterday felt that we could get away with that as
early as today. As previous day shifter indicated flash flood
watches may be needed for portions of next week depending on
antecedent heavy rainfall locations and presence of any
discernible dynamic and/or thermodynamic markers. Still looks like
the west half will be more favored than farther east for the more
widespread heavier rains, at least for the better part of the
upcoming week. Finally, the real deal monsoon looks like it is
Very little changes to the gridded forecast. Models remain in unison
with increasing storm coverage and humidity values during the next
several days. Went slightly above model dewpoint guidance most of
next week...especially tuesday onward...due to an expected Monsoon
burst pattern. Also increased southerly surface wind speeds by 1 to
3 mph above model guidance across the eastern plains the next 3 to 5
days. This is supported by the moderately strong mid level flow
depicted by the models over the eastern plains...especially NE
plains. There will also be a moderately strong surface trough. Wind
speeds would be a little stronger if soil moisture values were
Near term impacts including increasing wetting rain footprints and
gusty outflow wind. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be a
little more moist today compared to yesterday. With that being
said...Haines values are projected to be a 5 across the NW
third...this means extra strong outflow wind over longer distances
today. Humidity values will trend higher during the weekend although
some teen values will exist across some lowland areas. Besides the
outflow wind threat...gustier southerly breezes will also increase
across the eastern plains.
Weather models remain bullish for the prospects of a Monsoon burst
event next week. Confidence is pretty high. 24 hour humidity is a
great value to monitor and track during the Monsoon season. Values
during the upcoming week will be some of the highest observed so far
during the Monsoon season. Values peak Wednesday through Friday.
This also means daytime temperatures would cool thanks to better
chances of rainfall and abundant cloud cover. A string of below
normal readings is expected to occur, especially favoring the
western half. Eastern areas would be on the warmer and potentially
drier/breezier side...especially the SE plains in terms of dryness.
Suspect the models are under doing the potential of cluster
convection and storms despite some sort of capping. The high is
pretty weak and not nearly as strong compared to the past few weeks
as it elongates and moves to the east of the state. A more permanent
trough of low pressure would be found to the west with a subtle
trough or low found over the state at times. Higher moisture within
the atmosphere and the lack of a significant cap should lead to
large footprints of wetting rain. There will be a period when
heavier rainfall will occur more during the evening/overnight versus
the afternoon but that is typical of a longer duration Monsoon burst
Next weekend looks to be active with the potential of a back door
cold front. It looks like the first week of August will kick off the
month right in terms of Monsoonal moisture.