Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LO LVL CAD HOLDING FIRM ACRS MOST OF THE FA. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPS HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW HRS...ESP ACRS SE VA/NE NC...WHERE
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE M30S TO L40S. OTRW...READINGS HOVERING NR
OR JUST BLO FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES. PCPN RMNS LARGELY SCT AND
LGT...AND XPCG THE PCPN AREA TO CONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS EVE
INTO OVRNGT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND MOST CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORIES ANOTHER FEW HRS THIS EVE AS TEMPS CONT TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH FREEZING (SLOWEST FM THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA TO DORCHESTER
CTY MD). ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS FM A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.

QUESTION RMNS DO TEMPS RMN BLO FREEZING...ESP WELL
INLAND...THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS. NR TERM TEMP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
MOST TEMPS DO REACH/RISE JUST ABV FREEZING...THOUGH THAT IS NOT
CERTAIN. WILL CONT MENTION OF AREAS OF FG OVRNGT GIVEN LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SNOW COVER. LO TEMPS (WELL) INLAND NOT FAR FM
FREEZING (ON EITHER SIDE) TO THE M/U30S SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST AND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE
AFFECTED THE CWA SINCE EARLY MORNING. PERIODS OF -FZRA AND SLEET
FELL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 32F. THE WINTRY MIX HAS LESSENED THIS AFTN AS TEMPS EAST OF
I95 HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 32F OR BETTER. SOME WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PSBL THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

CIGS AND VIS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDS. AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ENDS THIS AFTN EXPECT MOST
TAF CIGS TO DECREASE TO IFR AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPS IN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN A SHALLOW WARM BNDRY AND SW WINDS
BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ022>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>088-099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...












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