Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251052
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High
pressure builds into the area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into
the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Sfc cold has slowed
down invof SE VA as expected...and will continue to remain
stubborn in settling SE into this afternoon. Guidance drops
dewpoints into/through the 60s over the FA as as winds (though
light) become more NNW. Will be carry slgt chc PoPs invof
coastal SE VA-NE NC where local convergence (aided by possible
seasbreezes) and at least marginal instability hang on.
Otherwise...averaging partly sunny...a bit more tolerable (as
the drying begins) and highs in the m-u80s...l80s at the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any evening convection wanes...otherwise clear to partly cloudy
tonight w/ lows in the m-u50s NW to m-u60s SE.

Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon...w/
a lead s/w dropping across into the mountains. This feature
will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon
,prmomg...dropping across the local area late Mon/Mon night. As
a result...conditions become partly cloudy. An ISOLD shower or
two is possible with the frontal passage along the coast.
However...given dry antecedent airmass...expecting little more
than some increasing clouds and will keep pops in silent range
for now. Highs 80-85F (u70s at the beaches).

Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool...pleasant
night Monday night with lows in the 50s to m60s...then highs in
the u70s-l80s Tue. A second...stronger s/w aloft will drop
across the local area in NW flow aloft Tues. Despite dry
airmass...this feature could prove strong enough to squeeze out
a shower or thunderstorm...esp in SE VA-NE NC where slightly
better moisture may spread NE ahead of that s/w aloft. Going w/
PoPs 15-25% those areas for now.

Sfc hi pres finally builds into/over the region Tue night-Wed
providing dry/comfortable conditions under mainly SKC. Lows in
the m50s inland to the l60s at the coast. Highs Wed 80-85F...70s
at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will feature generally dry wx with increasing temps
through the period. Dry wx into Thu as sfc high slides offshore
allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlantic and temps
to max out in the mid-upr 80s. Similar conditions into Fri with
a mostly sunny sky and high temps mainly into the upr 80s to
near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front will remain slow to settle SE through SE VA-NE NC
today. BKN-OVC (IFR/lo end MVFR) CIGS invof ECG into mid
morning...otherwise generally VFR conditions expected for the
TAF sites. Tempo MVFR CIGS possible for ECG w/ precipitation
(late this afternoon/early evening). Mostly VFR tonight through
mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into
this afternoon. Little in the way of CAA behind the front, so
anticipate winds mainly aob 10 kt today and Mon, with 1-2 ft waves
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Another cold
front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following
the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue. Sfc high
pressure returns for the middle of the coming week, then slides
offshore late in the week. An increase in winds from the S-SW (10-
20kt) should occur by Thursday/Friday, along with the potential
for seas building to 3-5 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...ALB/JEF
MARINE...JDM



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