Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY
STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE AFTN ACRS FA...MOST INLAND TEMPS IN THE M/U80S W/
U70S-L80S CLOSER TO THE SHORE (ALTHOUGH OCEAN CITY BEACHES STUCK
ARND 70F). P/MSTLY SUNNY...W/ SSW WNDS GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH. CU HAS
A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT SBCAPE GENLY AOB 750 J/KG (W/ NO TRIGGER). ATMOS RMNS
JUST WARM/STABLE ENOUGH FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD RMN SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. WILL CARRY
20-30% POPS ACRS FA...HOLDING POPS AOB 14% AT THE SHORE. ISOLD
SHRAS MAY LINGER OVRNGT...OTRW ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU
XPCD AFT 06-08Z/28. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENCE GENLY CONTG ON THU...THOUGH MDL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A
BIT HIGHER SBCAPE/MLCAPE (AGN AWAY FM THE CST) BY AFTN. WILL HAVE
VRB CLDS/MCLDY TO START THE DAY...THEN AVGG OUT PSNY...WARM AGAIN
W/ 30-40% POPS INLAND...20% AT THE SHORE. LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE PSBL ALG W/ BRIEF GUSTY WNDS FM ANY STMS. HI TEMPS THU IN
THE M/80S...W/ EXCEPTION TO 70S AT THE SHORE.

WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN
DEWPTS ACRS FAR NNE COUNTIES FOR THE DAY...WHILE RMNG UP ELSW. HI
PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY...SO
FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA (10-20% POPS ELSW). BY
SAT...CDFNT FM THE NW APPROACHES...THOUGH RMNS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR
ANY EFFECT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM  W/ VRB
CLDS/PCLDY AND 15-25% POPS INLAND...10% AT THE CST. HI TEMPS FRI
AND SAT IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS M60S- ARND
70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
INTERMOUTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50%
POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WIND PROFILE
WILL REMAIN WEAKLY SHEARED SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER
UNORGANIZED. POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE
30-40% MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO
20-30% BY TUESDAY AND SUB-15% THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES HAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE NRN MID-ATLC CST THIS AFTN...WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS WAS RESULTING IN S-SW WINDS OF 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KT IN SOME SPOTS. SCT TO BKN CU (4000-7000 FT) WAS OVR THE AREA
THIS AFTN...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS OVR INLAND NE NC. ISLTD-WIDELY
SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNG AT
RIC/SBY...OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW/NRN COUNTIES ON THU...BEFORE
WASHING OUT. MORE HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST FRI
THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW/N LATE SAT/SAT
NGT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH TRACKS WELL N OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SSW WIND COULD BRIEFLY REACH 15-20KT ACROSS THE BAY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A SSW WIND SHOULD AVERAGE
AOB 15KT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALLOWWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSE AOB
10KT...ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT (15-20KT
OCEAN). THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ



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