821
FXUS63 KBIS 100542
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for precipitation return at the end of the weekend.

- Near normal to above normal temperatures and more precipitation
expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Limited updates needed at this time. Some high clouds remain
across the southwest, while a scattered to broken layer of mid
level clouds remains from south central to northeastern North
Dakota. These clouds will gradually push southward tonight with
clearing behind them. Made a few updates to sky cover otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Decided to go ahead and remove any mention of precipitation
across western and central North Dakota for the rest of the
night given the lack of any radar echoes or actual rainfall
observations. Otherwise, we just blended in the latest
observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. Thus far, we have
yet to see any appreciable showers coming from the cumulus
scattered across the area. The one exception may be the far
southwest where convection appears to be just a touch deeper.
Bowman radar does show a few weak echoes here so a sprinkle or
two may not be out of the question. Otherwise, it`s a beautiful
evening across western and central North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Diurnal cumulus clouds are filling in on satellite across western
North Dakota this afternoon. Based on soundings, these clouds are a
result of mid-level moisture. As the afternoon goes on, some of
these may become strong enough to produce showers, but any rain that
falls will have to overcome low level dryness to make it to the
surface.

Synoptically, the pattern is full of opportunities for precipitation
as shortwaves and clippers galore propagate through the region.
This weekend, northwest flow takes over briefly, followed by a
shortwave system mid-week next week. Temperatures through the
period will be in the 70s starting Saturday, some days
approaching 80 degrees along the South Dakota border.

The first system in the forecast after today`s frontal showers will
be a clipper system expected Friday. The precipitation zone looks to
be more in eastern North Dakota with this, but a scenario exists
where isolated showers could develop further west (20 - 30%
likelihood of occurrence). Regardless, this system`s main effect on
western North Dakota will be breezy northwesterly winds. This raises
some concerns for fire weather as the atmosphere mixes and RHs drop
into the 20% range, but recent precipitation means fuels have
greened up a bit so unsure how significant the low RHs and breezy
winds will be.

Precipitation chances increase once again to start the work week, as
a train of shortwaves seem to blend into each other through mid-
week. Probabilities of >= 0.1" Monday morning through Wednesday
morning are 70% across western North Dakota, but once those
probabilities increase to half an inch over the 48 hour period, the
likelihood drops to 20 - 30%, with the higher probs in that range
being in the James River Valley and in a pocket around Minot. What
likely will occur is isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
region for those days. With probabilities for exceeding 500 J/kg
less than 20%, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Some sites
may see a SCT to BKN layer of clouds tonight, mainly at VFR
levels. A steady northwest wind could also be found tonight.
Mainly clear skies and breezy to windy northwest winds are then
expected for Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...FGF/AH
AVIATION...Anglin