Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251734
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For this update, tweaked the precipitation chances to better match
observed radar trends. Still expect northeastern Montana
precipitation to nudge its way into northwestern North Dakota in
the next couple of hours. The big question mark about strong to
severe storms in the southeast later this afternoon remains cloud
cover. Other than that, just blended the latest observations to
the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 931 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Showers with a few thunderstorms continue to lift through the
area. Concern for severe has decreased a bit over the James River
Valley region as latest guidance has backed off a bit on the
instability and shifts the deep layer shear out a bit earlier.
With that said, if skies clear out this afternoon would not be
surprised to see a few storms become stronger. Updates have been
sent.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Overall, forecast expectations remain unchanged for this morning
through this evening, and well supported by the 06-10 UTC guidance
suites. The ongoing forecast was blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Convective potential south central and the James River Valley this
afternoon and evening, and rainfall around one inch today
northwest and far north central highlight the short term
forecast.

Low pressure across southeast South Dakota as of 09 UTC this
morning is forecast to propagate into southeast North Dakota late
this afternoon. Low level moisture transport along and east of an
inverted trough extending into north central North Dakota is
forecast to yield surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s F
this afternoon. The main question is how much instability can
build across the south central and James River Valley given cloud
cover. The 06 UTC NAM and 08 UTC RAP suggest some thinning in
cloud cover this afternoon, however a large spread in possible ML
CAPE values is present amongst the guidance, representing a
conditional severe threat highly dependent on how much clouds can
thin. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe storms across
these areas in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Across northwest and far north central North Dakota a deformation
zone is forecast to establish itself this morning and into the
afternoon northwest of the aforementioned surface low. Around one
inch of rainfall is possible for these areas today, locally higher
with embedded thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An active weather pattern with daily chances for thunderstorms
highlights the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suites are in agreement on a mean longwave
intermountain west trough through the extended forecast period.
Downstream across the Northern Plains, favorable southwest flow
aloft supports a daily threat for thunderstorms Thursday through
early next week. At this time, no specific period stand outs with
a significant severe thunderstorm threat, however, the threat is
also non-zero for this synoptic setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across western and central North Dakota. The most numerous
activity should be in the northern TAF sites at KISN and KMOT.
Ceilings may fall to MVFR at KISN and KDIK this afternoon...and at
KMOT after 00z. Regarding KJMS, amendments are not scheduled due
to communication issues with the ASOS.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
AVIATION...JV



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