Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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567
FXUS63 KBIS 260138
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
738 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Little change with this update other than for observed trends
through 01 UTC as a relatively mild overnight is expected with
southwesterly surface flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

For the near term/this afternoon and evening, RWIS (Road Weather
Information System) temperatures indicate road surface temperatures
ranging from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. These temperatures
are following the trends of the METRo Roadcast Model with
expectations of maximum road temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s this afternoon. We queried and received reports from
State Radio that north-south highways, especially in the James
River Valley are experiencing drifting/melting/refreezing and icy
spots. We used this information and expanded it to include all
north-south roads (mainly county roads), highlighting an impact to
travel via a Special Weather Statement. Roads are not impassable,
but motorists are urged to use caution and not to use cruise
control. Please visit www.weather.gov for further details on the
Special Weather Statement. The SPS remains valid through 7PM CST.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough exiting the
Dakotas, and shifting into the upper midwest. Upstream, a
progressive/quasi-zonal flow extends from the Northern Rockies
into the Northern High Plains. Next upper low over eastern British
Columbia/western Alberta with an attending surface warm front/cold
front will slide across western/central ND during the short term
period. No precipitation with these features, but will notice a
nice warm up Monday being in the warm sector for most of the day with
high temperatures in the 30s. This will be followed by a cold
frontal passage Monday evening.

Visible satellite imagery shows the leading edge of mid/high
clouds associated with a warm front/warm air advection which will
slide across western/central ND tonight. Thus expect some increase
in clouds but dry with overnight lows in the teens. Mostly to
partly cloudy Monday with highs in the 30s. Winds will be weaker
Monday (10 to 20 mph), so thinking right now is the
drifting/melting/refreezing will not be an issue like we are
having this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The bulk of the work week is benign in terms of precipitation. A
split flow with an active southern branch will remain south of
North Dakota. The northern stream will push a few shortwaves
through, but nothing of any significance until Friday through
Sunday. There appears to be some agreement with the GFS/ECMWF
showing an initial push of precipitation mainly over northern
North Dakota Friday, but thereafter, there is no clear signal on
how things will materialize. So, expect dry weather with highs in
the 30s through the long term period, and overnight lows in the
upper single digits to teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 736 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 00 UTC TAF cycle.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...PA



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