Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 260622
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
122 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 AM UPDATE...
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS IN NORTHWEST MA WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THERE
WAS A GUST BEYOND 40 MPH AT PITTSFIELD MA IN THE BERKSHIRES.
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE GENERALLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES
WERE ON TRACK...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
EXCEPT STILL MID 40S ON THE ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL TEND TO STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLC/SE U.S.
COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...KEEPING A GENERAL W WIND FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS
WELL. W WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND MAY BACK
TO SW DURING FRI NIGHT DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR THIS SHIFTS TO THE
E. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE 30S...RUNNING 10-15 DEGS
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WITH A GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. AND A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCKING COLDER AIR ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CANADA...TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS MAY TOUCH 50. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VRBL
OR CALM WINDS FRI NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS
TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
* TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DRY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRINGING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY
BRING SOME CIRRUS TO OUR AREA...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
ON TAP.

H925 TEMPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON 5C ON GFS AND 3-4C ON ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT
JUST A HINT COOLER THAN PREV FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA FLATTENS OUT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS
AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE
TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BROUGHT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION IS EITHER EAST OF OUR
AREA FOR MON TO TUE...OR STAYS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OUR AREA MON TO TUE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DID SHOW
LOW PRESSURE MAKING A CLOSE PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL GO
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER OUR AREA
SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED...MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO
SO THINKING THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS.

WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION
AND PROBABLY STAYS WITH US FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUE AND WED HIGH TEMPS MAY BE LIMITED TO UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AND WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IN WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL MA AND CLEAR SKIES IN RI AND EASTERN MA. W WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT MAINLY 15-25 KT GUSTS
ELSEWHERE...SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...HAVE DOWNGRADED ALL GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 34 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED WELL INTO FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED BY FRIDAY FOR
MOST THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE NEARSHORE...
BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTH COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...W WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER
AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SAT. SW
TO W WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW...WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/NMB/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...EVT/NMB
MARINE...EVT/NMB/GAF


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