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000
FXUS61 KBOX 082326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
626 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO
COLDER WEATHER. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY ALONG WITH RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DETAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*** COLDER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THRU MONDAY ***

625 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER S NH/N MA SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...925 MB TEMPS GO FROM +4C THIS
AFTERNOON TO ABOUT -6C BY 12Z SUN. DEFINITELY A CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT RIDES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI LATER TONIGHT.
COLUMN STRUGGLES TO SATURATE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MOST
OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANY LEFTOVER MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MA SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
QUICKLY AS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY RACES EASTWARD. COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON A MODEST NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL PROVIDE CHILLY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL AND WE DON`T WANT TO SAY HOW MUCH COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTER THE REGION THIS PERIOD. MODEL TSECTIONS SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN TONIGHT/S. THUS HIGHER
POPS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH
HIGHS 35-40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BRIEF WARMUP TUE
* WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WED/THU

OVERVIEW...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF GREENLAND HELPING TO CREATE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. A RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
US. MEANWHILE...PACIFIC WAVES CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE
SUBTROPICS. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FEATURES SHORTWAVES ROUNDING
THE EAST CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WITH MAINLY
LOW-QPF-CREATING SHORTWAVES. WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST GAINING
AMPLITUDE AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH REACTING TO THAT... A SHORTWAVE
MOVES SOUTH...BUT MORE EAST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. IT
DOESN/T INTENSIFY UNTIL ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY
PHASES WITH IT. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THE NORTHERN STREAM IS MORE ACTIVE
WITH THIS STORM...BUT COLD AIR WILL BE A HUGE QUESTION. THE STORM
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEW ENGLAND WED
INTO THU. A MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER THE STATES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD.

MODEL PREFERENCES... MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL FLOW INTO WED...
THEN MODEL INCONSISTENCY OCCURS IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
PHASING. MODELS SEEM CLOSE TOGETHER IN THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK AS
A WHOLE WITH THE GGEM BEING THE FARTHEST OFFSHORE AND NOT AGREEING
WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE. HAVE CONSIDERED THAT AN OUTLIER
AT THIS POINT AS IT DOESN/T AGREE WITH ITS ENSEMBLE SUITE. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS THE STORM FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS THE SAME TIMING AS ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT HAS A MORE TRACK MORE NORTH THAN THE 12Z GFS /AND WITH ITS
00Z RUN/. OP AND ENS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON GIVING US A
STORM OF SOME SORT FOR WED-THURS TIMEFRAME SO AM CONFIDENT IN A
STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG/OFF E COAST...BUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND EXCEPT THE GGEM AT THIS
TIME.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...WITH A LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH...HAVE KEPT THE REGION DRY
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN. HOWEVER TEMPS STILL REACH MID TO UPPER 40S WITH 850
TEMPS AROUND 0C AND W WIND. THIS IS STILL NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS UP
COAST BUT STILL HAVE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM TRACK ALONG
S COAST OR A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. COMPROMISE SOLUTION HAS IT WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WED...TO SNOW WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN IN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
WEST AND NORTH THIS TIME...RATHER THAN NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO
REGION AS WITH PAST STORMS. IT IS ALSO GETTING LATE IN SEASON WITH
HIGHER SUN ANGLE. SNOW COVER AND N AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW SHOULD HELP
LOW LEVEL COLD REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS INTERIOR WHERE WE ARE MOST
CONFIDENT IN SNOW OCCURRING /AREAS N OF MASS PIKE STAND BEST
CHANCE AT STAYING ALL SNOW/.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
ALLOWS COLD AIR TO SPILL IN FROM BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
CLEAR AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA AND WARM AIR FLOODS
THE REGION ON THE BACK END OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUDY DAY ON TAP
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOCALES. THAT WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT/S PINWHEELING AROUND THE CANADIAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEA BREEZES IN PROCESS OF DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO N AS COLD FRONT OVER S NH/N MA DROPS FARTHER S INTO
CT/RI/SE MA THROUGH 03Z. VFR CIGS AOA 050.

OVERNIGHT...LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST CENTERED ON 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR/DRY
WEATHER AND A MODEST NNW WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND A MODEST NNW WIND. LOW RISK OF MVFR
CIGS EARLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MODEST SSW WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. THEN...AS THE
DAY GOES ON THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM ARE NOT UNLIKELY.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN TRACK AND PTYPE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SE SWELLS OF 4-7 FT IMPACT THE OCEAN WATERS
OF RI AND MA. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO SUN. VSBY MAY
LOWER TO 3-5 MILES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE SWELLS LINGERS AND NW WINDS EASE AND SHIFT
TO SW MON. VSBY MAY LOWER 3-5 MILES IN MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THIS STORM WILL TRACK AROUND THE BENCHMARK AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN PTYPE AND
TRACK...BUT STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE
LOW ARE POSSIBLE. WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN GALES. SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST 6 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AROUND 10 FT SEAS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CAPE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...ROLLER/JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD