Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 221448
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
948 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move west to east across the North Country
today, bringing rain and snow showers to the region.
Accumulations will be light. Thanksgiving day will be dry with
maximum temperatures in the 30s. Next chance for showers will be
Saturday into Sunday with another cold front crossing the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 943 AM EST Wednesday...Diabatic/wet-bulb cooling allowing
temperatures to cool to near freezing within
850-700mb deformation/frontogenetic banding extending from the
ern slopes of the Adirondacks newd across the Champlain Valley
and n-central VT. Have made some adjustments to show more of a
rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley (good bright banding on
KCXX reflectivity imagery), and snow accumulations up to 1" or
so along/east of the Green Mtns and within the nrn Adirondack
region. Could see 1-2" at the higher summit level. Also lowered
afternoon temps into the low-mid 30s with NW wind shift,
afternoon clouds and good sfc-850mb cold advection once the
deformation axis moves out after 18Z or so. May see a few slick
spots on roadways above 1000ft or so, including along I-89 south
and east of MPV. We`ll continue to monitor as deformation
shifts into that region next 1-2 hrs.

Quiet weather for tonight with a weak ridge of surface high
pressure building into the area from the west with height rises
aloft. BUFKIT soundings show clouds lingering through the
overnight. Temperatures will be pretty dependent on cloud cover,
but should be in the teens to twenties.

Chilly and quiet wx conditions for Thanksgiving with highs in
the low-mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...Upper low passing well north of
the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through
the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact
outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York and the higher
elevations of northern Vermont. Minor snow accumulations are
expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake
effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high
pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the
work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...No big changes from the previous
forecast thinking for the extended period with the main
highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend,
and another big warmup mid-week.

High pressure over the eastern seaboard Friday night shifts
east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing
well north of the border over James Bay. Dry warm front moves
through the North Country Friday night with mild temps in the
30s overnight warming into low/mid 40s Saturday before a cold
front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a
real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there
should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few
scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope
enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent
upper trough swings through.

High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps
seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens/20s for lows.
Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the
pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong
low pressure developing out of the lee of the Rockies moves
northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday`s end. Increasing
south/southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the
region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s
in the deeper Valleys with no precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Deeper moisture moving into the area
today ahead of a cold front and as the precipitation begins the
ceilings have dropped down into the MVFR and IFR categories.
Visibilities will also lower into the MVFR category thru 18z
with rain and snow showers moving across the region. Once the
precipitation ends, VFR visibilities are expected for the
remainder of the period. South to southwest winds will prevail
through about 12z, then a cold front moves in and winds shift to
the west and northwest for the remainder of the period.
Ceilings and visibilities will both be improving to VFR after
00z.

Outlook...

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles



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