Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 162328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
715 PM. NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA OTW NO
CHANGES NEEDED. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLR
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESP IN FAVORED
LOCALES AS TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. POPS NIL
AFTER 23Z WITH LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER
30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
ANTICIPATE SOME DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG AFTER 04Z IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT...AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. W-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY SW-W AT 5-8 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
WILL BE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE LOW ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING RH ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS/FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18-20Z THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND
BTV-4KM WRF SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH 06-15Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY PBL CONDITIONS...BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

LOOK FOR A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REINFORCING SURGE
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPR 30S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (WARMEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) WITH HIGHS THURSDAY OF 55-60F FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A
FREEZE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF
CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA COMES OUT OF A COLD NIGHT BUT TEMPS TO
RECOVER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST...IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW
RH...1000-500MB RH LESS THAN 40%...WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS. EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS BUT 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WEAK
WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
SATURDAY AND CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY NEARER THE WARM FRONT...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. THE
NORTHEAST IS CUT OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH...SO ONLY
MOISTURE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH IS WHAT IT BRINGS ALONG WITH IT
ACROSS THE CONTINENT. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL AS WITH LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A LOW ALOFT WITH LOW THICKNESS AND
COOL 850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. PATCHY IFR/LIFR IN BR/FG A GOOD BET AT KSLK/KMPV/KRUT WITH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR AT KBTV/KPBG/KMSS. AFTER 12Z SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR UNDER S/SW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FROM 070-150 AGL POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 18Z
WED.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY
MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...JMG/HANSON





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