Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 060920
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016
Cloudy skies this morning with some breaks in the clouds
possible this afternoon. Next weather system arrives early
Wednesday Morning and brings another round of light accumulating
snow during the morning commute.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...Expecting dry weather across the
North Country for today. Lots of clouds in place this morning,
but may see some breaks in the clouds later this afternoon with
some drier air and weak ridging over the area. Temperatures
today will be in the mid 30s to around 40.
Tonight we will have our next system approaching from the
Southwest. This is another warm front with some decent shortwave
energy. It should stay cold enough across our area to mainly
just see snow with this feature. Overnight minimum temperatures
will be around the mid 20s to around 30. Light snow will move
into our forecast area from the Southwest during the second half
of the overnight hours. Have mainly high chance to low likely
pops and have also gone with mention of light snow. This feature
will weaken over time as it tracks Northeastward. Best
shortwave energy will exit off the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect
just minor snow accumulations with this event, generally just
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...A weak frontal system moves through
the region Wednesday morning with some light snow. QPF amounts
are lighter than on Monday`s snow event, but still timing will
again be during the Wednesday morning commute, so some slippery
conditions will be possible on any untreated road surfaces.
Expecting precipitation will wind down and come mostly to an end
by midday on Wednesday. Thus, have lowered pops for Wednesday
afternoon. Expecting a mainly cloudy but dry night on Wednesday
night. On Thursday, a cold front will move south from Canada and
bring a chance for more rain and snow showers.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...Much colder air will be moving into
the region from Thursday night through this weekend, with high
temperatures only in the 20s Saturday and Sunday.Expecting a
chance of snow showers from Thursday night through Friday night.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region for Saturday
and Saturday night, with fair and dry weather expected. A warm
front will approach the region by Sunday afternoon, so have gone
with a chance of light snow Sunday afternoon. Expecting light
snow to continue into Sunday night across the north country.
ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences on Monday, with
the GFS having a low over Canada on Monday, while the ECMWF
model has some waves of low pressure moving northeast across
southern New England. However, both models are indicating
precipitation across the region on Monday, so have a chance a
chance for rain or snow on Monday.
.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR
conditions through 15z with just some scattered light snow
showers. There may be some brief periods of IFR conditions.
After 15z...VFR conditions are expected as areal coverage of the
clouds decreases. The clouds will begin to return to the area
from southwest to northeast. However...ceilings will generally
be above 10000 feet. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.
Outlook 06z Tuesday through Saturday... Vfr with some lingering
mvfr cigs at slk/mpv on Tuesday...before another warm front
produces another round of widespread light snow across our
region on Weds. Similar to Monday`s event thinking a period of
ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across our taf sites with
vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and 2000 feet. An arctic
boundary will produce more scattered snow showers and potential
snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with brief periods of ifr
conditions possible. Improving conditions with mvfr valleys and
ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist on Saturday.