Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



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