Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BECOME A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 157 AM EDT SATURDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGE
NEEDED. UPDATED TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT, DECOUPLED WINDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED HOURLY
TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PRIOR EXPECTATIONS IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION BEGINS, SHOULD SEE TEMPS HOVER STEADY AND RISE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, SO ULTIMATELY OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS GOING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID/UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AFTER 18Z...AND MAINLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OUT OF SPC. BETTER DYNAMICS AND STRONGER SHEAR WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. CAPE VALUES REACH OVER 2000 IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION
TO END AND JUST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
TO OUR SOUTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS MENTIONED IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
REGION IS IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
FORESEEN BASED ON CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z
ECMWF. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IF SURFACE
WINDS DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEASTERNVT...TO AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS PROVIDING PLEASANT/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY...BEFORE MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S
ON FRIDAY.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONCERNING
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND TRACKS STRONGEST UVV ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF - ON THE OTHER HAND -
KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY 15-30 POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POP VALUES ACROSS SRN ZONES. CLOUDS COULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRENDING WARMING (LOW-MID 70S) WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR (POSSIBLE MVFR MIST AT MPV) WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TOWARDS MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION FOCUS
WILL BE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MID-
TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE 10-18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-28 KTS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED...BUT
SOME COULD TURN STRONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LIGHTNING AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST SHOT AT SEEING THIS
ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z WOULD BE AT MSS AND SLK...AND AFTER 22Z AT
REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING N-NW WINDS BEHIND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRENDING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...BUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
FOR RUT/MPV. AVIATION WX CONDITION PREDICTABILITY LOW AT THIS
POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO
MARINE...NEILES


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