Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
934 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY
IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A
BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT
RECENT/INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE
GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON
COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF
SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN
ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT.
GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
DELIVERING BKN-OVC025-045 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VLY AND NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND AWAITING THE TYPICAL INCREASING...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PRIOR TO DAWN.

LIGHT SNOW REACHES KRUT ARD 12-14Z AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
STEADIEST SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO VSBY AT KRUT AND KMPV
BEFORE END OF THE PERIOD.

BRISK SW/W WINDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
BUT THEY WILL THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LGT/VRBL TIL AFT
12Z WHERE A LIGHT NNE FROM THE CIRCULATION OF OUR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELPS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW


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