Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251818
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY FALL APART AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THIS SECOND FRONT...A RETURN TO COLDER AND MUCH
MORE TYPICAL WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM...WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE...AND
WITH THESE NOT HAVING SHOWN ANY REAL CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...WE
HAVE CANCELLED ALL REMAINING WIND ADVISORIES.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...IN SPITE OF SOME
POSSIBLE BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NIGHT WITH WINDS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE MAY HOLD OUT AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK
THANKS TO STRONG FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
THE FALLING READINGS BEING MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS HIGH
WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS THEN FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TO MID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL DIPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

ON SATURDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF A
WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS LOW CENTER IS NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS DEEP AS THE
CURRENT LOW SO NO HIGH WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED...JUST SOME BREEZY
WINDS. THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANY MORE NOTABLE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
40S SO THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO THE 30S WITH SOME
WET SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE ENDING. SOME PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UPSLOPING BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO
AROUND -6C WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT MUCH OF A
LAKE ENHANCEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL THEME LEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR SURGES ACROSS OUR REGION. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH ARRIVING. 00Z MODELS
SHOW AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A STRONGER AND BROADER ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH WOULD EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WITH A NORTHWEST FETCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

WHILE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS WILL SUPPORT SOME
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
GREATLY LACKING. THIS PRECLUDES ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SHOWING
CONSISTENCY IN ANY OTHER SOURCES OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. WHILE THE 25/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE WAVES SUPPRESSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE CANADIAN SHOWS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THAT MAY SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS NEW YORK. HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS BACK
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAVORING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
LIKELY STAYING IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS
SEEN IN THE MODELS LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS OR SO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVEN MORE SO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S
COLD FRONT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
ALLOW FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT POINTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME IFR CIGS AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

ANY NOTEWORTHY IMPROVEMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY REMAIN LOCKED UNDER MVFR CIGS FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW GALE FORCE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REPLACED THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...LINGERING GALES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW US TO EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE
REMAINING GALE WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...BEFORE WINDS
FINALLY RELAX ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY.

A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIFT ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...SWINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RAIN AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND THIS
COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHED
THE BLACK RIVER ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT BOONVILLE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...WITH THE CREST
EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO WATERTOWN BY SATURDAY...WHERE
THE RIVER SHOULD CREST JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION STAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...JJR/APFFEL/WOOD







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