Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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573
FXUS61 KBUF 271525
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1125 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain showers will taper off through this afternoon as a
weak storm system moves away from our region. Another weak storm
system will pass by to our south on Tuesday with additional rain
showers tapering off Tuesday night. Following this will be a period
of dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. Mild temperatures today will
slowly trend lower through Thursday as cooler air filters in across
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cyclonic spin in visible satellite imagery places an area of low
pressure over the Saint Lawrence River Valley. A weak occluded front
trails to the southwest across the eastern Great Lakes where radars
are showing areas of rain showers along and east of the front. Two
more concentrated areas are east of the lakes with scattered showers
in between.

Ahead of this front, dewpoints are on the rise pushing well into the
40s across WNY under southwesterly winds. These moist, southwest
winds over a still cool Lake Erie are producing low clouds with
patchy fog lingering into the afternoon. Fog is also possible
through tonight across the Eastern Lake Ontario region where
heavier showers have fallen.

A weakening area of low pressure over Arkansas this afternoon will
advance across the Ohio Valley tonight. This feature may bring
several rain showers that will reach WNY before sunrise tomorrow.

With little to no change in airmass expected today...temperatures
should again climb into the 50s across most areas...while possibly
reaching the 60F mark again across favored downslope flow regions
south of Lake Ontario. Tonight lows within a moist airmass will drop
back into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening mid-level trough will move across the region on Tuesday.
00Z model consensus has trended south with this wave, with some
model guidance even keeping northern portions of the cwa dry.
Following these trends, will maintain categorical PoPs south of
Buffalo, but lower these to the north. This wave should produce a
few hours of rain, mainly during the morning and early afternoon
hours on Tuesday. The day will be far from a washout, with a period
of fairly nice weather expected across Western New York Tuesday
afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s across Western
New York to the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Eastern Lake
Ontario Region.

After this, high pressure will expand across Ontario province
Tuesday night, with a ridge axis extending across the Lower Great
Lakes Region Wednesday and Thursday. A few light showers may linger
Tuesday night from residual moisture and upslope enhancement. This
may mix with snow across the North Country, with no accumulation.
After this, there will be an extended period of dry weather.

Upslope clouds may linger Tuesday night but should scatter out
Wednesday with temperatures aloft probably not cold enough for lake
effect clouds despite the northerly flow. Wednesday will be
seasonable with highs in the 40s, and Thursday a few degrees warmer
with southern portions reaching 50. The ridge axis will be across
our region Wednesday night, but the surface high will be to our
north. Expect decent radiational cooling, but winds may not go
completely calm with lows in the mid 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
Four Corners region during the first half of the week, then eject
ENE across the central Plains to the Ohio Valley by Friday. 00Z
guidance has come into better agreement, with the ECMWF closer to
the `wet` GFS/GGEM guidance. Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport ahead of this trough will likely bring showers Thursday
night mainly in Western NY. This system is likely to bring rain to
all areas Friday and Friday night as the deep mid level trough and
associated surface low cross the region. The system will be filling
with time, which generally keeps forcing and moisture transport on
the weaker side which will in turn keep rain amounts relatively
modest.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard.

Temperatures will likely run near to slightly above average through
the period, with highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s and
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of rain showers continue to pass across the region ahead and
along a weak frontal boundary. These showers and a very moist
airmass are bringing times of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis possible through
about 18Z as dewpoints climb. As winds veer to southwesterly later
this afternoon and evening some IFR flight conditions will be
possible across KART as well.

Flight conditions will largely remain MVFR/VFR across KROC, as low
stratus from Lake Erie will likely not extend well inland owing to
the weak synoptic flow.

Winds will diminish to light and variable overnight as weak high
pressure pushes towards the region. The weak flow, coupled with
still plenty of low level moisture may allow for some low stratus in
the IFR/MVFR range to develop across the region. In addition a few
rain showers will reach far WNY by late in the night.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will exit across the Saint Lawrence
River Valley this afternoon. Another weak low will pass well to our
south Tuesday with some showers possible across the lakes but
otherwise winds/waves should remain fair through at least Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flows will remain high on the Black Creek and Oatka Creek in Monroe
county. Forecast points at Churchville and Garbutt are just above
action stage and near crest this morning. They should gradually
fall today, with no flooding expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL



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