Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011334
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST FOR TODAY SHOULD BE NEARING WESTERN NY
DURING PRIME HEATING WITH A THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY KJHW TO SOUTH OF
KROC SHORTLY AFTER NOON. ANOTHER LINE MAY FORM ALONG THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORELINE.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING FOR A QUIET NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NNE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JAMES BAY LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE THE LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY...BUT NEAR
NORMAL TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 16-18Z. CEILINGS IN CONVECTION WILL BE 3-4K FT WITH VSBY
2-3SM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING LATE TODAY.  AFTER SOME EVENING CLEARING...EXPECT A STEADY
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT
NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







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