Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 271815
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
215 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Fair and warm conditions will be the general rule through early
to mid next week. A weak front, with limited moisture, will
traverse the forecast area tonight, with fair and warming
conditions expected Friday into the weekend. A weak dry front
moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce continued
dry conditions early to mid next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR and water vapor imagery both show well defined upper ridging
across the western US, and deep trough across the eastern US.
A weak upper level shortwave moving into western North Carolina
is bringing some light rains to the central Appalachians. This
activity will continue to track off to the east/northeast through
the late afternoon, with most activity remaining light. Moisture
is slowly increasing over the area, with pwat values now up
around 1 inch. Moisture should continue to slowly increase in
advance of an approaching cold front. The best upper support will
be north of the area as the front moves closer, and expect mostly
dry conditions to prevail through tonight across the area.
Instability remains relatively weak this afternoon and evening.
Best chance for any light rain or isolated thunderstorm will
remain mainly across the extreme northwestern counties.
The main shortwave energy will be east of the cwa by 03z, and a
dry forecast should prevail overnight. For lows tonight, with the
slight increase in low-level moisture, readings should moderate
slightly from previous nights. Overnight readings in the upper 50s
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the weak front/trough, surface high pressure will shift
into the region late Friday into the weekend. Upper trough over
the E CONUS will lift to the north some, with upper ridge center
shifting east along the Gulf coast, providing a continued dry WNW
to NW flow aloft for our area. With building upper heights over
our area and main nearly zonal upper flow well to our north,
along with some h85 downslope flow, well above normal temps
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest GFS continues to indicate a dry front moving through the
area Sunday night/early Monday. High pressure center to ridge down
the eastern seaboard, and also indicate a building upper ridge
over the SE CONUS, ensuring dry conditions. Some cooler air to
enter the region behind the front, but still above normal temps
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. Afternoon
heating and an increase in low-level moisture has caused scattered
to broken mid-level cumulus across the region. This will remain
through this evening. Most areas to remaining dry, but can not
rule out an isolated shower north of the terminals late this
afternoon and early this evening. Activity should not impact any
of the local terminals through the period. Winds out of the south
to southwest this afternoon and tonight. Speeds between 5 and 10
knots this afternoon, then diminishing this evening to less than 5
knots. With the increase in low-level moisture, and light winds,
patchy fog may become an issue at the usual fog prone sites early
Friday morning. Have gone with mvfr conditions at cae/cub/dnl, and
the possibility of ifr at ags/dnl for brief period towards
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
No impacts to aviation expected at this time.