Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 060338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIP DIMINISHING BY 07Z. STILL CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY...AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY. FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODIFICATION MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY
SUNDAY...READING WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 03Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$





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