Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 241952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
252 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Strong low pressure continues to move northward in New England
with high pressure building into the local area through early
Wednesday. A fast moving cold front will cross the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with scattered showers.
Behind the cold front seasonably cool temperatures and dry
weather will return for the end of the week into early next
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc pressure gradient will be loosening this afternoon as low
pressure continues to lift north away from the region. Surface
high pressure and upper level ridging over the Mississippi River
Valley will move into the area tonight. A dry airmass will
continue to overspread the area with precipitable water falling
to one half inch or less. Mainly clear skies today and tonight.
Warm afternoon highs will average nearly 10 deg F above climo.
Lows tonight expected to cool to the upper 30s and lower 40s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and the upper level ridge will be over the
region Wednesday morning then begin moving away from the region
during the afternoon as the next cold front approaches from the
west. Cold front will move into the forecast area late
Wednesday night into the sunrise hours Thursday morning along
with a chance of showers. By late morning the cold front will be
moving offshore with cold advection overtaking the area. Strong
pressure gradient Thursday into Thursday night combined with
the cold air advection will result in strong and gusty winds
across the forecast area with a lake wind advisory becoming more
likely. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low 70s and
fall into the low 60s Thursday...with overnight lows in the low
to mid 50s Wednesday night and the mid 30s Thursday night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change for the long term forecast as relatively quiet
weather is expected to persist. High pressure ridge will be in
control of the southeastern states through much of the long term
with the main strom track just north of the forecast area. This
will keep temperatures below normal with dry conditions as cold
air mass remains over the eastern CONUS.
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hr TAF period.
An upper ridge axis will continue to move over the region from
the west tonight through Wednesday morning. Prevailing west
winds with occasional afternoon gusts are likely until mixing
diminishes later this afternoon. Gusts will likely be from the
west-northwest, with occasionally lighter west-southwest flow
due to lee troughing east of the mountains. The pressure
gradient will continue to weaken this afternoon and winds will
become light overnight. Fog is not expected to develop overnight
due to drier air near the surface. Flow will pick up from the
southwest late Wednesday morning with a few cirrus invading from
the west ahead of the next system.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There will be chance of showers with
associated restrictions Wednesday night and Thursday as a cold
front crosses the area. Gusty west-southwest winds with
sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts can also be expected with this