Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 281509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1009 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT COULD
BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
AND THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED LOW POPS. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEAK WEDGE PATTERN.
THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED H5 TROUGHING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RUN WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH LESS TROUGHING AND MOISTURE. THE
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM NEAR 50 PERCENT TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT...CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EKD MOS...AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AROUND 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z AS THE INVERSION ERODES THEN
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 17Z ONWARD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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