Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 251746
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
146 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level high pressure will remain over the region through early
next week, then begin to weaken mid to late next week. This will
maintain generally fair conditions through early week, though a
slight chance of afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible. The upper ridge will begin to weaken mid to
late next week, and an area of low pressure, possibly tropical,
could influence our weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue ridging into the forecast area
from the northeast. Upper ridging will also continue over the
region. Moisture will remain too shallow for showers. There may be
enough low-level moisture combined with nocturnal cooling for fog
late tonight, mainly at a few locations in the river valleys.
Some of the NAM and GFS MOS have fog during the early morning
hours. The temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high center will shift to the E/NE into the W Carolinas/Srn
Appalachians. Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard
will weaken and shift east, leaving a weak ridge axis along the
coast, as a weak surface trough slips into our northern FA. Despite
the upper high, it appears there could be just enough moisture and
diurnal instability that a slight chance of showers or isolated
thunderstorm could be possible, mainly northern FA near the trough
Friday afternoon. The surface trough appears will generally stall
near the northern FA Saturday. This, along with some low level
onshore flow and associated gradual moistening, that again a slight
chance of showers or isolated thunderstgorm possible Saturday
afternoon, northern FA near the trough, and possibly E/SE FA
near a sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper high center to remain over the region through early next week.
Surface trough appears will become diffuse and surface high pressure
will ridge down the eastern seaboard, increasing an ENE low level
flow and low level moisture, mainly S and E FA, Sunday into Tue.
Upper ridge progged to weaken mid to late week, with main focus
on an area of low pressure, which may organize into a tropical
cyclone and possibly affect our region. Given uncertainties,
accepted blend of guidance, indicating mainly chance pops mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect generally VFR conditions through the period, although
fog may occur late tonight at the river valley terminals of AGS
and OGB.

Surface high pressure will continue ridging into the forecast area
from the northeast. Upper ridging will also continue over the
region. Moisture will remain too shallow for showers. There may be
enough low-level moisture combined with nocturnal cooling for fog
late tonight, mainly at the river valley terminals of AGS and
OGB. The NAM and GFS MOS indicate MVFR fog in the 09z to 12z time
frame. Followed the NAM and GFS MOS for the wind forecast. Expect
mainly light easterly wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be widespread stratus and
fog associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during
the early morning hours Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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