Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 232257
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
657 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will move
northeast of the area early this evening. Clearing skies will
develop behind the front overnight. A dry, reinforcing cold
front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night bringing
cooler temperatures for mid week. Expect mostly clear skies
with a warming trend through late week. Another cold front will
approach the Southeast next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Cold front continues to cross the forecast with the front
currently stretched from the CLT area through Barnwell.
Convection continues to consist mainly of heavy rain with a few
thunderstorms. With instability and frontal forcing areas main
focus remains the eastern Midlands and with the front having
cleared the western Midlands and CSRA have already begun
clearing counties from the tornado watch. For areas east of the
CLT to BNL line the tornado watch will remain in place through
9pm. Severe threat remains low...however with some instability
closer to the coastal plain potential still remains. Satellite
imagery shows a very rapid transition from cloudy to clear skies
over the western Midlands with the clearing crossing the eastern
Midlands early tonight as the front pushes to the coast.
Overnight expect mostly clear skies over the forecast area with
winds veering to westerly and remaining around 5 mph. Overnight
lows will range from the low 50s in the western Midlands to the
upper 50s in the eastern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main cold front and any showers will be east of the area Tuesday
morning. Temperatures on Tuesday will still climb into the 70s as
the coldest air remains west of the area behind a reinforcing cold
front. Expect breezy conditions during the day with Bufkit wind
profiles suggesting gusts up to 20 mph, under Lake Wind Advisory
criteria. Gusts may continue into the evening as the reinforcing
cold front pushes through. Dry weather and slightly below normal
temperatures will prevail through Thursday night. Expect highs in
the mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday
looks to be the coldest morning with lows in the upper 30s to low
40s. Although, a moderate 15 kt low level jet (LLJ) will hinder
frost development in some of our area`s cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. High pressure sitting over
the area early in the period will moderate bringing warming
temperatures and increasing moisture from Friday to Saturday. A deep
upper trough will dig into the Southeast pushing another cold front
into the region Saturday or Sunday. Models still disagree on
the timing of the frontal passage. Colder temperatures and dry
weather return for early next week behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Convective line moving east and northeast of the Terminals at
23z...except may linger near OGB thru 01z. Cold front near AGS
will move east across the region early this evening. Clearing
already developing in East Central Ga and expect VFR conditions
to develop at all Terminals by 02z. Winds west-southwest and
diminishing during the evening but 5 to 10 knots expected
overnight. Although LAMP guidance suggesting fog possible toward
morning mixing in the boundary should limit development. So
with drying behind the front will leave morning fog out of tafs
even at fog prone sites. West-southwest winds will increase
late in the taf period to 10 to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected
through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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