Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 260829
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
329 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and dry pressure ridge will build over the area today.
Moisture returns Monday as high pressure moves off the coast.
Another cold front will cross the region around the middle of
next week with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Pressure ridge over the area today. Air mass dry and seasonable
temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Winds light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The surface high moves offshore tonight and Monday. Isentropic
lift and moisture flux develops during the day Monday. Believe
any showers should hold off until late in the day as moisture
shallow and lift weak. Mid level short waves in southwest flow
aloft Monday night may lead to an increase in showers although
large spread in pop guidance. Thunderstorm threat appears
limited due to lack of instability. Model differences Tuesday
with ECMWF drier than GFS. Focus for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Tuesday night may focus north of the area where warm
front sets up...but air mass likely moderately unstable in the
afternoon. Ensembles supports low chance pops and warm
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep late winter upper trough digs into the Plains states on
Wednesday and progresses into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the
end of the week.  A powerful cold front is forecast to sweep across
the Southeast U.S. Wednesday Night into Thursday morning.  Expect
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and with the front Wednesday into
Thursday morning.  Canadian high pressure will build into the
Eastern U.S. behind this system Thursday afternoon into next
weekend.  Temperatures will start out above climo for early March
and then drop to near or below climo by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Winds continue to slowly diminish as high pressure builds into
the area allowing the pressure gradient to relax. Northwest
winds currently remain around 10 knots and will become north-
northwest around 5 knots by 12z. As the high pressure becomes
centered over the area this afternoon winds will become light
and variable from 18z through the end of the period. With a dry
air mass over the area fog is not expected this morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in MVFR
and/or IFR restrictions Monday Night through Thursday morning as
a frontal system stalls over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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