Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 251513
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND WEAKEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED SATURDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE LIMITED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY STRETCHED FROM THE AUGUSTA VICINITY ESE TO
THE SE MIDLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OR POSSIBLY SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TODAY WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF FAVORING POPS TOWARDS
THAT AREA. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT WORKING IN...WHICH COULD REDUCE AREAL
COVERAGE. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALOFT COINCIENT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD PROVIDE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL IN THAT AREA. IN
ADDITION...ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING ECHOES NEAR THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR S FA COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HPC DAY ONE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS OUR SE FA IN A SLGT RISK.

WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS STILL
LINGERING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECTING GRADUAL
DISSIPATION THIS AFTERNOON DUE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CONVECTION
MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN
CSRA TO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...SOUTH OF CAE/CUB...BUT JUST NORTH
OF DNL/AGS...AND NEAR OGB. NORTH OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDINESS IN PROGRESS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT CAE/CUB IN THE NEAR TERM...UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING CAUSES THE CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND LIFT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE
THREAT WITH VCSH FOR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE
FRONT... DNL/AGS/OGB...AND UPGRADE LATER IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE
WARRANTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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