Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 310109
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
909 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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