Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 192345
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will sweep east across the region this
evening. High pressure and fair weather will build across the
area Sunday and Monday, with temperatures turning warmer and
more humid into early next week. Thunderstorms are probable on
Tuesday followed by a refreshingly cooler and mainly dry second
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Severe convective line pushing across central Pa this evening.
Based on extend of damage reports and rapid movement, have
expanded watch #457 into the Susq Valley.

HRRR runs, which should continue to perform well region of
strong forcing ahead of trough, indicate weakening convection
toward sunset over the east part of the forecast area late this
evening. Dry wx expected after midnight as high pressure builds
over the area. Models are showing low stratus potential over
the Alleghenies with weak upslope flow and low level moisture
trapped under subsidence inversion. Patchy fog is also likely in
the usual spots across the central valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather expected to end the weekend with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a
renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the
new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the
80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday.

There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass
through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will
be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next
week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting
late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as
scattered showers Wednesday.

The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and
mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of
southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broken line of thunderstorms extending from KIPT to just west
of KMDT and then southwest to near KMRB as of 00z.

Line continues to trek eastward at about 40kts...and should
clear eastern airfields by 03z.

Skies will clear rapidly from west to east behind the line.
Expecting fog development in most areas overnight. MVFR to
locally IFR conditions likely.

After morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions should prevail
across the region for Sunday.

Another VFR day for Monday, except again for some morning fog.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog.
Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely into the overnight.
Wed...Morning SHRA...then becoming VFR
Thu...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Jung


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