Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 012005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LVL RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AREAS
OF MVFR AND IFR IN VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. LCL LIFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR KBFD EARLY THU
MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING WITH ISOLD TO SCT MVFR
CIGS THU AFTN OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS (KJST AND KAOO PRIMARILY)
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN


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