Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 231814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical
ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring
the mention of isolated mainly afternoon or evening showers or
thunderstorms, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm
and humid but rain free.



A weak cold front pretty much bisects the state east to west with
lower dewpoints from about State College northward. Models show
this slightly drier air settling south through late day before the
front pretty much becomes indistinguishable.

I still have the smallest of chances for a pop up storm along the
Pa-Md border but the mid levels are still quite warm so confidence
is low. Just another hot dry day in a recent string of hot dry

Weak high pressure will settle over the area overnight. Other than
another night of patchy late night fog, it will be fair and mild
with lows mainly in the 60s.



Sunday will feature abundant sunshine for most of the day...along
with very warm to hot temps. 850 mb temps will be very similar to
today`s readings leading to highs once again well up into the 80s
to low/mid 90s.


Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting
into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical
ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus.
Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and
mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress
convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes
Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However,
any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern
we have been in. Latest GEFS mean qpf is up to a half an inch at

12Z ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps are near 22C Saturday through
Monday, indicating the potential of several days in a row with
highs in the 90s in the valleys. The hottest temps look to be on
Saturday as latest GEFS gives high temperature anomalies in the
+4 standard deviation and have slightly backed off on Sunday. Have
adjusted Max temperatures accordingly. Heat indices around 100F
appear possible by Mon across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints
are advected into the area ahead of potential convection.
Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at
night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with
highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears
likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However,
temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a
generally zonal flow.

Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.



Widespread VFR is the rule as of early afternoon, and it will
continue into the overnight with just some areas of fog expected
for a couple of hours either side of sunrise in a few locations.

A gusty west to WNW wind will diminish to 10kt or less around or
just after sunset this evening.

There is a very small chance for a shower or thunderstorm to pop
up over the very southern portions of the flying area later this
afternoon or early evening. No mention of this low probability
event in the TAFs at this time.

Sunday also looks hot and dusty. Winds should be lighter with the
surface ridge overhead.


MON...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

TUE-WED...No sig wx.

THU...mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
in the afternoon.




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