650
FXUS63 KEAX 140402
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger through
  the afternoon and evening, gradually shifting south and
  eastward. Localized heavy rainfall resulting in ponding and
  pooling of water is possible.

- A break in the activity Monday before more storm chances
  return for the rest of the week.

- Many uncertainties persist with the upcoming pattern. Guidance
  continues to suggest a potential for localized heavy rainfall,
  especially across far northern MO.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Weak flow, warm air, and saturated air dominates the pattern for
today. Light and variable winds have kept the pattern fairly
stagnant. A storm system across central MO this morning along with
residual outflow boundaries from storms last night has resulted in
some slow moving pop-up storms around the area. Cold pools and
outflow from these storms are sustaining pulse storms. Localized
heavy downpours are possible and periodic training of storms could
create localized flooding risks; however, observations and reports
have shown that runoff is generally meeting the rain rate keeping
flooding impacts fairly subdued.

An upper level shortwave finally ushers the trough axis through the
region. This can be seen on radar and satellite with the slow
southward movement of showers combined with the advancing clearing
skies behind this present environment. As rain pushes out of the
area through the evening overnight, clear skies, radiational
cooling, and fresh rainfall (thus low level saturated air) creates a
suitable environment for fog development. Forecast guidance paints
visibility impacts ranging from 2-5 miles with some patchy <1 mile
visibilities possible. Fog is expected to dissipate mid morning
tomorrow.

Shortwave ridging behind this trough calms skies down for Monday.
Stagnant flow keeps saturated air around; however, the lack of lower
level flow makes diurnal processes the primary driver of heating.
This lack of additional warm air advection keeps temperatures and
heat indicies from reach oppressive levels, but it is still going to
feel quite warm out there with the lack of wind making it a bit
muggy and stuffy.

This weak flow pattern continues to dominate the upper levels with
much of the flow on the 500mb map looking quite disorganized. Zonal
flow across the northern CONUS contrasts with a high or low block
across the souther CA coast. Several weaker pressure systems across
the SE CONUS. These mild perturbations across the eastern CONUS will
be enough to develop some showers and storms over the next several
days. Starting with Tuesday, most of the region should remain dry;
however, a small wave works through the eastern half of MO which
could bring some isolated to scattered storm chances across SW and
central MO during the afternoon and evening. Stronger precipitation
chances arrive late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as a deeper
shortwave traverses the more zonal northern midlevel flow that dips
into southern IA/northern MO. This will likely manifest itself as an
overnight MCS. Given near 2 inch PWAT values supports the potential
for expansive heavy rainfall across the northern part of the state.
High rainfall totals are expected to be fairly localized making it
difficult to pinpoint where the heavies rain will fall. Multiple
factors could alter the rainfall outlook with the overall track of
the storm being the most influential.

Throughout Wednesday, the zonal flow to the north begins to push
southward. This combined with the breakdown of the western Rex block
begins to create strengthening pressure gradients across the central
part of the country. This increases the flow of warm air and
moisture into the region as well as creates more opportunities for
convection. The peak timing for these storms looks to be Wednesday
night as the low level jet begins to accelerate through the evening
hours. This looks to blossom convection across the kinematic
boundary which looks to continue into Thursday morning.
Predictability of strong to severe storms during that time period
remains too low with many uncertainties remaining. Guidance paints a
very broad distribution of precipitation extending from the front
range all the way to the Appalachians. This seems rather excessive
and will likely become more precise as timing gets closer. Still
earlier forecast expectations combined with seasonally high PWATS
and a synoptic depiction suggesting storms moving parallel to a
frontal boundary paint a possibility for potentially hazardous heavy
rainfall later in the week. As guidance resolves short term
challenges and higher resolution guidance comes into range, the
extent of convective coverage will become more refined.

Extended guidance looks to continue this pattern of broadscale
pressure systems and subtle shortwaves sparking storms. GFS suggests
the eventual development of a broad high across the southern CONUS
which pushes the zonal flow back northward. This high eventually
fights for dominance across the CONUS; however, in that process,
several shortwave troughs embedded in the perimeter flow trigger
scattered convection throughout the forecast period much like we
have been seeing the past several week. The good news is that this
keeps temperatures from rising to oppressive levels. Heat index
values do look to approach triple digits several times, but passing
shortwave troughs with weak cold fronts and precipitation knock
heat index values back down before they can crest the 100
degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light and
variable winds. Guidance has trended much more bullish on fog
development by early Monday morning, so now have the KC metro
terminals with 2SM and BR from 9z to 14z. At STJ, have 1SM and
BR from 8z to 14z, with a TEMPO group for 1/2SM FG and VV002
from 9z to 12z Monday. It is possible that some, if not all,
terminals could see VIS fall to 1SM or less during this time
period, and amendments will be issued as necessary. Fog should
mix out by around 14z Monday, returning terminals to VFR. Light
winds (6 knots or less) should continue through the period, with
winds becoming easterly or southeasterly by mid to late Monday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BMW