Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 012103
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Lots to talk about in the near term...so let/s dive right into the
details. Severe convection ongoing across the CWA this afternoon
along and south of remnant outflow boundary from this morning/s
activity. While 0-1km bulk shear remains marginal for tornadic
development...very recent radar trends and storm reports suggesting
a brief spin up over the Cooper County area. That said...best
instability this afternoon remains across the southern half of the
fcst area and current tornado watch is in effect through 10 PM. With
shear aloft continuing to increase...expect severe threat to continue
into the evening...well south of the KC metro based on where best
instability currently resides.

Heading into tonight...severe threat rapidly transitions into a hydro
concern as short term guidance (including high-res models) is in great
agreement that abnormally moist conditions from the Gulf (PWAT values
approaching 1.50" per latest blended TPW satellite graphics) will
begin interacting with a stalled front across southern MO thanks to
a strengthening low-level jet. That said...remarkable agreement on
placement of heavy precip axis which models suggest will run from
west to east along the far southern fringes of our fcst area. That
said...have elected to hoist a flash flood watch for the southern two
tiers of counties...which agrees very well with both LSX and SGF. If
current indications are right...would not be surprised to see a few
4+ inch reports especially further south in SGF/s area. WPC excessive
rain forecast currently has a moderate risk for the current watch area.

Shwrs/storms likely ongoing Thurs morning with trends again shifting
back to severe as long advertised cold front approaches. Orientation
of 0-6 km bulk shear vectors will decisively go more southwesterly as
strong Pacific trough now over the Intermountain West approaches. GFS
and to a lesser degree the NAM actually show the trough going
negative tilt as it moves through the area which may support fairly
strong and possibly fast moving convection ahead of the main sfc
boundary. Cross sections cut from the KS/CO line east through St.
Louis indicate pre-frontal convection developing along a possible
cold front aloft with additional/shwr-type activity following along
the main sfc front later in the day. Regardless...the magnitude of
shear aloft and orientation of the bulk shear vectors should support
a damaging wind threat as multicells congeal into a possible squall
line or multiple individual bowing segments.

Beyond this...conditions rapidly dry out Thursday night as post
frontal airmass moves into the area. Overnight lows early Friday
morning may be down into the lower 40s across far northern portions of
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Deep cyclonic flow behind Thursday night`s front will usher in
cooler conditions for Friday. Given the magnitude of post-frontal
cold air advection, highs on Friday were nudged down a couple of
more degrees into the middle and upper 50s despite mostly clear
skies. With the mixing that will result and a 50-kt LLJ on the back
side, there could be a few gusts as high as 40 mph especially Friday
morning and early afternoon.

Weakening winds Friday night and continued clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 30s for many areas by sunrise
Saturday. A reinforcing shot of cool air on Saturday will keep highs
in the mid/upper 50s for most areas. Deep upper trough will maintain
its hold across the eastern two-thirds of the country through early
next week, although slight height rises this far west will allow
temperatures to moderate somewhat into the upper 60s and low 70s for
Sunday and Monday and into the upper 70s by Wednesday. Low-level
ridging and dry air should keep things dry through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Weak isolated convection developing across west-central MO this
afternoon in advance of mid-level energy approaching from the west.
Bulk of this activity should be fairly weak and have started all
sites with a VCTS mention to account for current radar trends.
Heading into tonight...fcst models show redeveloping convection along
a lingering outflow boundary which is apparent on VIS satellite
imagery this afternoon. Latest model trends suggest this activity
should largely remain south of area terminals. In any
event...increasing warm air advection along and north of feature will
set the stage for developing low stratus at area terminals during the
early morning hrs. Beyond this...convection looks to increase after
15z from west to east as main cold front approaches.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     evening FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     evening FOR MOZ033-040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32





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