Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281151 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z Update/
Cigs this morning are MVFR across the I-35 corridor and VFR at KDRT.
As mid and high clouds continue to stream across the area from the SW
cigs will vary from MVFR to VFR. Expect after 16Z-17Z all locations
will become VFR. Winds will southerly at 5-10 knots. A cold front
will move south into the area this afternoon. Looks like terminals
will begin to see impacts from shra/tsra around 20z-21z. There should
be a line of showers and thunderstorms that develops and moves south
across the area. Behind the front winds become N-NE at 10-15 knots.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
this evening and overnight. THis system may be far enough south that
impacts will be reduced across South Central Texas, but for now have
continued -tsra/-shra through the remainder of the forecast. Later
shifts will need to adjust timing and coverage for overnight
activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Upper level clouds are moving from the southwest to northeast across the
area as an upper level short-wave moves over South Central Texas. At
the surface, low level moisture continues to push to the north with
the help of a southerly wind flow off the Gulf. There may be a
slight chance for drizzle over few spots along the escarpment this
morning, otherwise, cloudy to mostly cloudy across the eastern two-
thirds of the area with some clearing across portions of the Rio
Grande and Edwards Plateau through late this morning.

As the day goes by and we enter into the afternoon and evening
period, a cold front is forecast to push across the Hill Country and
produce strong to severe thunderstorms. The storms will quickly form
along the frontal boundary as soon the cap weakens around 4 PM this
afternoon. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
develop and expand across the Hill Country and the escarpment late
this afternoon into the evening hours. Main hazards will be large
hail and thunderstorm damaging winds. The frontal boundary may slow
down once it gets to the I-35 corridor. This could result in
localized flash flooding over some areas as precipitable water values
will be between 1.8 to 1.9 inches according to area forecast
soundings and HiRes solutions.

The Texas Tech, ARW and RAP models suggest a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms across the southwest counties later in the
evening as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops. If this
solution is right, then storms will concentrate over that region and
then moving on to the southeast into the Corpus Christi CWA late
tonight into the overnight hours.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms could still occur across
parts of South Central Texas, especially the southern counties, however,
the threat of severe thunderstorms diminishes and localized flash
flooding increases over that region.

A wet pattern continues across the area for Memorial Day with showers
and storms expected to develop mainly in the afternoon hours along
and east of Interstate 35. Severe storms are not anticipate for this
period.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Several upper level disturbances will be moving across the area for
the several days and we are carrying chances for rain through the
rest of the week into next weekend. Temperatures should be slightly
below normal values for much of the week with highs in the mid 80s
due to wet grounds and cloudiness.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  69  82  67  86 /  40  50  50  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  69  81  66  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  70  80  66  85 /  30  60  50  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            87  67  80  65  83 /  50  40  30  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  71  85  68  84 /  40  40  30  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  68  81  66  84 /  50  50  40  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             92  71  83  67  86 /  30  60  40  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  68  82  66  85 /  30  60  50  30  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  70  82  67  85 /  20  70  70  40  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  70  82  68  85 /  30  60  50  30  40
Stinson Muni Airport           93  70  80  68  85 /  20  60  50  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...17



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