Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 282357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF KAUS FOR FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL HOWEVER. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED SO DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS REACHING
TERMINALS FOR KSAT OR KSSF. MVFR AT KSAT/KSSF WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS INDICATED LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT
LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IN 06Z PACKAGE IF LATER
MODEL RUNS TREND FURTHER TOWARDS LIFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
28/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH A DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THIS FRONT HAS MANAGED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED
WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN A BIT STUBBORN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
HAS LEFT A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THIS
EXTRA HEATING COULD AIR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL THINK THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL HANG
TOUGH AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
ANY STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO DEL RIO
LINE.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN ONE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TEXAS-TECH WRF...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
FOR TOMORROW GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FAIRLY GOOD ON MONDAY AND IF THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT...WE WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN LATER
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  68  88  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  68  86  64 /  30  60  60  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  68  87  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  82  63  87  60 /  30  60  40  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  90  62  90  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  86  61 /  30  60  50  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  90  66 /  30  50  50  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  68  85  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  83  68 /  30  50  70  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  85  69  88  66 /  30  50  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  87  70  88  67 /  30  50  50  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



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