Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 050523
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO AND THESE SHOULD BEGIN
TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASES WITH THESE CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.5KFT AND WILL SHOW THIS IN THE TAFS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF IFR AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT CANT RULE
IT OUT AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AROUND 16Z AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MINOR UPDATES WERE ALSO MADE TO WINDS...DEW
POINTS AND SKY COVER. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  76  99  76 /  -    0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  98  74  98  74 /  -    0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  75  98  75 /  -    0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  75  98  74 /  -    0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  78 101  77 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  74  99  74 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  -    0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  77  98  77 /  -    0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  76  99  76 /  -    0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17


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