Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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757
FXUS64 KEWX 142350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING
IFR AT LEAST FOR THE I35 TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
KSAT/KSSF FALLING TO LIFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KAUS
AROUND 14Z AND KSAT/KSSF BY 16Z. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND BRING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH BY NOON
TUESDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEXAS WILL LIE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UPPER FLOW NORTHWESTERLY. DURING THIS TIME AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA SWITCHING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY. MOST OF THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT BY SATURDAY THERE MAY BE
DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  76  49  80  51 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  75  44  78  46 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  78  47  80  49 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  73  45  78  48 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           48  81  48  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        53  73  45  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             48  80  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        53  76  46  78  48 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  76  47  79  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  48  79  51 /  -   -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  79  48  80  50 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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