Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 241140
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
540 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
The only mentionable aviation concerns expected in this TAF period
is an approaching cold front expected to shift winds to the north
late tonight. Winds behind the front are only forecast to reach 10-15
kts at most thus only minor crosswind impacts limited to east/west
oriented runways is expected.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
An upper level trough is over the western states. A shortwave lifts
out of this trough and moves across the Central Plains today forcing
a cold front into northwestern Texas. A warmer southwest to south
lower level flow off the Mexican Plateau strengthens ahead of the
front leading to record or near record high temperatures today,
January 24th, across the Hill Country to along I-35 with well above
normal high temperatures elsewhere. The record highs for today are
listed in the climate section below. As the shortwave moves further
out into the Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley tonight, it
forces the cold front across South Central Texas. Moisture
convergence along the front may allow for isolated showers along and
east of Highway 77 during the overnight hours. A surface high builds
into our area in the wake of the front as the upper level trough
moves out into the Plains. In spite of cold advection, high
temperatures will remain above normal on Wednesday.
LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The upper level trough moves further to the east and in combination
with shortwaves dropping south from Canada deepens over the central
and eastern states later this week into this weekend. A shortwave
drops south across the Rockies later this week and closes off over
northwestern Mexico this weekend. Another cold front moves across
South Central Texas Friday night into Saturday. Isentropic lift
develops in the wake of the front and combined with the right
entrance region of an upper level jet, isolated to scattered showers
are expected mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau
Friday night into Saturday, though could be as far east as the San
Antonio area. The lift weakens and the jet shifts to the southeast
ending the showers by Saturday evening. Otherwise, fair weather is
expected with near normal temperatures, except below normal on
Saturday due to the clouds and showers. A light freeze is possible
in some Hill Country spots Wednesday night and Saturday night. The
closed low over Mexico this weekend could bring rain beyond this
forecast for the middle of next week.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau today due to afternoon humidities in the upper
teens to 20s and west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly across the Rio
Grande Plains on Wednesday due to afternoon humidities in the upper
teens and northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph while elevated fire
weather conditions are expected elsewhere due to afternoon humidities
in the upper teens to 20s and northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions may linger Thursday due to low
humidities, however, winds will be less than 10 mph.
Record Highs for Tuesday, January 24th:
Austin Bergstrom....82 set in 1950
Austin Camp Mabry...81 set in 2013
Del Rio.............89 set in 1943
San Antonio Intl....85 set in 1971
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 82 52 67 39 61 / 0 10 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 51 68 37 61 / 0 10 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 52 70 38 63 / 0 10 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 83 45 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 83 48 67 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 80 48 65 36 59 / 0 - 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 86 49 72 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 82 51 68 37 62 / 0 10 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 55 68 39 61 / 0 20 - 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 84 52 70 39 64 / 0 - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 86 52 72 40 65 / 0 - 0 0 0