Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 080426
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1026 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
Winds are beginning to gust ahead of the coldest air which is
now moving into North and West Texas. Breezy northerly winds will
continue through tomorrow afternoon before beginning to diminish.
MVFR ceilings will also be in place until late tomorrow afternoon.
There may be some sprinkles at the I-35 TAF sites this evening,
but no impacts are expected for the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

UPDATE...
The ongoing forecast looks to be in good shape. We`re starting to
see some stronger winds in northern Texas and these will move
south through the night. Expecting wind advisory strength winds
during the day Thursday. Cold air will move in with the strong
winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
A few weak echos starting to show up on radar this afternoon
across the southeastern counties. Isolated showers will be
possible through this area for the remainder of the afternoon and
tonight ahead of the front. The cold front is still on track to
enter the northern CWA after midnight and clear the southern CWA
before daybreak.

Colder behind the front and windy throughout the day on Thursday.
Funneling of winds along the edge of the escarpment will lead to
the strongest winds along and just east of the I-35 corridor,
where gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. This will prompt a Wind
Advisory for this region. Temperatures on Thursday likely not to
make it out of the upper 30s across the Hill Country and low to
mid 40s elsewhere. Combined with the winds, wind chill values will
be in the mid to upper 20s across the Hill Country and 30s
elsewhere during the day on Thursday.

Models continue to indicate some light QPF being generated well
behind the front on Thursday across West Central Texas into
Central Texas, clipping the far northern CWA. This appears to be
is association with ascent near the right entrance region of an
upper level jet streak. In the cloud layer temperatures are
supportive of ice introduction. However forecast models have come
in warmer with the warm nose between 800-700mb, beneath the cloud
base, but also drier. This could result in wet bulbing but should
remain just warm enough to support a light rain or light sleet mix
using the top down approach. A slight chance of rain/sleet mix
remains in the forecast mainly north of a Fredericksburg to
Georgetown line. We anticipate ground temperatures, including
elevated structures, to remain just above freezing and combined
with the light QPF amounts do not expect any significant impacts.

Models have trended slightly stronger with the winds staying up
Friday night near and east of I-35, and also a deg or two warmer
on the overnight temps. We are still expected a widespread freeze
across the Hill Country Thursday night/Friday morning in the mid
20s, with freezing temps of 9-12 hours in this region. Along the
I-35 corridor and east, north of I-10, lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s are expected with a freeze likely in the Austin metro area
but less certain now in San Antonio. Temps farther south and along
the Rio Grande are forecast to remain just above freezing.

Wind chill values Thursday night into Friday morning will dip into
the upper teens across the Hill Country and 20s elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Continued cold temperatures on Friday with highs only in the 40s,
but much less wind and partially clearing skies should make it
feel warmer compared to Thursday. A return flow will set-up
Saturday and Sunday with gradually modifying temperatures. Some
slight chances for showers across the central and eastern
counties over the weekend. Models are still indicating another
front on Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              39  41  29  45  35 /  20  10  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  41  43  30  45  34 /  30  10  -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     42  44  31  45  35 /  30  10  -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            34  38  26  43  33 /  20  30  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           42  44  34  47  35 /  10  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        37  39  27  44  34 /  20  30  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             43  45  30  47  35 /  10  10  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        41  43  30  45  35 /  30  10  -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   44  46  30  47  35 /  40  20  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       43  44  32  46  37 /  20  10  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           45  46  33  47  38 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Thursday for the following
counties: Bastrop...Bexar...Caldwell...Comal...Gonzales...
Guadalupe...Hays...Lee...Medina...Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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