Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
952 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough today through Saturday to challenge long-standing high
temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected
early next week.


The unseasonably warm Thanksgiving forecast remains on track, and
no significant updates are anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /417 AM MST/...Only minor changes to the forecast
through the holiday weekend as an unseasonably strong area of
high pressure remains parked over the southwest United States.
High temperatures each day will range from 15-20+ degrees above
average for late November, with records falling in some locations.
Some occasional high cloudiness is expected today and Friday, but
generally thin enough to allow for mostly sunny skies. Wind
speeds will be light.

By Monday into Tuesday, a trough is forecast to move eastward
across the region. While most of the moisture with the system will
remain north of the state, the latest runs indicate a slight
chance of some showers, mainly along the UT/AZ border. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of the front Monday should become north to
northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures by Tuesday will
be cooler, possibly even slightly below normal before beginning a
warm up on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions under
mostly clear skies and light winds. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Record warmth will continue into the weekend as
warm high pressure remains over the southwest. Expect daytime
highs of 15 to 20 degrees above average. Wind speeds will
generally remain light.

A trough approaching the area from the west on Sunday will lead to
increasing southwest wind speeds. As the trough moves through
the region Monday and Monday night, it will push a mostly dry cold
front through northern Arizona. Expect windy conditions Monday
into Tuesday with the frontal passage.






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