Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 300502

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 PM MST THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across
northern Arizona on Friday. Drier air is expected this weekend,
followed by increasing southwest winds and cooler temperatures
from a passing weather system early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have decreased across
northern Arizona this evening. Will trim back POPS for eastern
sections tonight. HRRR and NAM12 do show more development across far
northwest Coconino County later tonight so will leave forecast alone
over the Kaibab Plateau.


.PREV DISCUSSION /433 PM MST/...Satellite and radar imagery reveal
decreased shower activity and cloud cover across most of northern
Arizona south of Interstate 40. The remaining activity is expected
to decrease in intensity while dissipating from south to north
through the evening and overnight hours. With that said, some storms
may persist in the White Mountains region into the overnight hours
from convection moving northward from Graham and Greenlee counties.

On Friday, drying conditions are forecast behind a passing trough.
The forecast continues to call for chances of thunderstorms, but
coverage is expected to be considerably less than today. Over the
weekend, expect near average temperatures and dry weather as
southwest flow develops ahead of a deep low pressure system
approaching the west coast.

Models continue to indicate that a west coast low will pass north
of Arizona on Monday, pushing a cold front across the state.
Winds along and ahead of the front could become strong with gusts
40+ mph a possibility. Most of the moisture with the system
appears that it will stay north of the state at this point with
only low PoPs for our forecast area. Daytime highs early next week
should be around 10 degrees below average. Overnight lows have the
potential to be the coldest we have seen so far this season,
especially if overnight winds are able to diminish. Some areas
above 6000 feet could see the first hard freeze of the fall
Tuesday or Wednesday mornings.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Any remaining -shra/-tsra north
of KGCN and east of KSOW will dissipate by 07z-08z. Mainly clearing
skies overnight, patchy sc with bases 7-10kft agl. Patchy low clouds
and fog possible over higher elevation through 12z-14z. After 16z
Friday, expect sct-bkn cigs with bases from 8-10kft agl and isold
-shra/-tsra. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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