Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281629

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure center will shift east into New Mexico
this afternoon with decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity over
northern Arizona. Gusty northerly winds will develop this afternoon
and continue into early Wednesday. Another system will move into
northern Arizona from the northwest late Thursday through
Saturday bringing strong southwesterly winds and showers.

.DISCUSSION...The low is centered near the Four Corners this morning
with warp around moisture moving north to south over northern
Arizona. Most of the shower activity has now moved east of the I-
17/Highway 89 corridor as the low shifts eastward. Current grids
have this trend of showers decreasing from west to east covered


.PREV DISCUSSION /412 AM MST/...Lingering shower activity will
diminish through the day today as a low pressure system slides east
of the area. There remains the potential for a few thunderstorms
this morning and afternoon east of Highway 89 and I-17. Behind this
system, gusty northerly winds will develop with areas south of the
higher terrain favored for the strongest winds tonight. Gusty winds
will become more widespread on Wednesday morning as the inversion
breaks. Winds are then expected to decrease during the afternoon and
evening as weak ridging moves in. Wednesday and Thursday morning
will be dry before the next storm system moves into the region.

There still remains uncertainty as to how far south this system
will track and how quickly it will exit to the east. Therefore,
confidence in the amount of precipitation that will fall is low.
However, there is increasing confidence in a period of strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the system later Thursday into
Friday. At this time, it appears wind advisories will likely be
needed and some favored southwesterly downslope locations could
near wind warning criteria. This will continue to be fine tuned as
we get closer to the event.

The active pattern looks to continue into early next week with
another storm system dropping southeast and potentially impacting
northern Arizona Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue through late afternoon or early
evening east of a KPAN-KINW-0V7 line. MVFR ceilings/visibilities
will be possible under the stronger storms. Elsewhere, an extensive
cumulus field will develop along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with
cloud bases at or above 11 kft msl. Gusty northeast to northwest
winds will increase through the afternoon, with wind speeds between
10-20 knots and gusts between 20-30 knots. While winds will decrease
at most places after 01Z Wednesday, strong northerly winds will
continue overnight at locations to the south of high terrain.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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