Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 240346 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
846 PM MST MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the coming week as a series of weather
disturbances brush northern Arizona. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms for far northern Arizona Wednesday into Thursday.
.DISCUSSION...Gusty spring winds remain in the forecast each day
with wind speeds decreasing each night as the ground cools off and
a nocturnal surface inversion sets up. A weak Pacific low rolls across
Arizona bringing slight chances, 10 to 20 percent, for a few
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday mainly
over mountain areas along and north of the Interstate 40
corridor. No significant precipitation amounts expected for the
foreseeable future. Wind directions become more westerly on
Thursday and Friday.
.PREV DISCUSSION /333 PM MST/... A large low pressure system
currently off the coast of southern California continues to bring
cool and breezy conditions to the region for the first half of the
week. As this system dips into Arizona on Wednesday and Thursday,
winds should taper off and thunderstorm chances increase. Models
remain uncertain as to the southern extent of precipitation
associated with this system, however confidence is growing in at
least some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring north of
A slight warm up back to near-normal temperatures should begin
Friday as this first system lifts northeast into Colorado.
However, models are indicating a continued, albeit weak,
troughiness across the region through the weekend. While
precipitation chances remain uncertain, potential exists for some
shower and thunderstorm activity near the Utah border.
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
over northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday
as pressure gradients favoring southwesterly surface winds remain in
place. Near critical fire weather conditions at lower elevations
each afternoon. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms may
develop late Wednesday as a trough approaches the fire district.
Thursday through Saturday...Winds trending lighter for the period.
The passage of weak weather disturbances will bring with it slight
chances for thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday.
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