Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300433
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP INTO
ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE DOWNWARD MOVING AIR HAS
CAPPED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ALLOWING DEEPER SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WHICH ENHANCED STORM ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE MOVED EAST AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT HAS
BROUGHT DOWNWARD MOVING SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE REGION. THIS DOWNWARD
MOVING AIR WARMS...DRIES AND STABILIZES THE MID LEVELS...CREATING A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 500 MILLIBARS WHICH TENDS TO
SUPPRESS VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH. SHALLOWER CLOUD LAYERS UNDER A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT SEVERELY LIMITS CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. THIS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING US IN A LOW GRADE MONSOON PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER. BY SATURDAY...GOOD MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SO...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/RR
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.