Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 PM MST Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Less wind and a warming trend are expected this
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. The chance for
afternoon thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon and continue
through next week.


.DISCUSSION...Wind speeds have significantly decreased across
northern Arizona over the last couple of hours. Little to no cloud
cover will allow efficient radiative cooling this evening, with
low temperatures ranging from the mid 30`s to upper 40`s across
much of the High Country. The current forecast captures these
trends well and no updates are planned for this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /324 PM MST/...Dry southwesterly flow remains
over Arizona today with a trough situated to our north. The trough
begins to head east tonight, when we will finally see a decrease
in winds. Strong winds from earlier this morning north of the
White Mountains have subsided, though a few gusts near 40 mph
continue so will keep the Wind Advisory going as is through early
this evening. A Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
portions of eastern Arizona through this evening.

A large amplitude ridge will build over the western U.S. through
the weekend resulting in very pleasant spring weather. Expect
near to above average temperatures and light winds.

By Monday, enough moisture moves into eastern Arizona to produce
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will favor
eastern Arizona near the New Mexico border but may extend as far
west as Flagstaff and perhaps the Grand Canyon.

We made very few changes to the extended forecast for next week.
Moisture will keep thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon.
There is some indication that models are backing off slightly on
the western extent of the moisture, but not confident enough right
now to make changes. A low developing over the southwest by mid
to late next week may prolong shower/thunderstorm activity through
the week, but confidence is low in this scenario at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies will continue over northern Arizona for the next 24
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will subside substantially this weekend.
Daytime temperatures will warm a few degrees each day.

Monday through Wednesday...There is a chance for thunderstorms over
Apache County Monday, with better chances for thunderstorms over all
of northern Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday.






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