Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry and cold conditions are expected today, with
any lingering snow showers near the White Mountains ending after
sunrise. Dry and cool weather persist Wednesday, before another
storm bring increasing southwest winds and a chance for rain and
snow late Thursday through Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Mid-level moisture has been slow to move east this
morning, with snow showers continuing along a trough axis that is
extended into southern and central Apache county. Lower levels have
been showing a drying trend as winds shift westerly behind the cold
front from earlier. This will eventually shut down the shower
activity, most likely before Noon MST. We will allow current
headlines to expire at 5 AM MST.

Very cold and dry air over the region will make for a cold start
today, with much of the high country barely reaching the freezing
mark. Expect clear and cold conditions tonight, with another dry and
cold day on Wednesday.

All eyes then turn to the next storm, due late Thursday through
Friday. This system has been trending wetter and also has very cold
temperatures. Southwest winds will become gusty once again Thursday
and Friday, with rain and snow showers spreading from west to east.
Snow levels will be quite low once again with this storm, especially
toward the end of the event. We will wait for some better model
agreement, but we have trended upward with POPs and QPF for now.

Dry conditions and moderating temperatures are anticipated over the
weekend, with yet another storm possible by early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Snow showers will persist in the
White Mountains with local MVFR/IFR conditions generally from KSOW
east through about 15Z, before dissipating. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions today with westerly winds around 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Snow showers will diminish in the White Mountains
this morning with otherwise dry and cold weather expected through
Wednesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal.
Westerly winds today will become southerly Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Another cold weather system is forecast
to move into Arizona late this week. Expect increased southwesterly
winds Thursday and Friday, with chances for additional snow Thursday
night through Friday. Saturday will see drier weather, with slightly
warmer temperatures.






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