Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231557
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
857 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING FEW STORM THIS
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF APACHE AND
NAVAJO COUNTIES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT DOWN TURN OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS AND GPS DERIVED PRECIPTITABLE WATER ARE DOWN ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING...AND THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL
WARMING THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SO...FOR
TODAY...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WHERE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN MAY INSTIGATE VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /AZ 548 AM/...

BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT...WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE
BRINGING THE MOISTURE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...GFS
ENSEMBLE TENDS TO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE SREF PW SPREAD DOES INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COME EVEN FARTHER WEST
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
TAPERING OFF LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AREA
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AZ. SW TO W WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20-25 KTS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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