Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191015
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTED REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FIGHTING
AGAINST DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ISOLATED TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.