Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202220
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS MAY RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COVERAGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING. CONVECTIVE CELL COVERAGE TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
A FAST MOVING RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE. PROGS HANG KEEP MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER THUS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS THERE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE AZ UT BORDER
ARON MIDNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 14KFT MSL ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA / -TSRA THROUGH 03Z THEN
DECREASING. SKC-SCT250 ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON -TSRA ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ON
MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ALONG THE AZ NM STATE LINE
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY BOTH DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TUESDAY FOR
AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL HUMIDITY
THRESHOLDS. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES FAR NORTHERN AZ. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

FAIR WEATHER WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS IS
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.



&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AZ FIRE ZONES 105>110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












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