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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262344
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region
  Saturday afternoon and evening. All hazards will be possible.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the day Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A closed upper low continues to lift to the northeast this
afternoon, bringing scattered showers to the region through the day.
 Showers appear to have moved out of most of the eastern tiers of
counties.  However, additional showers are on the doorstep of
western Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties.  A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms may continue to be possible through the rest
of this afternoon and into this evening.  Overnight lows will fall
into the 40s across the region.  A few isolated 30s may be possible
across portions of eastern Colorado.

Heading into Saturday, the Tri-State area comes under southwest
flow, with a closed upper low over the Four Corners region.  Through
the day, the low will move east, across southeastern Colorado and
into northwestern Kansas.  Portions of the area will have a boundary
draped southwest to northeast across central Kansas.  Another
boundary will be coming in from the south.  CAMS have been showing
the potential for thunderstorm development over the area Saturday
afternoon.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with all
hazards expected.  The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for
severe weather over the area. CAMS are showing storms
developing over our area tomorrow afternoon and move across the
area. After yesterday`s thunderstorms, portions of the area may
need to be monitored for possibly hydrology issues.

Heading into Sunday, the closed low will continue to lift to the
northeast, into central Nebraska.  Precipitation is expected to
taper off southwest to northeast through the day.  Expect highs to
be in the 50s and 60s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A relatively calm pattern is expected in the long-term.
Northwesterly flow Monday will become zonal and eventually
southwesterly into Wednesday morning. We could see a weak shortwave
move through the area Tuesday night, increasing PoPs into the teens
across the northern CWA.

Tuesday afternoon is looking dry, with minimum RH values in the
upper teens in Greeley county. Winds will be gusting around 20
kts, leading to elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Prolonged fire weather conditions currently look
unlikely (~15%), but cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday or Thursday looks like it will be the next chance at an
impactful event. A positively tilted upper-level trough will impact
the region in this timeframe. Details are very murky for this run of
model guidance, but PoPs are in the teens to 30s for Wednesday night
through Thursday. Storms are possible during this time, confidence
that severe weather will occur is less than 15%.

Lingering showers and low end storms will continue for the remainder
of the period, but may clear out sooner if the trough moves to the
east quicker.

Temperatures are forecast to warm up through Wednesday, mid 70s to
mid 80s are expected. The current forecast has the cold front
coming through Thursday morning, so cooler temperatures will
result. Highs in the upper 60s for Thursday will result with
temperatures increasing about 5 degrees Friday. Overnight
temperatures will be fairly stable in the 40s for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KGLD: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of
the overnight hours. Winds will continue to decrease to ~ 5-10
kts as they become more northerly after sunset. Ceilings will
lift heading into the evening and overnight hours. Winds shift
to the northeast tomorrow and ceilings are expected to lower to
MVFR during the morning (~15-18Z) as another storm system moves
in after 18Z. With a lack of confidence in storm coverage for
tomorrow afternoon, have decided to leave them out of the TAFs
at this time.

At KMCK: VFR conditions are expected to continue through much
of the overnight hours. Northwest winds will gradually shift to
the north/northeast tomorrow morning remaining at 5-10 kts.
After ~20Z, showers and storms are possible at least within the
vicinity of the terminal. With a lack of confidence in storm
coverage for tomorrow afternoon, have decided to leave them out
of the TAFs at this time.

Any thunderstorm activity tomorrow may result in reductions to
visibility and wind shifts at both terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

With the rainfall received over the region in the past 24
hours, and what is expected from showers and storms today and
this weekend, we will be monitoring those areas already prone
from recent rains. With some locales receiving 1-2" already and
the potential for another localized 1-2" in spots already
hit, hydro concerns could crop up concerning localized
flooding.

There are currently no Flood products issued/in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK
HYDROLOGY...JN