Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WARNED AREA WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGER.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSER TO 15
PERCENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED TO 20 MPH OR LESS.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...BELIEVE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS GENERALLY
OVER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BUT BROADER SCALE TREND IS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO IMPROVE SO
WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO APPARENT
ON THE WSR-88D. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DRY LINE PUSH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH A
BOUNDARY FURTHER EAST WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/JG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHEAR HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...SO CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THREE
HOURLY PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SO WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN HALF. A DUST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR AS CROPS ARE BEGINNING TO SPROUT IN PREVIOUS
DRY FIELDS. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY DUST MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP THE DUST
ADVISORY GOING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS BRING SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP THURSDAY...SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A TROUGH IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING.  THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO AND
WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SOME DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY BUT ONCE
AGAIN MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WIND
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL SPEEDS AS WELL.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH NEAR 50 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO 80.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE ROCKIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.  THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVE INTO THE FA. LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES,
SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RESULTING NIL POPS. WIND WILL BE A FORECAST CONCERN AS THIS
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY WITH MID 50S EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
BEHIND IT. ANTICIPATE THE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE. DUE TO THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE
BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP AT KGLD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FOR KGLD BUT
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE SITE.

MEANWHILE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KMCK WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD TO KMCK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SITE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KMCK BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL






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