Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 011353
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN. AS THE LOW SHIFT TO OUT NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS IS
INITIALLY DRYING UP WITH VERY DRY INITIAL CONDITIONS IN MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL ENTER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SPREADING EAST.

PREV DISC...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
WESTERN MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONLY LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY WITH MOST OF THAT IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGH GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STORM TOTALS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S
SOUTH.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS TO END BY LATE MORNING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REACHED IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST CHANGES TO THE NRN HEMISPHERE 500 MB
PATTERN....WITH SHORTER WAVELENGTHS IN THE FLOW...AND LESS
ESTABLISHED BLOCKING. THIS WILL GENERALLY MAKE FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AND MAY ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO
NUDGE POLEWARD. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORMS.

MON EVE STARTS OFF WITH GUSTY NW FLOW AND SOME MN SHSN...BUT THE
WINDS AND SHSN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE RAD COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH...AND AROUND 10 ABOVE
ALONG THE COAST /WHICH COMPARED TO RECENTLY IS NOT AS COLD...BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL/. TUE WILL START OFF SUNNY...BUT
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH
AN CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SN IN SW NH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN GENERALLY THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TUE NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT WILL SEE MAINLY WAA PRECIP STARTING OFF AS SNOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EVENING. BY THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WILL START TO ABV FREEZING AIR WORKING ALOFT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH AND SW ME....AND COULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE
OVER TO PL/FZRA FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE SNOW...AND SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGE IN THE
S AND W ZONES...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE CWA WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. OVERALL QPF ARE RUNNING 0.25-0.5" ATTM.
GENERALLY THE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AND
PRECIP MOVES OUT WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END AS A A
LITTLE FZRA OR JUST PLAIN RAIN ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AS TEMPS
WILL BE RISING THRU THE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED....WHEN HIGHS COULD
TOP AROUND 40 IN MANY SPOTS.

MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU
LATE WED STALLED WELL TO OUR S...AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
AREA THU. HOWEVER...THE HEMI CMC LIFTS IT BACK FAR ENOUGH N TO
POSSIBLY BRUSH THE COAST WITH A LITTLE PRECIP...AND THE CMC HAS
BEEN PERFORMING WELL THIS WINTER...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...THE KICKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THU AND
IT TURNS COLDER AGAIN FOR FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 FRI/SAT...THIS IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR
SO BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. KLEB/KCON/KMHT/KPWM ALL COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL/FZRA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS TODAY OR TONIGHT. GALES LIKELY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL LINGER INTO MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE USHERING ANOTHER ROUND
COLD AIR...AND FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT IN SW FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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