Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011616
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1216 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
---1215PM UPDATE---
SHOWERS ARE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED. WILL UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARNING
OCCURS.

---905AM UPDATE---
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BETTER CAPTURE THE RAIN MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

600 AM...I ADJUSTED TIMING ON POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS..AND INGESTED THE LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1006 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MAINE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE
EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST AN AVERAGE OF 1000 J/KG
FOR CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW
STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH
HAIL. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING CONVECTION QUICKLY TO AN END AS IT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. OUTSIDE OF A
FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW
EVEN THE COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROADLY SPEAKING WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE THE SURFACE... A BROADER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS
BRIEFLY REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES BY MID NEXT WEEK.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US PREFERRING TO LIVE AT GROUND LEVEL IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND? GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH WILL LARGELY GO
UNNOTICED. A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND PRECIPITATION
THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT BENEATH THE RIDGE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THIS WARM UP WILL BE TEMPERED BY AN
ONSHORE WIND OVER MUCH OF MAINE. 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MID
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN A MIX OF
RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 04Z BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WITH LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
THROUGHOUT AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AT LEBANON AND
WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO
SCA CRITERIA LATE TODAY.

LONG TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL


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