Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 271855
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
255 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move well offshore this evening. A strengthening
northeast flow behind this frontal system will produce more clouds
and patchy drizzle and fog overnight into the day on Wednesday.
High pressure will gradually build into the region from the north
late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The high will remain parked to
our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north
and east. Moisture from this system will gradually spread into the
region Thursday and Friday. The best chance of rain will be this
weekend when a large upper level low pressure system over the
Great Lakes lifts to the north, spreading rain into New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At 18z...a cold front was situated just offshore with a 1011 millibar
low situated along it. Another weak boundary extended from the
rooftop of Maine through the Saint Lawrence valley. Skies have
broken out between these two features with partly sunny skies
across the forecast area. NWS doppler radar mosaic showed scattered
convection with this boundary over southeast Quebec. For tonight...the
weak boundary over Quebec will settle south across the area with
clouds and widely scattered showers. As the flow becomes more
onshore overnight...we`ll see lower clouds and patchy drizzle and
fog develop. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday...we`ll see slow improvement from Northeast to
Southwest as High pressure centered near the Gaspe Peninsula
gradually spreads drier air into the area. It should remain
mostly cloudy over much of southern and western New Hampshire and
extreme southwest Maine while the rest of the area sees partial
clearing. It`ll be cooler then today in a strengthening Northeast
breeze with highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Clouds begin
to spread back north on Wednesday night as the system over the
midwest attempts to move into northern New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday morning begins with a large scale closed upper level low
firmly entrenched over the nations mid-section. Southerly flow
aloft over New England will keep temperatures at least near normal
despite variable cloudiness and intermittent precipitation. The
closed low looks like it will remain over the Ohio river valley
through Friday and at least into Saturday before starting to
migrate to the north and east. The low will begin to weaken a bit
on Sunday and Sunday night before becoming an open wave late
Monday night. The entire extended period will be dominated by this
upper level low. While it may not produce a tremendous amount of
rain... it will create mostly cloudy skies and rain showers
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term/through Wednesday night/...VFR will lower to MVFR
tonight with lcl IFR psb in drizzle and fog. Conditions improve to
MVFR throughout aft 13z Wed, bcmg VFR by 17z over northern NH
eastward into much of ME.


Long Term...A slow moving closed upper level low will generate
some flight restrictions at times over the weekend. Expect cloudy
skies in the long term with scattered rain showers. Will likely
see some MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys associated with the showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday night/...Strengthening Northeast
flow will bring SCA conditions outside the bays tonight and
continuing through Wednesday. It`s likely the SCA will need to be
extended.

Long Term...Will likely need a small craft advisory for most of
the weekend as a slow moving system will generate onshore flow.
Seas are expected to remain above advisory criteria into at least
Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

Schwibs/Pohl



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