Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 171330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME. IN
THE MEANTIME...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS A PERSISTING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY KEEP ENHANCING THE
TRADE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA
MIGRATES E AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A DECREASE IN TRADE
WIND SPEEDS...WHICH WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE...WHICH
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES N OF THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING BACK STRONGER TRADES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND WHERE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
ONSHORE DEVELOPS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM SFC TO ABOUT 15K WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. WILL
BE KEEPING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURB IN EFFECT INDEFINITELY.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS LEEWARD PORTIONS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

A SMALL SWELL FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL PEAK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER TODAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...RYSHKO









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