Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 030924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORN-
ING...ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACK-
ING OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  75  93  76  94 /  40  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  79  88  79  90 /  50  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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