Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 030913
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT
KGLS TO JUST WEST OF KVCT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING ENHANCED BY SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE. ONCE MIXING DEVELOPS THIS MORNING AND THE WIND FIELD
BECOMES A BIT MORE BROAD...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE. THERE IS
ALSO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO NW
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION BUT
COULD SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY THIS EVENING TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED 20 POPS BUT WILL LIKELY TWEAK THE POPS THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST AND MAY RAISE POPS OVER THE NE ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER LATEST TRENDS WITH THE RAP/HI-RES ARW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 87-90 DEGREES WITH THE LOWER VALUES NEAR THE
COAST. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT
WILL BE COMPETING WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST SO AM EXPECTING COVERAGE
TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20 POPS ON SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN
TO DROP AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL POPS ON
SUNDAY BUT PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
VACATES THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE
MONDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS IN THE SUPERBLEND LOOK WAY TOO COOL SO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MEX/ECMWF GUIDANCE AND PROBABLY DID NOT GO WARM ENOUGH. A
WEAK INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS
WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY. FOR
THOSE WHO WERE TIRED OF THE RAIN...YOU`LL GET YOUR WISH OF DRIER
WEATHER BUT YOU`LL ALSO GET VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY
THE DRYING TREND. 43

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL PERSIST
TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF
AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONGER WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LIBERTY AND SW OF LBX. IT APPEARS SPEED CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT
BACKING INLAND IS HELPING WITH THE FORMATION OF THESE BUT AS THE
MORNING GOES ON EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOSS OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO LIMIT IF NOT END SHRA/TSRA FOR TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS 1500-2500FT POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
BUT MAINLY FOR CX0-CLL WESTWARD. BY LATE AFTERNOON STORMS SAGGING
OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR UTS TERMINALS SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS
21-02Z THERE.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  74  91  76  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  90  77  93 /  20  10  40  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  87  81  90 /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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