Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Overall not much change from the previous TAF thinking. Keep VFR
with winds turning NE to SE through the next 24 hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

With high pressure over SE Texas expect calm winds and clear skies
tonight. Only changes to the forecast were to update for current
trends. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s look on track as does the
rest of the forecast. Be sure to enjoy the weekend because Gulf
moisture returns on Monday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Surface analysis has high pressure over the area which should
support VFR for the next 24/30hrs. Winds turn from N to E/SE
tomorrow but remain below 10 knots.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Dry air as indicated on water vapor imagery is continuing to
filter in behind Thursday`s front. High pressure has built in,
which should help to keep the forecast dry throughout the weekend.
Therefore, low temperatures will be cooler in the upper 40s to
mid 50s this evening, with mild high temperatures for Saturday.

Model guidance has our winds turning from a north northeasterly flow
regime into onshore flow, keeping winds out of the south southeast
by Sunday afternoon. Moisture begins to seep back into the mid-level
layers Sunday night as the high pressure system that was in control,
starts to weaken and flatten as it pushes eastward. This will
result in cloud cover Sunday which should act to keep low
temperatures warmer for Sunday night, resulting in less of a
diurnal fluctuation. By Monday, dew points are back up into the
60s, with the help of the slight moisture return provided by the
low level winds. Temperatures will also be on the rise as we move
into next week, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

Various model guidance tracks a vorticity max across our forecast
area Monday morning into afternoon, causing a slight disturbance in
the upper levels of the atmosphere. Though there will most likely
not be enough moisture to fuel widespread showers on Monday
afternoon, cannot rule out a possible chance of an isolated shower,
carrying silent 10 PoPs for Monday afternoon into Monday evening as
a result.

Forecast soundings show the atmospheric column really begin to
saturate Tuesday into Wednesday. Kept a slight chance for
precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, the models are
picking up on a weak backdoor boundary causing a northerly wind
shift, which could cause a slight drop in temperatures if the
boundary becomes better organized. Models are not in agreement
regarding this boundary, resulting in low confidence on the timing
and strength.


Strong and gusty north winds in the wake of the cold front are
slowly diminishing over the Gulf waters this afternoon, and will
continue through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place
for the offshore waters until this evening, leaving caution levels
behind them for several hours and winds continue to diminish. No
major changes are expected in the forecast as high pressure builds
into the region. Onshore winds will gradually return by Saturday
night as the high shifts east of the area. Generally light/moderate
onshore winds are forecast through much of next week. 25


College Station (CLL)      50  79  54  83  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              50  79  54  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            63  77  68  81  72 /   0   0   0   0  10




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