Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 012100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Cooling trend will continue through the weekend and into the start
of next week as a frontal system moves through the area. Winds will
be breezy to locally windy through early next week possibly picking
up loose dirt and dust at times. Light showers and high elevation
snow expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning over the
northern half of the forecast area.


A change in the weather pattern over Central California as the
passage of a cold front introduced much cooler conditions. After
having afternoon temperatures reaching the 90s for many days,
temperatures have fallen to below seasonal norms. In addition to
the cooler temperatures, the cold front also introduced windy
conditions to the district. While no measurable precipitation was
observed with the cold frontal passage, this system will open the
door and allow a couple of weather disturbances to drop into the
area in the next few days.

Satellite imagery currently showing the center of the upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Latest model run show the upper
low dropping toward Northern California in the next 24 hours with
a piece of vort-max energy rotating through the northern part of
the district during the afternoon. Meso-scale models place the
bulk of the instability and limited moisture over Northern
California Sunday afternoon and clipping the Merced-Mariposa-
Yosemite NP. Therefore, will maintain the mention of possible
convection Sunday afternoon for areas north of Kern County. The
limited moisture may only introduce light precipitation (mainly
over the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada). The passage of the
upper low will place a channel flow pattern over Kern County with
possibly strong winds. Models place a 100knot jet max over Kern
county Sunday afternoon which may support the stronger wind

Progressive system will allow the upper low to eject toward the
Rockies by Monday. Yet, a strong westerly to northwesterly flow
aloft will introduce additional moisture into the region with weak
pieces of energy. Therefore, will see additional precipitation
moving into the region on Monday (and mainly for Northern
California). Models show very weak instability on monday for a
lack of possible convection. Enough lift may exist for light
precipitation on Monday, and mainly over Northern California. Will
keep probability of precipitation at slight chances on Monday as
uncertainty rises.

Another piece of vort-max energy will push through Northern
California toward the middle of the week. The bulk of the energy
will remain over the Pacific Northwest (as well as the
precipitation). At that point, will keep the district dry. Models
then show a developing ridge for a return of dry and warming


VFR conditions will prevail over the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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