Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 232129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
229 PM PDT SUN OCT 23 2016
A pacific storm system will slide into the region today with a
chance of showers through Monday evening. Another storm system
will bring a better chance for rain and higher elevation snow in
central California by late next week.
Tonight and Monday...Water Vapor Transport imagery indicates a
decent sub tropical feed moving across the area from the SW. We
have a seen a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of Kern
county today. NAM is picking up features pretty well as the
guidance is bringing isolated showers and high elevation snow
across the central CA interior through Monday evening. The S/W
energy embedded in a strong SW flow ahead of a digging EPAC trough
is also associated with a strong upper jet max that is forecast
to move though the region tomorrow. Decent mid level moisture and
jet divergence will promote showers and possible thunderstorm
activity. Total Totals were in the 50`s and Shoalwater index was 0
to -3 which would indicate some mid-level instability. The bases
of the clouds are above 12k feet attm. So dry lightning is
possible. Rainfall has been light thus far and we are not
expecting any measurable amounts in the SJV...unless the lower
levels begin to moisten up. Some mountain areas in Tulare county
could see isolated amounts of up to a quarter of an inch in
Tuesday and Wednesday...Models are indicating a break between
systems with mostly clear conditions and a brief warm spell.
Strong SW flow in advance of the next system stalls out a front to
our north as several digging S/W`s drop south of 40N along 135W
by Tuesday night. A stronger and deeper S/W will dig south of 30N
and along 135W by Thursday.
Thursday and Friday...Deep cut off low south of 30N will tap into
a deep sub tropical feed. The exact track of the low and
associated cold front is still quite uncertain. The ECM is
significantly faster than the GEFS. We are still putting in
precip chances in for Thursday, but timing is still a problem.
Both guidance precip amounts are very respectable and confidence
is increasing on a good wetting rain event for the Central CA
Interior. However, the track of the low center will decide on how
much precip we get. With the system being a warm system, we can
expect snow levels to remain above 8k feet in the Sierra.
Saturday and Sunday...The system will be lifting NE and gradual
clearing is expected with seasonal temperatures as SW flow remains
over the region. Weak S/W ridging will clear out the region before
another digging EPAC upper low center approaches the Central CA
by Sunday with increasing precip chances late Sunday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading northward
across the Kern County desert will produce areas of MVFR ceilings.
MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR and terrain obscurations will spread
over the mountains of Kern and Tulare Counties after 00Z Monday.
Southwesterly wind gusts 30-40 knots can be expected across the
higher terrain. VFR conditions can otherwise be expected over the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.