Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.