Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 302005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
105 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WHICH IS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ARE SITUATED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F
ABOVE YDAY AT THIS TIME.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...IT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. IT/S MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE
TO SLOW DOWN THE ONGOING WARMING TREND FOR ONE DAY.

HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DURATIONS OF
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS/BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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