Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
331 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Quiet and much cooler weather conditions expected across central
and southeast Illinois through the period. A cold front cleared the
area Sunday evening, and an area of high pressure of Canadian origin
is taking its place. The much drier & cooler airmass associated with
the high will see much closer to normal highs in the 60s today and
lows around 40 degrees tonight. Winds will also be much lighter as


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Dry conditions should continue on Tuesday across central and
southeast IL as mid/high clouds increase over areas north of I-70 as
skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny skies will
prevail over southeast IL along and south of I-70. Highs mostly in
the lower 60s Tuesday with coolest readings around 60F from I-74

A mid level short wave will eject eastward from the central Rockies
into central/northern IL by sunset Wed. Models have trended further
south with this low pressure track that was over southern WI with
earlier model runs. Surface low pressure near 1010 mb will track
eastward over northern IL Wed afternoon and into northern IN Wed
evening. Have chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
spreading over the IL river valley by overnight Tue night with
showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms over much of central IL
by Wed afternoon, with lower pops southeast of I-70.

Good chance of showers over eastern IL Wed evening as cold front
moves east through that area while 20-30% pops in western CWA. Just
have 20-30% pops of showers from I-57 east overnight Wed night as
best chances of convection shift east into IN. Rainfall amounts from
this weather system appear to average a quarter to half inch from I-
55 nw to one to two tenths of an inch over southeast IL. Highs Wed
range from near 60F from I-74 north to the upper 60s south of I-70.

Dry conditions expected Thu with partly to mostly sunny skies as
1023 mb high pressure settles into IL late Thu. Cooler highs Thu in
the lower 60s, with upper 50s from I-74 north. Dry conditions prevail
Thu night into Friday morning with lows Thu night of 43-48F.

A northern stream short wave expected to track into the Great Lakes
region late Fri into Saturday morning and to bring next chances of
showers from Friday afternoon and Friday night, then dry again on
Saturday. Temps warm ahead of this system on Friday with highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Models diverge with handling features
during this weekend as ECWMF has another chance of showers on Sunday
while GFS is dry. Temps to cool down a bit for the weekend but still
be near or a bit above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The cold front has progressed past all of the terminal sites as of
0430z, and wind directions have made a more prominent shift to the
NW. Wind speeds have remained around 10kt at BMI and DEC, with
lighter winds at the other TAF sites. Winds will continue to veer
the rest of the night, and become NE by sunrise. Wind speeds will
prevail at 10-12kt during daytime mixing. Little to no cloud
cover is expected over the next 24 hours, in the dry high pressure
system advancing into Illinois.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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