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000
FXUS63 KILX 121958
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

First issue in the immediate short-term will be whether or not
skies will clear tonight. 19z/2pm satellite imagery shows Illinois
blanketed in clouds: however, much of the cloud cover has a
diurnal appearance. Think some of this will erode by sunset, but
will be replaced by mid-clouds further upstream over Minnesota/Iowa.
Model RH profiles suggest mostly cloudy skies at least through the
evening, with partial clearing overnight. Given presence of
shearing vort max on water vapor imagery over Minnesota, think
enough lift/moisture will be present to support clouds and perhaps
a few lingering flurries this evening, with partly cloudy skies
expected after midnight.

As high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly winds will
begin to bring warmer air back into Illinois on Thursday. 850mb
temps are progged to climb to around 2c by the end of the day,
supporting afternoon highs well into the 40s. A tightening
gradient between the departing high and an approaching front will
create gusty southwesterly winds Thursday night into Friday.
Thanks to the steady southerly flow and ample sunshine, highs on
Friday will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Thursday, with
readings ranging from the middle 50s northwest of the Illinois
River to the lower 60s south of I-70. Weak cold front will drop
through the region late Friday, accompanied by little more than a
few clouds and a shift in the wind, followed by slightly cooler
weather for Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Temperature roller-coaster ride continues in the extended, as a
more significant chunk of cold air arrives for late in the
weekend. Resulting high temps on Sunday will mainly be in the
30s, with 40s across the SE KILX CWA. May see a few light rain
and/or snow-showers around on Sunday: however, strongest lift will
remain to the north and south of central Illinois in split-flow
regime. Have therefore only maintained slight chance POPs for
Sunday. After that, temperatures will once again begin climbing,
with readings back into the 50s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

Scattered light snow showers will drift se across central IL into
mid afternoon as a short wave moves from central/northern IL into
the ohio river valley by sunset. Visibilities could get to MVFR
3-5 miles and even IFR of 1-2 miles especially at BMI. MVFR
ceilings possible with these light snow showers of 1-3k ft while
ceilings elevate to 3-6k ft outside of snow showers. Another batch
of low clouds of 2.5-5k ft over IA to slide se into central IL
tonight so kept VFR ceilings around until mid morning Thu. Strong
987 mb low pressure deepening near Pittsburg in southwest PA to
deepen to 982 mb over NJ by sunset and up the New England coast
tonight as it deepens to 975 mb by sunrise Thu. Very tight
pressure gradient over especially eastern IL today to give nnw
wind gusts of 24-33 kts early this afternoon and then diminish
quickly late this afternoon and early evening to around 10 kts
and then become light and variable later this evening and overnight
as 1023 mb high pressure over MN settles into IL. South winds 9-13
kts expected after 15Z/Thu.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$