Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 251409
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1009 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving westward between
10 and 15 knots in the waters surrounding the Florida Keys this
morning, and across portions of the Keys island chain. More
recently, the stronger cells have been in the Straits while lingering
lighter showers have been close to the island chain. Winds have been
steadily increasing across the service area, with speeds currently
averaging slightly above 15 knots at the available CMAN sensors.
Temperatures are climbing through the middle 80s.

The early morning local sounding sampled an airmass on the back side
of decaying showers and thunderstorms. Some of the winds aloft may
have suffered on that account...namely a deeper than warranted
easterly breeze. Regardless, we are moist and unstable and expect the
the lower winds to back slightly. This orientation should be
favorable for a cloud line through the afternoon, and with colliding
small scale boundaries nearby, a 30 percent probability of measurable
precipitation still looks good for the island chain. A zone update is
planned shortly just to remove some transitional wind wording from
the early morning issuance. All other sensible weather elements are
advertised well.

&&

.MARINE...
As with the zones, the only change expected on the upcoming marine
update will be to set winds more to the northeast/east initially.
Most of the marine zone groupings will have exercise caution
headlines due to wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. If you have boating
plans for tonight, especially in the Straits, plan for the
probability of a small craft advisory as winds peak overnight, and
seas may build enough to surpass the criteria. More moderate breezes
and seas conditions are expected later in the work week and through
the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals this afternoon.
However...scattered thunderstorms will reach the vicinity of both
terminals. Average storm motion will be from the east at 10 to 15
KTS. The best chances for impacts to flight operations will be late
this morning then again early this evening. Prepare for convective
wind gusts near 25 knots and IFR CIG/VIS. Precipitation chances will
decrease overnight as gusty easterly winds resume across the island
chain.

&&

.CLIMATE...May 25th, on this date in Key West climate history, in
1995, the daily record warm low temperature of 82F was recorded.
This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in
the month of May. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......Chesser

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