Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
810 FXUS62 KKEY 160256 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 After this morning`s bout of precipitation, the rest of the day was suspiciously quiet. We even saw a fair amount of sun return by midday and last into this evening. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure is churning across northern Florida as it slowly moves westward into the Gulf. This is gradually allowing our winds to clock around to the southeast. This is keeping the atmosphere quite saturated with a PWat of over 2 inches. The only saving graces so to say, is that we have weak flow, skinny CAPE, and no organized lift, yet. Watching radar, we have been tracking an outflow boundary that is lifting north across the outer Straits of Florida. To the west we can still see a broad MCV over and just west of the Dry Tortugas. Lastly, high pressure is attempting to nose in from the east, with a weak surge behind the leading edge. The MCV has been creating some off and on showers and isolated thunderstorms and it remains to be seen what additional activity may fire tonight. The real players will be the outflow boundary and in the incoming wind surge as the high builds from east to west. Already some convection can be seen along this leading edge of the returning high pressure. This in combination with an already saturated environment with decent but not great instability should allow for showers and thunderstorms to re-develop. Hi-res CAMs have been windshield appearing on coverage and timing. For now, the best chances will occur after midnight and into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Therefore, will leave likely PoPs for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 As a weak low pressure shifts off to the west and into the Gulf, high pressure will build in behind it strengthening the pressure gradient. This will lead to gentle to moderate breezes tonight. High pressure remains anchored over the central Atlantic with its western periphery extending into the Keys through the weekend with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing, occasionally becoming moderate to fresh. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for at least the next several hours. Watching a boundary to the south of the island chain that may spark new showers and thunderstorms overnight as it pushes north. Confidence on exact coverage and timing remains lower than usual and will keep mentions out for future updates. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest