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000
FXUS62 KKEY 110321
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE LAST VESTIGES OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA IS RETREATING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...LEAVING
THE KEYS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A
~1030 HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
WHILE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TODAY AS THE INITIAL RIDGE DEPARTED...THE
GRADIENT IS NOW GRADUALLY TIGHTENING AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH SPREAD
ACROSS FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS ALSO
WEAKENING...WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE MOVING EAST WITH THE
INITIAL SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE RIDGE ALOFT IS GETTING SQUASHED
SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST JET STREAM
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS PAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF
1.53 INCHES...WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK ISOTHERMAL LAYERS ABOVE A MOIST
AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS UP IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE HIGH CELL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO NEAR THE DEW POINT IN ALL BUT THE MOST PROTECTED
LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT. WHILE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ORGANIZED VEERING PROFILE...ALONG WITH NO
SUBSTANTIVE CAP...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MAY ONLY ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN AN EVENING UPDATE...AND HAVE NO REASON TO MOVE POPS
FROM MID CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
OCCURRING OVER THE OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THAT
SAID...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 12/03Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE FROM
ABOUT 090/12KT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF MVFR EPISODE TO
EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR AN MVFR CEILING AND/OR
VISIBILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER

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