Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 300944 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON THE LONGER...TIME-LAPSED LOOPS FROM THE KBYX RADAR.
THE CIMSS LOW -LEVEL (850-700MB) VORTICITY ANALYSES CORROBORATE THIS
ASSERTION. REGIONAL INFRA-RED IMAGES DESCRIBE A LESS CONCENTRIC
SYSTEM. ONE PIECE OF ERIKA SLID WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...WHILE THE SECOND PIECE INVIGORATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
KEY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. IN FACT...THE TURKEY POINT WEATHER FLOW
MESONET REGISTERED A 56 KNOT GUST SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM. CURRENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS
ARE NORTHEAST AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES
REEF...AVERAGING NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR
MOST WESTERN OBSERVATION AT PULASKI SHOAL STOPPED REPORTING AT
05Z...REGISTERING A NORTH WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT RADAR
SCANS HIGHLIGHT A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE REMNANT`S WESTERN QUADRANT...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE CYCLONIC AND MOIST
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DRAWS NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
NIGHT...USHERING-IN EASTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERLIES (SEE MIMIC TPW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA) SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS...WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY NORMAL PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL FEATURING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES...RAIN
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
90S.

&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND BREEZES WILL RELAX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  81 / 80 70 50 40
MARATHON  89  79  89  81 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.