Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220714
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
314 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ADJACENT AND OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 85
DEGREES. WINDS ARE GENTLE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE...THE KEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MUCH OF TODAY. STILL MAINTAINING THE GRIDDED NUMBERS ABOVE
ALL THE AVAILABLE MOS NUMBERS ON THAT ACCOUNT. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A SLOW DECREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ONE AND A HALF INCHES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONTINUED THEN. THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE DRIER AIR MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE WE HAVE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL ACQUIRE SOME DIRECTIONAL
VARIABILITY LATER TODAY. A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. OUTSIDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...RECREATIONAL BOATING SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
HOWEVER...AND THEREFORE EXPLICIT MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  80  91  83 / 50 40 40 30
MARATHON  91  79  92  82 / 50 40 40 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......11

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