Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
449 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY EAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND A
LITTLE STRONG ALONG THE LOWER KEYS REEF. A DENSER PATCH OF FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIN CIRRUS FROM NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 77F WITH
DEWPOINTS AT OR BELOW 70F. NO SHOWERS WERE DETECTED THUS FAR THIS
MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE EAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND POSSIBLY BECOMING
LOCALLY BREEZY. MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT WITH DEEP LAPSE RATES
POOR...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE OPEN FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OWING TO VARIOUS SMALL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WARM WATERS.

AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP WEAKEN
AND SHIFT THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD...WITH THE KEYS LIKELY NEAR A
COL POINT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM
EARLY MONDAY ONWARD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING ABOUT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE
ISLANDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL INDICATED IN GUIDANCE...ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TIME OF PASSAGE...THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BRIEFLY
INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...ALONG WITH A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME MADE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS TO 20
PERCENT FOR THURSDAY ANDTHURSDAY NIGHT BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER. WHILE NO STRONG NORTHWEST POST-BOUNDARY SURGE IS
EXPECTED...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F BY
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORT-
DURATION DECREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
REPEAT WIND SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE PRONOUNCED LULLS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND POSSIBLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNEDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS SATURDAY. FEW CLOUDS WILL
REGISTER AOA 025...WITH SCT CLOUDS AT 250. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY EVENING...BECOMING GUSTY...ALL THE WHILE REMAINING OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY...FRIDAY APRIL THE
29TH...WAS 85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR WARMER HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN 2016...AND THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE NOVEMBER THE 20TH
2015...SOME 161 DAYS AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  78  85  78 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  83  78  87  77 / -  -  -  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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