Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210718
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS MERGER TAKES
PLACE...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE GRADUALLY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RECENT CONVECTION WHICH IMPACTED BOTH TERMINALS...RAIN FREE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...
DESPITE WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY
AT BOTH TERMINALS...COMPRISED OF IFR VIS...MVFR CIGS...AND
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83 75 84 76 / 50 60 70 70
MARATHON  83 74 84 75 / 50 60 70 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS....CLR

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