Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021105
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE LOWER KEYS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE UPPER KEYS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING A FEW SMALL AND LIGHT SHOWERS MIGRATING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES
WELL EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACROSS OUR MARINE
COMMUNITY...MOSTLY EAST WINDS RANGE FROM 10 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL
LIGHT TO 16 KNOTS AT LONG KEY LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A LARGE AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...SLOWLY SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT WITH A SHARP
RIDGE REACHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR REGION LYING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ONLY OCCASIONAL...SMALL
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HENCE...0 TO 10 PERCENT POPS
WILL SUFFICE...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM
NEARBY FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK...BUT GFS REVEALS A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MAY BRIEFLY BREACH THE RIDGE WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH. REGARDLESS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN THE RETREAT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND RECENT MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...WILL REPLACE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE STRAITS AND NEAR 15 KNOTS OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER OUR MARINE DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON AIRPORTS. FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 015-020 WOULD BE OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING.

.CLIMATE...IN 1991...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 74 81 75 / 05 05 05 05
MARATHON  83 74 83 75 / 05 05 05 05

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE............KN

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