Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 041923
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
223 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
The CONUS view reveals an area of high pressure over the southeastern
coastal states while a trough moves eastward across the Mississippi
Valley. Further west we find a more robust trough moving onto the
Northwest Pacific coast. Closer to home, a look at visibile satellite
we can see steering flow showing signs of veering to the southeast
over the last few hours. East winds at the surface are 10 to 15 knots
at the island terminals. A recent ASCAT satellite pass shows 15 to 20
knots along the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Hawk Channel, and
near 20 knots to the south on the Florida Straits, while the Bay and
Gulf side waters north of the island chain are near 15 knots.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The high pressure to our north will move east, then southeast ahead
of the front moving through the Mississippi Valley. This front will
stall over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and weaken on Tuesday. The
result of the weakening front will be to decrease winds over South
Florida and the Keys late Tuesday through Thursday. Moisture will
increase through the column Monday and Tuesday, but the limited
listing will not provide more than a chance of showers arriving
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ...
While the front stall to our north on Tuesday, the trough moving onto
the Pacific Northwest will advance on the Central Plains Tuesday
night with an intense Artic airmass in its wake. A short wave will
drop off the Colorado Front Range early Thursday. The associated
front will dive toward the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The short wave
will lift out to the northeast removing much of the energy needed for
anything better than a chance of showers. The cold air and high
pressure behind the front will bridge over the surface front and will
be reflected mainly by increasing winds, but we will see a slight dip
in temperatures and possibly a bit more in dew points. Winds will
increase quickly Friday, and rain chances will drop to a slight
chance.

&&

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory is in effect for the Florida Straits south
Hawk Channel this morning due to the high pressure over the
southeast United States. Small craft should exercise caution on the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico beyond 20 west of Mainland Monroe County
and surrounding the Dry Tortugas. A cold front will approach the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday then stall over northern
Central Florida Tuesday evening. The pressure gradient weakens due
to the stalled front on Tuesday through Thursday. Another cold front
is forecast to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night
with an area of high pressure building in on Friday. Expect a small
craft advisory likely on all Keys Coastal Waters Friday night
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered shallow stratocu will continue through the evening and
overnight at both the KEYW and KMTH terminals. Put a tempo for brief
sub-vfr cigs at both locations based on the loop of the latest
visible satellite imagery for the next several hours. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at both locations with east/southeast surface
winds sustained between 10 and 15 knots with frequent gusts near 20
knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1880, the high temperature in Key West hit 86 degrees. This is a
long-standing high temperature record for December fourth, since
temperature records for the city date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75  82  75  82 / 10 20 20 30
Marathon  76  84  76  84 / 10 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BWC
Aviation/Nowcasts....04
Data Collection......DR

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