Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 271533
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...HAPPY THANKSGIVING...

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE IS BEING FELT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG WITH
A FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH. MEANWHILE...THE KAMX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CUBA...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS EXTREMELY
SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT .26 INCHES) WITHIN A BACKING NORTH...TO WEST
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY REACHING WELL UP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED 5 TO 9 DEGREES C BELOW 900 MB OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WITH A STRENGTHENING...DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN OLD MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD...AND A SHARP RIDGE REACHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR AREA...VERY DRY AIR
WILL PERSIST. DESPITE GOLDEN SUNSHINE...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH
WILL BE ABOUT 7 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE A BRIEF SLACKENING OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER MINOR WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&


.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SKIES WILL EITHER BE
CLEAR OR HAVE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS IS A
CROSSWIND OF 20 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED OUTAGE...THE KBYX RADAR WILL BE
DOWN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GREAT NEWS IS
THAT WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL.......APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS........................EV
DATA ACQUISITION.........................SC

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