Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 292320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY
06Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
LEFT FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FG/BR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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