Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280421

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1121 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

There is a migrating anomalous upper ridge from the desert southwest
through the northern plains today. Deepening trough over the eastern
Pacific just off the California coast. Hurricane Seymour to the west
of Baja. Short wave moving through the Great Lakes. Gulf of Alaska
low and Hudson Bay low.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

An abnormally strong ridge of high pressure will build east
across the plains overnight and spread h85 temps of 20C or greater
across the Sandhills. A weak surface trough to the west /over the
high plains/ will deepen and slowly spread east as low pressure
moves across the northern Dakotas. The pressure gradient will
increase slightly, which will provide for southwest winds of 10
mph overnight. The atmosphere will largely remain mixed through
much of the night, leading to warm overnight lows. The latest
guidance suggests lower 50s for lows along the SDak border and
across our Eastern zones, with 40s over the Sandhills and
southwest Neb. Lower 40s are forecast within the Platte Basin as
the atmosphere should decouple before dawn. Increasing subsidence
associated with upper ridge of high pressure will provide for dry
conditions overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Upper ridge will propagate east through the forecast period bringing
above normal temperatures to western Nebraska again on Friday. The
Gulf of Alaska low will move into the Pacific northwest with a
strong wave moving underneath it across northern California...along
with moisture from Seymour...and into the Great Basin Friday...then
into the northern plains on Saturday with slight chances rain north.
This wave combined with deepening Hudson Bay low will dampen the
ridge and bring temperatures from near records Friday back into the
50s and 60s on Saturday and the 60s and 70s on Sunday. Closed low
moves down the California coast through the weekend. The upper ridge
sharpens again between the California low and the Hudson Bay low
with temperatures rising into the 70s over western Nebraska on
Monday. A series of strong waves move along the same trajectory
through the middle of next week with temperatures in the 60s and
chances of precipitation mainly north.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions currently prevail across all of the local forecast
area. Latest satellite imagery shows expansive high cirrus across
western and north central NEB with more tracking eastward from
upstream. Surface plot at the top of the hour shows light
southerly winds being reported in southwest NEB, elsewhere south
to southwest winds between 8-12 kts are being observed.

High clouds will continue to stream eastward rest of tonight. No
significant impacts from clouds/sky cover are expected through
tomorrow. Thereafter, low-end VFR ceilings (greater than 7 kft)
are possible and are anticipated to move into the western NEB
Sandhills and as far east as KVTN Friday evening. Concerns for
LLWS conditions tonight remain limited to north central NEB (and
east of KLBF and KVTN) wherein marginal LLWS conditions will be
possible through the early morning hours. In this area southwest
winds nears 45 kts at the top of the layer (estimated upper height
about 1000 ft) can be expected. Surface winds will stay elevated
the rest of tonight, between 6-12 kts, except for over southwest
NEB. Tomorrow, light winds will prevail in the afternoon and


Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure over the northern Dakotas will force a weak front
across the Sandhills Friday morning.  The front will washout midday
which will allow westerly winds to veer back to south by late
afternoon.  The front will not impact temperatures, thus abnormally
warm conditions are forecast once again Friday afternoon.  Highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s are forecast across the region.  The warm
temperatures will allow relative humidity to fall into the lower 20
percent range across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.  Upper
teens are possible over southwest Nebraska and along and south of
I80.  Note recovery tonight will be moderate /near 60%/ at best
across northern Nebraska as southwest winds will keep the atmosphere
fairly well mixed.  A stronger front will arrive early Saturday
morning and allow for cooler daytime highs.  Early Monday the upper
ridge will be in it/s final breakdown stage with a strong cold front
to follow.  Depending on the timing of the breakdown and front,
weather conditions may favor large fire growth late Sunday
afternoon and possibly again Monday.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Elevated flows to continue along the North Platte River downstream
of Lake McConaughy. Releases downstream are giving flows near 1800
cfs. The current stage at North Platte was 6.0 feet. These
controlled releases will cause the river stage to remain near 6.0
feet for the foreseeable future. Therefore, a Flood Advisory will
remain in effect for the North Platte River near North Platte from
Highway 83 to approximately 4 miles west of Highway 83 south of
North River Road until further notice.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

An anomalous high pressure ridge over western Nebraska again on
Friday will bring record warmth to western Nebraska with near
record highs for the area.

Record high for North Platte 86f
Record high for Valentine 85f




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