Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281740 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1240 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Satellite shows a fairly robust disturbance dropping southeast
through MT this morning. The models bring the disturbance through
Wrn Neb this afternoon and evening. The forecast leans on the HRRR
and NAM models which are the most aggressive with showers and
thunderstorms. K indices will be in the lower 30s and this should
support thunderstorms.

The temperature forecast is a blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus
bias correction for highs in the 70s. H700mb temperatures warm into
the low single digits celsius. Lows tonight fall in the 40s using
the guidance blend plus bias correction. High pressure across
Alberta and Saskatchewan will ridge south in the wake of the
disturbance this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Monday through Wednesday...An upper level low will continue to move
slowly southeast out of Canada and move across the Great Lakes
region. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures across the area
as a cold front passes through on Monday. Highs will only be in the
upper 60s across our northern CWA and in our lower 70s across
southwest Nebraska. The upper level low will then translate
northeastward and move across the Hudson Bay region.

Wednesday and beyond...northwest flow will prevail starting
Wednesday as a ridge begins to build in from the west. Precipitation
chances increasing on Thursday and Saturday in association with a
couple upper level systems. Temperatures will warm into the upper
70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday under the broad ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Convective clouds developing over western Nebraska this afternoon
AOA 7k ft. Could see some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
especially over northwest Nebraska from KIEN to KTIF. Some
isolated thunderstorms will move south across western Nebrasaka
later this evening and have carried vcsh at both KVTN and KLBF
this evening. Winds becoming light northwest and mostly clear
skies through the early morning with northwest winds increasing
through the morning on Monday.




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