Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 050841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

LARGE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW SENDING A BROAD TROUGH INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND A WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 MILES BUT EXPECT THEY MAY DROP TO
1 TO 3 MILES. HAVE INCLUDED THROUGH 14Z THIS AM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING WITH NEAREST ECHOES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY WITH TD`S IN THE MID 60S. NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERING
WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. SUN WILL BE OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND
WITH THAT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S. LATE
SHOW TONIGHT WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING. 30 TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE IN THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO START CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

AFTER SCATTERED TSTMS DRIVEN BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...HAVE IT LOCATED FROM NEAR
EWING TO BROKEN BOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. WIND SHEAR DECENT AS
WELL...WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLIES INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL
COOLING AND MODERATELY STRONG FORCING WILL BE TAKING PLACE. ALL
THESE FACTORS INDICATE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY
AROUND 4PM. SUPERCELLS LIKELY AT FIRST WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
LINEAR AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT WILL BE KEY...IF A FASTER GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES ALL THE
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT
THOUGH...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS SLOWER...CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN DURING STORM
INITIATION. IF THE FRONT WOULD HAPPEN TO SLOW FURTHER...THEN MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...AND LIKELY
POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD EVENING...WITH AN MCS
LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST DUE TO AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS...AS SEVERAL AREAS HAVE HAD
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES.

SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
PERIODIC UPPER WAVES ROTATING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY  OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS DAILY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE SREF...NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LASTING UNTIL 15Z-17Z
WEDNESDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED 18Z-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY COULD COMMENCE IN THE PANHANDLE
AROUND 21Z...GENERALLY ISOLATED THOUGH. A BETTER OPPORTUNITITY MAY
DEVELOP 03Z-06Z WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN NEB. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC


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