Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 022220
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
320 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
NORTHEAST NEVADA...PRIMARILY ELKO COUNTY...ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NEVADA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CONVECTION ABSENT FROM THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED, WITH
CAPE MINIMAL AND ONLY AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 5 AM WILL ROTATE
INTO NE NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
FAVORING ELKO COUNTY. 12/18Z NAM FOLLOW THIS THINKING, WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER ELKO COUNTY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FAR SOUTH AS EUREKA. KEPT POP
GRIDS IN THE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD CATEGORY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ELKO COUNTY. CAPE/INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NE OF THE RUBY MTNS, AS DEPICTED BY THE
MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES FROM SPC. MOISTURE QUALITY IS
MARGINAL, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50 INCH OR A LITTLE LESS, SO WITH
INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS, AND LCLS NEAR 550 MB,
EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF TO A 565 DM CIRCULATION NEAR
SAN FRANCISCO AT 5 AM, AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY, WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IMPROVES, WITH GFS FORECASTING PW OF 0.60-0.70 INCH
ACROSS N/NW NEVADA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON NW OF AN AUSTIN-RUBY MTNS-JACKPOT
LINE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION, HELPED ALONG BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION,
WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS REVEAL A WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NE/SW ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT CAN
INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH...ENHANCEMENT FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR JUNE. ALL
EYES ARE ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH A SLIVER OF THE PLUME MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NCEP RMOP IS PRETTY CONFIDENT
WITH BOTH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PAC NW AND THE MASS FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LKN CWA...WHICH MAY
BRING ANOTHER HEALTHY AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE SILVER STATE...IF IT PANS
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY MOVE NEAR
OR DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99/97/97



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