Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 292201
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRETTY MUCH AS
SCHEDULED DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED AND FAIRLY ACTIVE
OVER THE AREA. SOME GOOD RAIN HAS FALLEN OUT OF THE SKY WITH
AUTOMATED LOCATIONS SHOWING ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THUS FAR. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...EXCEPT HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP TO
5000 TO 5500 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY WHERE THEY WILL BE MUCH STRONGER. AS
SUCH...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL START EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN VALID THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET TOMORROW...AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL MEAN MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...BUT WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DO HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THEY BOTH HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK NONDESCRIPT FLOW OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT IS THE REMNANT OF A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE. BUT THE ECMWF NOW HAS A LOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT IS KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO WE
KEPT THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST TIME FRAME IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS
SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOWING MORE SIGNS OF
SPLITTING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE LOW PROGRESS BEFORE DRIFTING INLAND. MOST GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO INDUCE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A DEFORMATION AXIS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS INCREASE. IF THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL
PART OF NEVADA...BUT IF IT TRACKS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REACH FARTHER NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW LEVELS RISE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS WELL. VALLEY HIGHS REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FUEL INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF A MCDERMITT TO AUSTIN
LINE. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT AND
VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST...BUT MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN CITY TO AUSTIN.

SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF A JACKPOT TO AUSTIN LINE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL WITH
KTPH GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE FLYING WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG
AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN
CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES
THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE
SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS MAY LEAD TO
SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE
MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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