Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 061120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
320 AM PST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A cold weather system moves into northern Nevada
today bringing scattered snow showers with some accumulations in
the higher terrain. Colder temperatures are expected tonight and
Wednesday. Pacific moisture spreads across the region on Thursday
bringing more snow, although pockets of freezing rain may be
possible in some valleys. The moist weather pattern continues
through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.
Strong 140 kt jet drives next upstream short wave into the nrn
half of Nevada today. The leading edge of low level moisture
is currently along the Oregon/Nevada border and will spread south
and east today. Cold advective snow showers will develop over NW
Nevada this morning and reach US50 and northeast Nevada this
afternoon. While snow showers will be fairly widespread, snowfall
will be light with 1-3 inches expected in the higher terrain and
most valley locations receiving less than 1 inch. Little if any
snowfall is expected south of US50, although gusty winds with
gusts 30-35 mph developing across the southern half of the
forecast area (ie, Tonopah and Ely). Orographic snow showers
(west to north aspects) linger tonight before ending after
midnight. In the wake of this short wave is a colder air mass with
single digits expected across much of the region with pockets of
subzero readings. In spite of mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday, afternoon highs will only manage the upper teens to mid
20s, although 30s can be expected at Tonopah.

Pacific moisture quickly spreads east across the nrn half of the
state Wednesday night as increasing moisture transport overruns
the colder air mass near the surface. Initially, any pcpn will
start as snow, but transition to rain as the deeper moisture
punches into the Great Basin. This scenario also leads to the
possibility of light freezing rain in the transition from snow to
rain. Vertical soundings from the NAM keep profiles below freezing
through Thursday, while GFS is slightly warmer profile aloft that
could lead to freezing rain. Definitely some forecast challenges
for Thursday with respect to precipitation type in the lower

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Monday.
The long term period will be active. Although there are some
model differences in the areal coverage of precipitation, northern
Nevada seems to receive the brunt of activity. A series of
shortwaves will move through in a fast northwest flow. While the
Sierras will block some of the moisture from penetrating east-
central Nevada, northern Nevada will be under a perpetual moist
flow and with the slight model differences in timing due to the
speed of the wave, it will be difficult to pick out any specific
dry period with confidence. Northern Humboldt County and
especially northern Elko County could see 1-2 inches of snow
daily. High temperatures will generally be in the 30s. Low
temperatures will generally be in the teens and 20s.


.AVIATION...Light snow showers will be developing across northern
Nevada today and some flurries may occur in the vicinity of KWMC
and KEKO in the morning hours. Snow showers may reach KWMC and
KEKO by early Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected at
KWMC KELY and KTPH through Wednesday morning. However,
intermittent MVFR cigs may impact KEKO Tuesday afternoon and




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