Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 030915
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MANY VALLEYS
NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING WILL APPROACH NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A
PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND, AND CONTINUED STRONG GUSTY WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON.

TODAY...SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 40-45 MPH ACROSS WHITE PINE, NE NYE AND SE EUREKA COUNTIES.
SURFACE LOW OF 995 MB NEAR WEST WENDOVER AT 5 PM WILL FUEL THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SE ZONES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ISOLATED WEAK/DRY CONVECTION/VIRGA POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE ELKO
AND NW HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WHERE NAM FORECASTS LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO
-2. MOISTURE SUPPLY IS VERY ANEMIC, BARELY 0.50 INCH, SO LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH MAX
TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FALLING 5-7 DEGREES COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY`S READINGS.

FRIDAY...WINDY AND COOLER. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL MPH
STRONGER ACROSS NEVADA, AS ANOTHER 995 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY, AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS STEEPEN SHARPLY
AHEAD OF INCOMING TROUGH. EVEN 00Z ECMWF PROGS A 998 MB WENDOVER
LOW, IMPRESSIVE FOR THAT GLOBAL MODEL RESOLUTION. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHERE MAV GUIDANCE IS CRANKING OUT 31 MPH SUSTAINED AT
ELY, AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. THE COOLING
TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGH TEMPS FALLING ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES INTO
THE UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO
MARGINAL, INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER NORTH OF I-80 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE AGREED
FAIRLY WELL IN THE LONG TERM...SOME DEVIATIONS BACK AND FORTH EACH
RUN...BUT OVERALL GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER...AND
SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOME RANGES OF
ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES.

EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
CREATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...BUT INTO THE TEENS IS LIKELY IN HIGH VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH. THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND WINDS...BUT THERE ARE BOUND TO
BE A FEW SUCKER HOLES AND CALM PERIODS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMP SPIKES.
THIS WILL BE MURDER ON ANY OUTSIDE PLANTS STILL AROUND IN LATE
SUMMER...

SNOW LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 8500 FEET SUNDAY AND UP TO A COUPLE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WELL AWAY FROM ROADS. ANYONE RECREATING WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS...HOWEVER. CAMPERS NEED TO BE AWARE.

WARMING TREND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS THE TROUGH AXIS
WANDERS EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE. DRYING ATMOSPHERE BRINGS RETURN TO
MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. NOT HOT...BUT CERTAINLY BETTER THAN THE
50S TO 70S OF THE FIRST PART.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AROUND
KWMC...KEKO...AND KELY. LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED BLDU
POSSIBLE...AS ARE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. WEAKENING WINDS AFTER DARK
AND DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDER.  BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW MPH
WEAKER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SUCH THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW, WITH
MIN RH OF 10-15%.

STRONGER SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR FWZ 457 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WHERE THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH OF 8-10%.
FUELS ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY/FWZ 455 REMAIN NON-CRITICAL, AS
SUCH NO RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FRIDAY...STRONG SW WINDS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH MIN RH
CLIMBING TO NEAR THE 15% CRITICAL THRESHOLD. BRIEF/LOCAL RED FLAG
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CRITICAL WIND/RH WILL RETURN TO FWZ 457 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND MIN RH OF
10-15%.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

99/98/98/99



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