Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 261037
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE CHRISTMAS STORM OUT OF THE WAY...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA AS
A VERY COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD TROUGH AXIS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NOTED ON
RADAR IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LKN CWFA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AS A VERY COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN EXTENDED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
95-100 KT UPPER JET FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN VERY COLD
AIR...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
MANY AREAS AT NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ONLY IN THE 20S
WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE DRY PERIOD. THE
TROUGH WILL HAVE RACED OUT EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE
COUNTRY. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING VISITS FOR A DAY.

SATURDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL SAG DOWN
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FOR
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NEVADA. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE IDAHO-OREGON BORDER AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GETTING UP TO 6 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF STRENGTH...
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE CONSIDERABLY OUT OF PHASE WHICH NOW RESULTS
IN LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG RANGE TIME-FRAME.

THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS /SUNDAY NIGHT/ WITH A POWERFUL H3 JET
OF 120+ KTS DIVING SOUTH AND ENTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FEATURE AIDS IN DISLODGING A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM
THE MAIN ARCTIC VORTEX IN CENTRAL CANADA AND PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THE JET CONTINUING TO DIG...THE UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE CUTOFF OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE
GFS EJECTS THE CUTOFF EAST TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNER STATES WHILE THE
ECMWF MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE END RESULT FOR THE GFS WOULD BE TO PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE GREAT
BASIN KEEPING MOST OF NEXT WEEK DRY AND COLD WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)EXTENDED DISCUSSION HAS MENTIONED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
PREDICTORS WHICH SEEMS AN UNREASONABLE SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE ECMWF/GFS HAS BEEN FAVORED. IN FOLLOWING
CONTINUITY...WE HAVE FAVORED THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS
PACKAGE. ALL IN ALL WILL FAVOR A DRY COLD SCENARIO OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENDING THE CURRENT YEAR AND OPENING THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NEVADA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/89/89



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