Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 232138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
238 PM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly
east-central NV will end by early this evening. Cool afternoons
over the coming week with periods of unsettled weather. Most of
the next weeks valley rains will be across northern NV. There may
even be a little snow down to valley floors Thursday night into
Friday, though amounts would be light. Warming next weekend.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Trough over the Great
Basin today with associated front passing over east-central NV
this afternoon. So far today there have only been 3 lightning
strikes, all of them being in extreme southwest Eureka County,
well south of highway 50. As the front progresses east-southeast
there may be a few more lightning strikes across NE Nye or White
Pine County through 5 or 6 pm. Skies remain mostly cloudy over the
eastern half of the CWA this afternoon, with some scattering of
clouds over NW NV in post-frontal subsidence. Expect more clouds
to move in from the NW later this evening with some light rain
developing over Humboldt and Northern Elko Counties overnight. QPF
amounts in these areas tonight should range from a trace up to a
few hundredths of an inch...highest amounts over northern Humboldt
Decent jet support with the next incoming system. As such winds
will be stronger Monday with westerly winds generally 15-25 mph
with gusts of 25 to 40 mph in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Strongest winds are expected over and just east of
mountains, as well as areas where West to Northwest winds channel,
such as Tonopah and Wendover. Trough energy will gradually dig
south and east Monday and Monday night. Precipitation north of I80
will intensify slightly, while lighter precipitation expands
southeast across most of the rest of the CWA.
There will still be a slight chance of light rain on Tuesday,
however most areas will be dry. Another system embedded in the
west-northwest flow aloft will impact the region on Wednesday,
bringing similar rains and winds to the region along with some
more isolated thunderstorms, mainly over northeastern NV.
High temperatures through Wednesday will be roughly 10 degrees
below normal across the CWA. The additional cloud cover however
will help keep overnight lows near to slightly above normal.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Sunday. Models are in
good agreement that the long terms remains active/wet with below
average temps due to a moist zonal flow through Thursday night.
Thereafter, the area is sandwiched between a long-wave ridge axis
to the west and a long-wave trof to the east.
Thursday night through Friday. The flow will shift from a zonal
west northwesterly flow to a northwest flow as a strong jet
maximum drops into the base of a developing long wave trough.
This will serve to cut off the moisture flux into the silver state
and spin up a storm system in Utah. Showers will remain well
entrenched across Nevada as the storm system spins up. With the
strengthening of the storm system cold air will be dragged across
Nevada which will drop the snow levels to the valley floors. This
will cause the rain showers to shift to rain/snow during early
Friday morning. As the storm system deepens the moisture should be
drawn out of the state with only wrap around moisture remaining.
The drawing out of moisture will help to keep the valleys from
accumulating much snowfall. A gradual drying of most of Nevada
will occur as the moisture leaves but, some showers in the eastern
quarter of the state will remain from the wrap around moisture.
Gusty winds will accompany the developing storm system Thursday
night through Friday with the strongest winds during Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will drop with the intrusion of cold air
with highs in the 40s to 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s.
Friday through Sunday. A longwave ridge should build into the
Great Basin leaving Nevada sandwiched between the ridge and
trough axis. This should keep Nevada dry as the northwesterly flow
will not contain much moisture. Temperatures will gradually warm
with highs into the 50s to upper 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s by
.AVIATION...A weak storm system is brining gusty winds to all
terminals today. Chance for isolated thunderstorms at KELY during
the afternoon. Another storm system will bring showers and low
cloud decks to KWMC, KEKO, and KELY tomorrow. The ceilings may
drop to MVFR levels and cause mountain obscuration. Gusty winds in
the 20kt range are expected at all terminals with the next storm
system. Chance for afternoon thunderstorms for KWMC and KEKO
tomorrow. KTPH has a small chance for rain with next storm system
but chance is not high enough to reflect in taf at this time.
.HYDROLOGY...Some smaller rivers and creeks are running high.
The lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle Mountain to
the Humboldt/Pershing County line is still experiencing flooding
issues. At Wildhorse Reservoir, water is being released and
flowing over the spillway. As a result, the Owyhee River is
showing a rise. Outdoor enthusiasts should watch out for and be
cautious around higher flows.
Here are the locations where flood warnings are currently in
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Minor flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus, near Winnemucca: Minor to Moderate
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood
stage. Due to increased flow, River Statements have been issued
to provide information concerning the following sites:
Wildhorse Dam - at Wildhorse
Owyhee River - at Wildhorse
Owyhee River - near Mountain City
Mary`s River - near Deeth
Bruneau River - near Rowland