Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 292100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE PARTIAL CLEARING. AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEVADA...MAINLY ELKO COUNTY... ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SEASON`S FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLOSED LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR DAYS IS FINALLY
WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO, AS IT EJECTS OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN. MOIST WRAPAROUND HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE ACROSS NE
NEVADA TODAY, WITH MANY LOCALES PICKING UP ABOUT 0.10 INCH OF
STRATIFORM RAIN. MUCH OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WHICH NEEDED THE RAIN
THE MOST, RECEIVED 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAIN FROM THE WRAPAROUND
RAIN SHIELD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THICK CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE
SEPTEMBER NORMALS BENEATH THE WRAPAROUND CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL. CONCEPTUALLY,
THE RISK FOR FOG IS HIGH TONIGHT GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RECENT WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. MAX RH GRIDS CAME OUT WITH RH OF 100% FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/NE
NEVADA (ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY) FOR TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALL
COME DOWN TO CLOUD COVER IF RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL WORK INTO NEVADA,
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THIS HAPPENS, AND THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO QUICKLY FORM. THE TRICK IS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL ARRIVE IN NW NEVADA AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY, SPREADING THICKER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL
FORM TONIGHT, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER, SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND PLACED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL ADVISE EVENING/NIGHT SHIFTS TO WATCH THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, WITH
MOISTURE/CLOUDS HOLDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...REMAINING UNSETTLED AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WORK THROUGH NEVADA ON NW FLOW. 12Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
SPREADS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY ON
TUESDAY, SO INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS. MEASURABLE
RAIN MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
SCANT, BUT NOT ZERO, SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION VERY ISOLATED. FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CLIPPING THROUGH NE NEVADA SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MANY VALLEYS WILL APPROACH OR REACH FREEZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LACK OF DRAINAGE WINDS
WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

WEDNESDAY...CLEAR AND COOL IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. DESPITE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
THICKNESSES FALL AND ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR MOST VALLEYS.
NORTH SURFACE WINDS GIVE WAY TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY, PAVING THE WAY FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE
SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPCOMING DRY PATTERN. NO ISSUES EXPECTED
IN THE LONG RANGE. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE INITIALLY PROVIDING A COOL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS BY THE
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.  BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87/99







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