Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 261109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
409 AM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A lull in the weather will continue for central and
southern Nevada as weak ridging quickly moves across the state.
Across northern Nevada, some showers are possible as a weak front
moves through this afternoon. The next storm system will begin
moving into the Great Basin by tonight bringing another round of
showers and decreased temperatures for the start of the work week.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.
A weak front racing across northern Nevada today with a few
showers possible. Across central and southern Nevada, dry
conditions will continue as the ridge remains in place. The next
weather system arrives tonight and will continue into early
Tuesday. Another round of valley rain and mountain snow is
expected with this system.
There is some uncertainty as to precipitation type that will fall
in valleys across northern Nevada for Monday. Morning
temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 30s and if
precipitation should fall hard enough, temperatures could drop a
few degrees and allow for a complete change over to snow in the
morning. If precipitation does change to all snow, it will change
back to either a rain/snow mix or all rain by late morning/midday
Monday. Precipitation will taper to showers Monday night and come
to an end early Tuesday morning. Ridging quickly returns for
Tuesday with dry weather and warmer weather.
Winter Weather Advisories are currently issued for Northern Elko
and the Ruby Mountains, starting tonight and continuing into
Monday. 2-5" of new snowfall in valleys with 4-8" in the mountains
across Northern Elko. In the Ruby Mountains, expect 4-7" with
locally higher amounts on the highest peaks and favored northwest
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. The models are in
pretty good agreement through about Friday. After that there is
another shortwave progged by the ECWMF appearing upstream whereas
the shortwave is absent in the GFS solution. The previous GFS run
had a shortwave but with later timing.
Tuesday night through Wednesday. A shortwave ridge will keep
things dry during this period. Run-to-run consistency seems good
at this juncture. However this could change since the pattern is
still highly progressive. High temperatures will range from the
mid 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures will range from the 20s
to around 30 degrees.
Wednesday night through Saturday. Another trough will be moving
through the Great Basin region. This one looks cold enough for
snow to the valley floors by late Thursday and precipitation could
be spread all over the LKN HSA. There could be a few inches of
valley snowfall accumulation. There are some marked pattern
differences between the models showing up by Friday
night...upstream and downstream of Nevada. So there is a little
uncertainty about the timing of the exiting trough and whether or
not we get a follow-up trough on Sunday. High temperatures will
range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
.AVIATION...Clouds will be increasing this morning ahead of a low
pressure system moving through California. VCSH is expected
starting at KWMC early Sunday afternoon followed by VCSH at KEKO
later in the afternoon. Showers may not affect KTPH or KELY until
late on Monday. VFR will be the prevailing conditions at all 4
sites through Monday morning.
.HYDROLOGY...Storm systems this week will bring more valley rain
and mountain snow. The rainfall could exacerbate flooding issues
through the week. Rivers and creeks will likely continue to run
strong with the additional runoff.
Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:
Bruneau River: Minor flooding continues with moderate flooding
Humboldt River - Carlin: Minor flooding is occurring.
Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.
Marys River: Minor flooding continues.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:
Martin Creek near Paradise Valley and Salmon Falls Creek near
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PDT Monday for
Northern Elko County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range.