Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Thunderstorms to affect KPVW and KLBB in the first couple hours of
the period while likely to remain west of KCDS. Lingering
stratiform precipitation may produce a few lightning strikes for a
few hours after the initial convective line. Could be a brief
period of MVFR conditions with the convective line, otherwise VFR
conditions should prevail through the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

A storm complex is developing across ERN NM and the WRN OK
Panhandle. This complex is expected to push across all three TAF
sites later tonight. TAF amendments will be required if storms
look to directly impact a terminal, otherwise, will stay with VCTS
for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Better convection chances will take place tonight with a number of
better factors in place across the region.

We will see more of our typical northwest flow summer time
thunderstorms this evening through early Monday morning. The upper
ridge will continue to buckle with the ridge axis shifting east. A
more pronounced short wave aloft rotating around the upper ridge
will dive down east-southeast tonight promoting increased
overnight convection. Convection was already developing in central
New Mexico this afternoon in response to this short wave.
Clearing low stratus in eastern New Mexico will give way to
healthy surface based instability this afternoon. During the
evening and overnight hours locally, elevated instability will
continue amidst continued moist southeasterly flow. Given a very
unstable atmosphere, storms entering the region from the west will
be capable of becoming severe with large hail and wind the
primary threats.

Monday and Tuesday continue to remain more questionable in terms
of thunderstorm chances. An upper level low in southwestern Canada
will continue to flatten the ridge. We will lose much of our upper
level support with a decrease in jet level winds. After midweek,
we will see mostly zonal flow aloft but rising heights/thickness
values will boost temperatures back above seasonal averages. The
upper low over southwest Canada will move into the Northern Plains
and upper Midwest by late week sending a cold front down close to
the region. However, models have been backing off with this front
for Friday night/Saturday morning.




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