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FXUS64 KLUB 251207
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  30  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  50   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  70   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  60   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  70   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  40  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  80  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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