Area Forecast Discussion
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166
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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