Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 102344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
544 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. There is a
small chance of some light ground fog in the vicinity of the
terminals between about 12 UTC and 15 UTC. A cold front will bring
a gusty north-northwesterly wind shift through the terminals
Sunday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

Gusty south-southwest winds continue this afternoon as pressure
falls occur in the lee of the Rockies. Satellite shows some low
clouds/moisture attempting to advect northward into the Big
Country south of KABI. Some of this may make it into the far
southeast corner of the CWA this evening before winds veer more
southwesterly overnight ushering in drier air at the surface and
above. Further up, some dense cirrus is starting to show up on
area webcams and satellite across the northern South Plains as a
storm system rips eastward across the northern, lower 48.

Generally broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the
eastern half of the country early in the forecast as a cold polar
low moves around Hudson Bay. Northwesterly flow upstream of the trough
axis will maintain generally dry conditions across the High Plains
into the middle of the coming week. A series of cold fronts will
bring airmasses with varying degrees of coolness southward through
this time period with the first front forecast to move across the
Panhandle Sunday, entering the northern South Plains late in the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, strong downslope winds are
expected. Though guidance continues to come down some on speeds,
expect westerly winds of 20-30 mph from late morning into the
afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary. This will also help aid
warming with afternoon temperatures in excess of 15 degrees above
normal on Sunday. Afternoon relative humidities should remain high
enough to limit wildfire concerns but with dry fuels and strong
winds, locally elevated conditions will exist.

A surface ridge will slide quickly east across the area leaving
Monday cooler with winds turning back to a westerly direction late
in the day. Another frontal boundary will slide south into the
area Monday night offering cooler conditions for Tuesday as low
level flow is slower to veer to the east and southeast helping
hold warmer 850 mb temps to the west over eastern New Mexico. A
much colder airmass associated with the strong upper low passing
north of the Great Lakes will drive south through the middle of
the country on Wednesday. Upper flow however takes the axis of the
coldest air eastward into the Ohio Valley rather than providing a
stronger surface ridge down the eastern slopes of the Rockies as
earlier forecasts had depicted. This should result in only a brief
shot of Polar air late Wednesday into Thursday when afternoon
highs will return to near normal. There likely will be a sharp
temperature gradient if the latest models are correct with the
cold, stubborn air holding sway off the Caprock.

Models are in good agreement though on warm advection beginning
to quickly erode the cold dome with temperatures returning well into
the 60s by the end of the week. From Thursday on, another surge of
polar air tracks southward across the prairie provinces of Canada
and begins to settle into the Intermountain West where an upper
level trough sharpens with time. Anticipate a good warm advection
regime ahead of the trough late Thursday into Friday which could
offer a small chance of showers most likely across the Rolling
Plains. This pattern also suggests a more direct shot of some
very cold air this time next weekend but just beyond the extent of
this forecast as the trough out west begins to eject east.




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