Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 050737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NAVY AEROSOL MODEL STILL DEPICTS A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST PUSHING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. EVIDENCE OF THIS DUST IS ALSO SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. AS A
RESULT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HAZY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME RATHER STRONG DUE
TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF A SAL
EVENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME FRAME STEERING FLOW SHOULD STILL
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK TUTT-LIKE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW SEEMS TO BE DEPICTED WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN SO ITS AFFECT ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL...PROVIDING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS IT SWINGS BY UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN CONSISTENT IN SLIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND CENTERING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW MID-
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH WILL BE MONITORING FOR
FU/BR/HZ RESTRICTIONS AT NAPLES OVERNIGHT. FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
IMPACT PBI DURING THE DAY...AND APF DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO
VCTS IN PLACE THERE. OTHERWISE...EAST WIND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHTS...10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. GULF BREEZE WILL BRING SW WINDS TO NAPLES
SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONLY
THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  79 /  10  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  92  76 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK


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