Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 311935
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICA CONTINENT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AIRMASS. A STRONG TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WILL LACK THE PUSH AND
ONLY MAKE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE IT WILL STALL. DUE TO THE
MOISTENING FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
TREND FOR SOME FOG OVER THE INTERIOR ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT BUT ADD
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH
THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREA
WHERE THE DOMINATING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY
SHOW PWAT AT AROUND 1.25-1.4" AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING ONCE AGAIN
AS DRIER FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND THEN PHASING IN WITH
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INDUCE SURFACE
PRESSURE TO LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS SYNOPTIC FLOW BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO, IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO
BE EXPECTED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA. AT ANY RATE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
AGAIN BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER
AIR RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT
WITH A ENE WIND OF 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WIND WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  76  70  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  75  68  81 /  10  10  20  20
MIAMI            62  75  68  81 /  10  10  10  20
NAPLES           56  77  64  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM


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