Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 272355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

TRANQUIL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. STILL MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  20  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD


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