Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 300018
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
818 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated the short term forecast to reflect current convection
patterns and also for the over night period. Active convection continues
this evening across the Lake region and the western
peninsula...including the near shore Gulf waters west of Marco
Island. For the over night period...changes were made to reflect
less confidence in showers/thunderstorms across the Atlantic
waters and Atlantic metro areas over night. Recent meso-scale
models are not indicating much activity over these areas over
night but the SREF model continues to indicate isolated convection
potential. So changed the over night forecast to include a slight
chance of thunderstorms but with reduced confidence.

60

&&

.AVIATION...

For the short term...isolated thunderstorms are just off Marco
Island and amended to add VCTS to terminal KAPF for the early
evening hours although only shower activity is expected with MVFR
conditions possible with any shower activity. Otherwise for the
Atlantic coast terminals mainly VFR conditions are forecast
through the evening hours. There may be a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorm over night for the Atlantic coast terminals
but confidence is currently low for any thunderstorm activity.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest model guidance and recent water vapor imagery indicate
a broad and elongated upper level trough extending across the
southeastern states and into the Florida peninsula including the
adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. Satellite base precipitable
water estimates indicate near to slightly less than norm pwat`s
across most of South Florida but there is deeper moisture across
eastern Palm Beach county extending eastward into the northwest
Bahamas islands.

Forecast for tonight and Monday...the latest global model guidance
suggests that the upper level trough could drift a bit eastward
tonight with a weak low level trough reflection across the local
Atlantic waters. This could result in isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms across the local Atlantic waters and the
Atlantic metro areas over night and is reflected in the forecast.
For Monday afternoon...latest guidance indicates the upper level
trough persisting across the region and deeper moisture persisting
across South Florida. This will allow for mainly interior
peninsula showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening
with the greatest coverage and more numerous activity expected
across the interior peninsula.

Rip currents...with no local swell forecast and lighter regional
winds only a slight risk of rip currents is expected across the
Atlantic coast beaches through at least mid-week and likely through the week.

Forecast for Tuesday through Friday...latest guidance consensus
indicates the upper level trough lingering across the eastern Gulf
through at least Wednesday with diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms forecast Tuesday through Friday with
greatest coverage across the interior regions. Although on Tuesday
and Wednesday more isolated to scattered activity is forecast.

Extended forecast for next weekend...the global models now
indicate an upper level low and mid level trough building into
Texas and the northwest Gulf late in the week with a broad/weak
surface low in the northwest Gulf. This scenario would bring a
northward surge of deeper moisture into South Florida Saturday and
Sunday with increasing chances of regional showers/thunderstorms
and model trends indicate the northward moisture surge could
continue into early next week.

MARINE...

Regional winds are forecast to be 10 knots or less and generally
easterly to southeasterly through mid-week with Gulf seas 2 feet
or less through this period and Atlantic/Gulf stream seas 2 to 4
feet tonight then 2 feet or less thereafter through mid-week.
Otherwise winds and seas forecast to be well below hazardous
levels through the extended period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  87  74  89 /  20  40  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  76  88 /  20  40  10  30
Miami            75  89  75  90 /  20  50  20  30
Naples           71  88  72  89 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD


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