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000
FXUS62 KMFL 241128 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT030 DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SO
HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW, BECOMING NE
AND EVENTUALLY EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST COAST, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW AT KAPF WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST
STATES FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND IS
FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND DRIER MID TO UPPER AIR WILL ALSO START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST IS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD
AND ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENTERING THE REGION WITH
FORECAST PWATS ONLY AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE FORECAST INDICATING
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

BY SUNDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
OVERALL STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED.

OVER THE WEEKEND THERE WILL A COOLING TREND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
SUNDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S AND THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
THE CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND
SEAS RESPOND TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SATURDAY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
14 TO 18 KNOT RANGE WITH THAT TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. BY LATE SATURDAY ATLANTIC SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
3 TO 5 FEET AND MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN THAT RANGE INTO MID-WEEK.

FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF WATERS...WINDS IN THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH OFF SHORE SEAS FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
4 FEET RANGE WITH THAT RANGE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A PRE-CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE FUTURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

FIRE WEATHER...

AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD
REACH THE UPPER THIRTIES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY TODAY AND THEN
BY SUNDAY ACROSS GLADES...HENDRY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER
COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  72  84  72 / 10 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  76  86  74 / 10 10 10 -
MIAMI            92  75  87  74 / 10 10 20 0
NAPLES           90  73  91  65 / 10 10 10 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB