Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 251351
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
951 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Have extended Atlantic Small Craft Advisory through 5 PM EDT as it
appears winds will not subside until late afternoon or early
evening. Easterly low-level flow continues to advect some stratocu
from Atlantic onto sea-coast, but as atmosphere has dried
slightly, only a few isolated light showers are ongoing. Expect
this trend to continue through tonight, with potential for a
afternoon Gulf breeze inducing some isolated activity 5-20 miles
inland across Collier county.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
Shower coverage across Miami-Dade and Broward counties is expected
to diminish through the morning, thus VCSH ends at 14z.
Thereafter, a rogue shower cant be ruled out across South Florida,
but impacts should be minimal. VFR conditions should prevail into
Sunday. East/just S of due east/ wind will occur today with speeds
of 15 to 20 knots possible, especially during the afternoon,
before diminishing to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Gulf breeze is
currently forecast to transition winds at KAPF to SW mid/late
afternoon, although confidence in this occurring is low.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
A frontal boundary continues to linger across the Florida Straits through
the central Bahamas, with easterly flow continuing to bring
patches of moisture/cloudiness across the Atlantic waters with
widely dispersed showers noted across the Atlantic waters and
affecting the eastern peninsula on occasional.
Forecast for today and Sunday...
Over the weekend a surface low and developing front will move
northeast across the central CONUS while a surface trough
currently near Puerto Rico will slowly deepen and move north.
These features will keep South Florida under a weak surface ridge
and an upper level ridge through the weekend, and there will not
be any deep moisture available. Therefore mainly a dry forecast
over the weekend. However, persistent easterly flow across the
regional Atlantic waters will allow some passing showers and
Bahamas streamers for isolated showers to impact the Atlantic
waters and eastern peninsula from time to time. In addition as the
easterlies slowly weaken today, the Gulf coast sea breeze should
form late this afternoon and on Sunday, allowing for a few showers
across the western interior regions late afternoon/evening. Any
potential for thunderstorms should be slight if any as mid-level
temperatures are expected to increase through the day.
Forecast for early next week...
For the early part of the week mainly stable weather is forecast but
need to stress the uncertainties in the forecast. The
aforementioned surface low forecast to develop north of Puerto
Rico is forecast to further develop and drift northeast Monday and
Tuesday, with broad general agreement amongst the global models.
Under this scenario, weak high pressure would dominate across
South Florida with the lack of deep moisture continuing and no
synoptic factors contributing to potential for rainfall.
Late next week into next weekend the global models start to
diverge considerably in their solutions and will have to wait and
see once there is more general agreement, but during this period
mainly high pressure across the region is forecast with minimal
Hazardous seas across the Atlantic and Gulf Stream waters are
expected to continue through about 12z this morning then slowly
subside through the afternoon. Given the uncertainties, will allow
the Small Craft Advisory across these waters to expire at 18z.
The winds across the Atlantic and Gulf Stream waters are forecast
to slowly subside early this morning and continue subsiding
through the afternoon and evening hours, and forecast to go below
20 knots around 12z with a pre-cautionary statement after 18z. A
pre-cautionary statement will also be necessary for the off shore
Gulf waters until about 18z today. Winds and seas expected to
slowly subside through Sunday. Through the extended forecast, no
hazardous seas are forecast and winds currently not forecast to
exceed 20 knots.
A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
coast beaches today through Sunday, and will transition to a more
moderate risk by Monday as winds and seas continue to subside.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 80 68 81 66 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 80 70 81 69 / 20 20 20 10
Miami 80 69 82 67 / 20 20 20 10
Naples 82 63 82 63 / 20 20 20 20
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ630-