Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
401 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017


SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/
Scattered to numerous showers have expectedly overspread South
Florida overnight, with some areas receiving up to 1 inch of
rainfall. Most widespread activity has remained over Florida
Keys, and expect this activity, associated with weak surface low
pressure center to mainly move northeastward and remain offshore.
Still though, next 12 to 18 hours look pretty wet, as PWATs remain
close to 2 inches. Few thunderstorms remain possible, and embedded
convection is already occurring. Dont expect any intense
thunderstorms, just CG risk into the evening, as instability will
be quiet modest. Diurnal heating will be curbed by overcast
conditions with precipitation, thus maxima will likely be in low

As low pressure and associated moisture plume are shunted to the
east by approaching high pressure, drier air will move into the
region tonight and especially Monday. Winds will veer westerly and
ahead of a cold front, with ample sunshine temperatures will
soar, reaching upper 80s toward 90F on the east coast. Frontal
passage in the evening could have isolated showers with it, but
little low-level convergence and moisture void should preclude
anything too significant. A thunderstorm cant be ruled out, but
at this point probability looks too low to warrant keeping thunder
in grids. Monday and and Tuesday, expect west wind, mostly clear
skies, and seasonably warm temperatures.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday Night/
Upper level trough will close off over the mid-Atlantic Tuesday
night then drift into the northeast CONUS Wednesday and Thursday.
This will keep South Florida in dry west/southwest pattern as high
pressure settles in. Winds turn again to the southeast Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures will rise to levels slightly above
normal, well into the 80s with a few spots, especially out west
at week`s end, reaching low 90s. Minima will be 60s, with 70s in
the urban areas east.


Low pressure moving through the area today and tonight will bring
winds from variable directions, but speeds outside of any isolated
thunderstorms should remain under 20 knots. As low pressure
departs to the north and east, winds turn west Monday. Cold front
moves through Monday night, reinforcing dry westerly flow through
mid-week. Seas and winds may briefly elevate behind this front,
but at this point levels don`t look to be hazardous.


Pockets of light-moderate SHRA ongoing with CIGS/VSBYS generally
remaining VFR at the moment. Similar conditions expected to
continue through early this morning. VCSH for most of the sites,
with occasional MVFR cigs in heavier activity. The only exception
to this is at KAPF and KPBI taf sites, where the showers will not
get going until after sunrise. Increase in steadier RA with
embedded TS expected from south to north after 08Z, mainly
affecting east coast sites, with prevailing MVFR cigs around
FL030-035. ESE winds around 10 kts overnight except KAPF which
will remain VRB05kt through cycle. Atlantic sites will see SE
winds increasing to 10-13kts after 14Z outside of convection, but
should turn more southwest between 18z and 21Z at KMIA, KTMB, and
KOPF taf sites.


Remnant wave action and coastal resettling will continue to lead
to favorable conditions for rip currents on Atlantic waters today,
and with 2 feet northeasterly swell entering the waters, High Risk
of Rip Currents continues through today. Winds will turn westerly
early this week, reducing risk on Atlantic waters but
possibly increasing risk on Gulf waters.


Poor dispersion today but otherwise moist conditions relative to
past week or so. Rainfall amounts of up to an inch or so are
possible today, before drier weather moves in. At this point,
deterministic forecast has relative humidity values and wind
speeds just barely avoiding fire weather criteria across Collier,
Hendry, and Glades counties Tuesday through Thursday, so needless
to day, forecast conditions in these areas will be closely watched
over the coming days for the potential need for a Fire Weather


West Palm Beach  82  70  88  66 /  60  30  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  82  72  89  69 /  60  30  20   0
Miami            83  72  89  70 /  60  30  20   0
Naples           82  72  81  65 /  40  10  10   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.


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