Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 281727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight as a
tropical disturbances passes by to our south. MVFR or IFR
conditions could occur in any shower or thunderstorm activity.
Winds will be out of the east at 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
25 knots across all terminals this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1014 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will occur throughout the day across South Florida as this
tropical area of low pressure moves through the Florida Straits
today. Squally weather is likely at times today, especially across
the East Coast Metro Areas as showers and thunderstorms move in
from the Atlantic.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 731 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the
forecast period as a tropical wave passes to the south of the
region. VFR conditions will prevail, however, there could be some
MVFR or IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be
easterly with speeds near 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots through
the early evening hours on Sunday. Winds will then drop down to
around 10 knots during the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Today-Tuesday: The focus for the next few days will be on the
weak and disorganized area of low pressure currently near the
north coast of Cuba. The tropical low is forecast to move through
the Florida Straits through the day, and into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Saturday night`s sounding showed PWATs
slightly lower at around 2", with shower coverage also a little
lower overnight as we saw some effects of the subsidence ahead of
the low.

As we head through the day, especially into this afternoon and
evening, deep tropical moisture will rapidly return to South Florida
with PWATs coming up to 2.3 to 2.4". Brisk east-northeast, and
then east-southeast flow will bring numerous showers and storms
across the region through Tuesday. Better chances will be in the
afternoons with some modest daytime heating. Squally weather is
likely at times, especially along the east coast as gusty showers
and storms periodically move in from the Atlantic. It will be
breezy at times even outside of storms.

Forecast rainfall amounts show potential for 2 to 4 inches with
the heaviest downpours through mid-week, mainly in the Monday-
Tuesday time frame. However, it is important to keep in mind
that these amounts will be highly dependent on the final track
and outcome of the tropical wave. Even at lower amounts, locally
heavy rainfall will be concern with poor drainage flooding
possible, especially in urbanized areas. While not the main
threat, a few stronger storms may produce wind gusts to 40-50 mph
as they move into the east coast, or are enhanced by heating over
the interior.

The increasing east winds, and 1-2ft swell filtering into the
Palm Beach waters into Monday will bring a high risk of rip
currents to the Atlantic beaches over the next few days. Rough
surf will also be a concern along the beaches.

Wednesday-Saturday: Regardless of the eventual development, or
lack thereof, of the tropical low, the forecast through at least
mid week keeps the region in deep tropical moisture and a
continuing unsettled pattern. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, with higher chances in the afternoon and
evening hours, though activity may occur at anytime.

The unsettled weather may extend into Thursday, although coverage
should be decreasing by then. A more typical summer pattern may
return to South Florida by the upcoming weekend. Frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threats.
In addition, the abundant moisture will keep conditions muggy and
humid.

AVIATION...
A tropical wave passing south of the region will impact the TAF
sites with passing scattered showers and thunderstorms, with more
widespread coverage possible after 00z Monday. Have gone with VCTS
at the east coast TAF sites through the period, with VCSH possible
at KAPF possible by 13z and VCTS by 16z. VFR flying conditions
will generally prevail outside of any MVFR/IFR associated with
passing showers and thunderstorms.

Winds will be easterly around 10 knots overnight, increasing
during the daytime hours around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible, especially for the east coast TAF sites. Winds will
decrease somewhat after 00z, but still be 10-15 knots at times.

MARINE...

Small craft should exercise caution over all the Atlantic coastal
waters during the next couple of days.

East-southeast winds at least 15kts will continue over all the
waters through Monday, with 15-20kts possible at times as an area of
low pressure is forecast to move through the Florida Straits into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. For the moment, winds are
forecast to veer more south-southwest into mid week. But considerable
uncertainty remains for winds and seas into mid week hinging on
the eventual movement and potential development of this
disturbance.

Seas are currently forecast to be around 2-4ft in both the the
Atlantic and Gulf, occasionally up to 6 feet at times through mid
week. However this will likely continue to fluctuate with changes
in the forecast.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over all the waters
through midweek, with rough seas and locally gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  88  76  89 /  60  80  60  80
Fort Lauderdale  77  86  77  86 /  60  80  70  80
Miami            78  87  77  88 /  70  80  70  80
Naples           77  90  77  89 /  30  70  60  80

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...55/CWC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.