Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 100902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE FOR THE END OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE CURBED COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN
GENERAL...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED. MOST
AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL...DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND MAXIMA
SHOULD REACH LOW/MID 60S.

PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MRNG...WHEN MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL REACH UPPER 30S. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGH...SO WIND CHILL VALUES MAY NOT
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN LIGHTEN ENOUGH...CANT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN GLADES /MAYBE HENDRY/ COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND FROST HASNT BEEN PLACED IN GRIDS.
AFTER TONIGHT...SLOW WARMING TREND COMMENCES...WITH MAXIMA BY
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO SURPASS 70F AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND A GRADUALLY RETURN OF MOISTURE AFTER FLOW TURNS
EASTERLY BY WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...ON MORE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON FORECASTING POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THEN LIFTING
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD THEN CROSS
FLORIDA TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE FIRST DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
THE AREA IN OVER A WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SECONDARY WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS WSW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF
IT AND VEERING WNW BEHIND IT. SOME GUSTINESS TO 18-20KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY, BUT SPEEDS LOOKS TEMPORARY WITH WINDS
BECOMING WNW 8-10KTS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE THROUGH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM GULF. PREVAILING MID-HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY,
EDGING TOWARDS SKC LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT ALL
LEVELS. /ALM

&&

.MARINE...
CHANGES TO ONGOING MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE DROPPING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...BISCAYNE BAY...AND NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...GULF SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MID-AFTN
AS SEAS ARE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ADVISORY MAINLY FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...AND WHERE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED...OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY...HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN EAST FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY RETURNS THEM TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN BE HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FALL
TO NEAR 35 PERCENT EACH OF THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND ERC VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  41  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  47  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  48  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           62  44  68  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM


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