Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281132 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
732 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Generally VFR flying conditions will prevail at the TAF sites,
with MVFR and possibly IFR restrictions in and around
thunderstorms. With flow becoming more south/southwest, east coast
sites should see a better opportunity for activity later this
morning and through the afternoon, with VCTS possible. Will
continue to assess trends in model guidance and may include TEMPO
groups to account for better timing in future amendments. East
coast sea breeze will have a hard time pushing inland today, but
still expect southeast winds generally around 10 knots, except
southwesterly at KAPF.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017/

Today: Upper trough over Southern GA and Northern FL will move into
Western Atlantic waters today before it gets pick up by a deepening
trough along the northeast plains the coming week. This has allowed
for the ridge to erode with a more s to sw flow setting up over the
FL peninsula. There is still the potential for afternoon
scattered showers and storms mainly in the interior and building
into the east coast metro areas as the steering flow shifts more
southwest today. This will also limit east coast sea breeze from
developing this PM. High temperatures will remain above normal
ranging from the low to mid 90s across the forecast area.
Dewpoints will lower into the mid to low 70s today helping keep
heat indices ranging from the 100-108. Conditions will remain
below advisory criteria at this time for all South FL.

This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow will prevail through
the weekend as upper level low over the northeast plains deepens an
elongated trough along the east coast. This trough is expected to
remain in place through next week, potentially digging as far south
to Fl bringing an unseasonably robust surface front into the state
Monday, potentially reaching as far south as Central FL. Abundant
deep moisture ahead of the front will result in an increase period
of precipitation through mid week across South FL, with a few
more stronger storms possible as temps aloft cool down. Western
Atlantic ridge gradually retrogrades westward returning se flow
across south FL and as a result lifting the moist boundary north.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorm through the end
of the week but with less coverage into Friday.

A thick plume of Saharan dust is observed tracking east over the
Atlantic. This time it looks more robust stretching across the
Atlantic into the Greater Antilles and eventually into Florida by
the end of the week into next weekend. Models continue to show a
decent bulk of it north enough for most of the FL peninsula to feel
the effects of it.

MARINE...Southeasterly winds will veer south to southwest today into
the weekend around 10 knots and begin to pick up up to 15 knots over
the 15 knots into Sunday. Expect the Gulf seabreeze to develop today,
with the Atlantic breeze struggling to develop as winds shift more
sw. Afternoon showers and storms will generally remain over the
interior, with more isolated activity over the open waters during
the nights and morning. Coverage of showers and storms are expected
to increase as we head into the weekend and early next week. Ridge
begins to build by the end of the week returning light southeast
flow across the coastal waters.

A typical summertime pattern will be in place once again, with
showers developing in the morning hours, and thunderstorms by
early afternoon for all TAF sites. The uncertainty is how far
inland they will occur. Some models do have the convection further
inland, so it is possible the TS is a little over done today, but,
it should be close enough to warrant the mention in the forecast.

West Palm Beach  94  78  95  79 /  50  40  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  94  80  94  80 /  30  30  30  20
Miami            94  80  94  80 /  40  30  30  20
Naples           93  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  40



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