Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 292037
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Anti-cyclonic flow around an elongated ridge of high
pressure, located northeast of Southern Florida will prolong the
easterly flow pattern aloft today. However, observed in this
mornings 12Z sounding, light and variable winds were residing from
the surface up to near 700 mb. Thus, slow moving, possibly
stationary storms are likely today. This, in combination with PWATs
nearing 2.0 inches, bring the concern of local flooding to areas
with poor drainage over the interior. The HRRR and local WRF
models expand the current activity through this evening, affecting
mainly the interior and Gulf Coast regions, then diminish it
overnight. The main threats with these storms today will be the
local flooding, erratic gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent
cloud to ground lightning. Due to a relatively high freezing
level, above 15000 ft msl, only small hail is expected to reach
the ground. On Saturday, stronger easterly flow, and lower PWATS
will re- establish again with more of a typical summertime
pattern. Garden variety showers and storms should form over the
interior during the afternoon and move westward towards the Gulf
Coast by evening.

Heat index values over the east coast metro will range between
100-105 today with 105-108 over inland and western regions. Anyone
outdoors should stay hydrated and take frequent cooling breaks to
fight off heat illness.

On Sunday, an upper level disturbance moving in from
the east will come into play. Surrounding this feature, models
indicate 500 mb temperatures dropping to around -8 C and an increase
in lower and mid level moisture. Moist and unstable conditions will
lead to scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms over all zones
in Southern Florida. By Monday, behind this disturbance, anti-
cyclonic vorticity advection and dry Saharan air may cap convection
and decrease POPs. Late Monday into Wednesday, both the latest runs
of the GFS and ECMWF propagate a tropical wave rapidly east to west
across the northern Carribean. During this timeframe, southeasterly
winds at 850 mb are forecast to bring a healthy surge of moisture
from the tropics to South Florida and shower/storm activity will
increase once again. Drier air should back filter in behind this
surge Thursday into Friday to help suppress activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Slow moving showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed
across southeast Florida along the sea breeze. Brief IFR
conditions and gusty winds are possible under the heaviest
showers, otherwise VFR will prevail. Activity may spread into the
KAPF vicinity later today. Showers expected to diminish after
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the region will control the weather into
early next week. Expect east southeast winds 10-15 knots over the
Atlantic throughout the period with waves generally 3 feet or
less. By mid-next week, winds and seas will increase slightly as a
tropical wave passes over the northern Carribean.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  93  79  90 /  10  20  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  10  20  40  50
Miami            79  91  79  92 /  10  20  40  60
Naples           76  91  76  92 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27/JT
LONG TERM....27/JT
AVIATION...22/KS



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