Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 262150
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
250 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Short term...This afternoon through Sunday...Temperatures are
similar to yesterday at this time, with high temperatures expected
to be slightly below normal for this time of year. Onshore flow
continues...stronger than yesterday...and will result in gusty
northwest winds later this afternoon. Marine layer low clouds
will affect the coast and Umpqua Basin this evening and overnight
again due to the continued onshore flow and plenty of stratus to
work with over the waters. Further east, freezing temperatures
are expected in portions of the Klamath Basin and a freeze warning
has been issued at NPWMFR. Model trends have been consistent in
showing temperatures tonight colder than last night, and given
that a few stations recorded freezing temperatures last night, we
have confidence in the freeze warning. Again, Friday night should
be the coldest night of the week mainly due to lighter winds and
cooler air mass, and we have maintained a freeze watch for that
time.

Temperatures will be similar Friday compared to today as an upper
trough to the north maintains the relatively cool air mass and
onshore flow. Saturday will begin the warmup that will last through
the weekend as temperatures reach above normal readings and then
bump into the 80s Sunday and Monday. We have removed the chance of
rain for Sunday due to good model agreement on little instability
and dry westerly flow.

.Long Term...Monday through Thursday Night...Upper level ridging
will be in control of the area throughout much of the extended term.
as typical of the warmer season, thermal troughing will develop to
our south, and this will produce an extended period of offshore
easterly flow. Monday will be the warmest day at the coast, then when
the trough shifts inland, temperatures there will cool Tuesday into
Wednesday. Inland, warming will continue, with the warmest day
likely to be Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday before slight cooling by
the end of the term. Thursday, a large scale trough over the eastern
Pacific will approach the West Coast, shifting winds to a more
onshore southwesterly flow.

This pattern usually results in a dry period. However, models
solutions are showing a weak shortwave within the upper level flow
during the afternoon Wednesday, and this may be enough to produce
some convection along and west of the Cascades. Have introduced a
slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to cover this
thinking. Thunderstorms and showers are also possible Thursday
afternoon under a similar pattern, although the focus should be
slightly closer to the coast. Confidence in convection both days is
low, but should increase if models continue with this trend over the
next several runs. -BPN


&&

.Aviation...For the 26/12Z TAF cycle...Stratus covers much of the
west side this morning, but cigs are mostly VFR. The exception is at
the south coast where areas IFR cigs are present. All of this will
diminish by mid morning with VFR thereafter. On the east side,
patchy fog is lowering vis to IFR, including at KLMT. This will burn
off by mid morning (if not sooner) as well. -Wright

&&

.Marine...Updated 830 AM PDT Thu 26 May 2016...Strengthening high
pressure over the eastern Pacific and low pressure inland are
bringing strong north winds and choppy seas to the coastal waters,
especially south of Cape Blanco.  Winds will peak this afternoon and
evening with gales south of Cape Blanco. This pattern will remain in
place through the first part of the holiday weekend, but winds will
be slightly weaker. North gales will be possible again by Memorial
Day as a strong thermal trough develops, at least briefly, along the
coast. -Wright/BPN

&&

.MFR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     ORZ029.
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM PDT Friday for ORZ029.

CA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     CAZ084.
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ084.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ356-376.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

$$

NSK/BPN/BPN



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