Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 282232
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LAST RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH, BUT SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH WELCOME SIGHT: SNOW COVERED
MOUNTAINS IN THE CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY, SNOWFALL WAS RELATIVELY
LIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR AND
POTENTIALLY SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW DURING THE SHORT TERM, WARMER AIR
LATER IN THE TERM WILL LIKELY MELT THIS NEW SNOW RATHER QUICKLY.

REGARDING THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR, MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY HAVE
PRODUCED A SHARPER TROUGH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ENTERING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS HAS INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
WITHIN THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING ME TO LOWER THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD DROP TO 2500 TO
3000 FEET AT THEIR LOWEST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE, AND WITH THE SHARPER TROUGH ALSO
TRACKING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE CASCADES AND WEST SIDE. EVEN
AT THE BEST LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TO COLD MORNING LOWS AND
SEASONAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. -BPN

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK, THE GFS,GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING
THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE AN UN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, CENTERED NEAR 43N AND 146W, WELL
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND STRENGTHEN SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SO, WHILE THE LOW
OFFSHORE MAY BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA, OVERALL
EXPECT CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW MAY
APPROACH THE PACNW COAST AND THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN BREAKING DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT
EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
IN THE EVENING. THEN EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN
INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, SATURDAY, 28 FEB, 2015...NORTHERLY WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TODAY AND BUILD TO A PEAK THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST MOVES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND COASTAL LOW WILL
PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVING SOUTH WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND AN INCREASE OF WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL FOLLOW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY THEN REMAIN WEAK INTO SATURDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC



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