Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Short term concerns are thunder threat this morning and overall
shower trend into the afternoon.

We did have an area of thunder move across far southern MN early
this morning...with some small hail indicated along the I90
corridor. As this area of thunder raced into southeast MN...another
area of isolated thunder developed west of the metro along a
boundary of mid level frontogenesis and -EPV.  This should work east
early this morning...taking the thunder threat with it. The rain
showers should continue through the morning across the southeast
cwa...before tapering this afternoon. Will trail pops off some to
the southeast. Along with the rain and clouds...some fog is also
present where the boundary layer became saturated.  This should
gradually improve through the morning. With clouds and rain much of
the day across the region...temperatures are expected to warm
through the lower and mid 40s.

The upper low remains to the south of the area tonight...and will
continue threat of light rain to the southern cwa. Some drier air
will work into the northwest cwa as high pressure begins to shift
east. This will thin the clouds over that area tonight and overnight
lows are expected to cool to 30 to 35.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A parade of short waves will rule the long term. Model consensus
is high on the first wave, which will be located over MO at the
start of the long term. This feature will move slowly northeast to
the central Great Lakes by Monday. As it does so, some light
rain/showers will occur across eastern and southern sections of
the FA. Due to the northeast winds and cooler nighttime
temperatures, any precipitation that falls Saturday night/early
Sunday across central MN and northern areas of WI will be a
wintry mix. At this point, precipitation amounts look to be quite

An elongated surface ridge will pass across the local area on
Tuesday. This has been well forecast for several days now by the
deterministic models and is the nicest day on the long term with
regard to sky cover (mostly sunny).

Disagreement continues tonight on the handling of the next
shortwave for Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS continues to hold
this feature to our south, with the northern edge of the
precipitation shield only reaching northern IA. This has been the
case now for several nights while the ECMWF lifts this wave into
our area. Part of the answer for this difference in movement is
likely tied to yet another strong short wave/closed low/ moving
into the western U.S. during the aforementioned time. The incoming
wave is farther north on the ECMWF versus the GFS, and is the
kicker for the Plains short wave and why it moves differently
between the two solutions. In addition, the ECMWF has a stronger
northern stream wave moving through our area over that of the GFS
during this same time. The Canadian has the northern wave but
keeps the southern feature down over Texas. So at this point only
some small pops were used for Wednesday afternoon and night to
account for precipitation chances with the northern stream short

Few changes were made to the temperatures being forecast in the
long term from the past several cycles. Middle to upper 40s will
be common for highs Saturday and Sunday with highs in the lower to
middle 50s from Monday onward. Lows will be pretty much in the
middle 30s with the exception of Saturday night. Overall, the long
term will average out about 7 or 8 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Thunder threat has pretty much ended. Showers/light rain remains
over the southeast half of the area. Still have strong
frontogenesis progged over the southeast as well...mainly
affecting KEAU/KMSP and KRNH during the morning. Should see
erosion of lower IFR cigs...lifting to at least MVFR during the
afternoon. Could see further erosion of clouds producing some
holes over the northwest areas. Otherwise...rain threat shifts to
the south of the TAF sites by evening. Question remains how much
low level moisture will remain overnight. For the moment...will
continue the mvfr cigs over most of the area. Surface winds n-ne
during the day...perhaps a bit gusty. Then more northeast/east
into tonight and Saturday.

KMSP...Expect IFR cigs -ra/-dz through the morning with mvfr cigs
developing this afternoon and remaining into Saturday. NE winds
expected through much of the period...perhaps a bit gusty this

Sat Night...Chc MVFR -RA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR. Wind ENE 5 kts.
Mon...Chc MVFR Early. Wind N 5 kts.




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