Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230752
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
152 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

South winds in the lower trop will provide a warm air advection
environ for the next 24 to 36 hours, prior to a now developing
weather system taking shape and sweeping thru the area with
showers and thunderstorms chances mainly Friday afternoon and
evening. We`ll see dew points remain in the 50s and possibly nudge
toward 60F ahead of the front Friday pm. That`ll make a warm and
humid air mass for late Feb. The primary limiting factor for
storms is columnar moisture/timing, but surface dew points may
provide an impetus for otherwise good lift/instability available
to gen up some surface based cells. If so, we can expect marginal
to slight (east) risk of svr storms Fri pm/evening with damaging
winds the primary svr threat/hazard.

Air temps Today and again Fri will top out in the lower 70s,
which will be approaching record warmth for this time of year:

Today Record High.... 75 (PAH)... 77 (EVV)... 76 (CGI).
Friday Record High... 73 (PAH)... 72 (EVV)... 73 (CGI).
Most of these records were set in 1982, 1985, and/or 2000.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast confidence from Sunday through Wednesday remains below
average with less than optimal agreement among forecast models and
substantial run-to-run fluctuations.

The forecast area will start off dry and seasonably cool on Sunday
as high pressure begins to shift east of the area. By Sunday night
and Monday, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate enough of an eastward
push of upper level energy from the Plains to warrant an increasing
chance of showers. Compared with the ECMWF and Canadian, the 00Z GFS
seems overdone with precipitation coverage during this time, but
again confidence is very low. As with prior model runs, forecast low
level temperature profiles remain too warm to support anything other
than rain during this time.

A better chance of showers and eventually thunderstorms overspreads
the area by Tuesday and Tuesday night with the approach of the main
storm system. While there remains considerable spread among model
solutions early in the week, they generally agree that the bulk of
the rain potential should be east of the area by Wednesday night.

Temperatures should moderate through much of the period as highs
warm from the upper 40s to lower 50s on Sunday into the 60s by
Tuesday. Temperatures should begin to cool on Wednesday as the next
cold front swings through.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The main concern through the early morning hours is the
redevelopment of low clouds. A band of mvfr cigs recently formed
across southwest IL and the Mississippi valley before midnight.
These low clouds will tend to increase as a moist southerly wind
flow continues early this morning. The south winds are forecast to
average 10 to 20 knots in the lowest few thousand feet, which
will mitigate fog potential. However, mvfr cigs and vsbys appear
likely by sunrise at all sites. With diurnal heating, cloud bases
will again rise above vfr thresholds by noon. Conditions will
remain vfr thru the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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