Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231828
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1228 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

As the long wave Low over the Carolinas drifts eastward and out to
sea, mean heights rise over the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys
through mid week. We don`t see the clouds scouring out in
entirety, despite some BINOVC south, until the ridging heights get
in later tonight. We`ll then warm sector Tuesday night and the
GFS paints a hundredth or so light waa showers Tue night-Wed, but
otherwise modeling is dry, and we`ll keep the forecast dry unless
the collab pic changes. With warming profile, everyone should see
50s return tmrw (maybe flirting with 60 southwest), and then
holding in the 40s tmrw night with increasing cloud cover again.
Wed is one more warm day, in the 50s, with maybe some low 60s in
our south, particularly southeast. Cold fropa Wed pm means colder
temps incoming Wed night, back down into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

We`ll transition to a cooler regime in the long term. As we pick
it up Thursday, we`ll see h5 heights heading into the weekend in
the 530s DM, as opposed to 560s DM earlier in the week. That`ll
translate to seasonal temps that will shade slightly cooler than
seasonal over the coldest days of Saturday and esp Sunday (Sun
highs 30s/lows 20s). The only chance for weather appears to be
Sunday, and we`ve collaboratively blended our slight chance
mentionable pops for mainly the pm hours, when the main spoke of
energy from the Low aloft rotates across the Ohio valley. The
lower trop profile it encounters will lend toward either/or pcpn,
as temps at that time average in the mid 30s. This will match well
with our collab pic, for now. We`ll keep an eye and adjust if
necessary, if the pic changes from this writing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Dont anticipate alot of improvement to the overall MVFR CIGS
ongoing/forecast, and will extend them into/thru the night.
KCGI/KPAH may see BINOVC but will prefer to shade them more
pessimistically before midnight, with improving conditions after
midnight. KEVV/KOWB will last a little longer, improving late
tonight-early tmrw. This is when mean heights aloft best rise and
replace the departing Low, as low level winds begin to swing
around to the south again during the planning phase of the
forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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