Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 041736 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Updated the Aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Initial rains have moved east into southern KY southward across
the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, another area of rain
was associated with a mid level trof moving across the central
U.S. This feature will move ENE today, bringing another round of
rain to the area. This time, higher PoPs will be across the
northern CWFA (southern IL, southwest IN), slightly lower heading
south. Any left over rain should depart by 00z or so. Dry weather
is forecast tonight.

Our next weather system of interest is a H5 low over west central
old Mexico. This system will lift NE and end up over southern TX
by 18z Monday. Should remain dry Monday morning with high pressure
in control. For the afternoon, the NAM continues to be an outlier
model, spreading rains northward much faster. Meanwhile the
GFS/EC/CMC blend is much slower with the onset of return rains.
Will continue with a 20% NAM, 80% consensus blend of the other
models for timing. Every once in a while, the NAM catches the
faster onset when we have wide open SW flow aloft. PoPs will
increase to categorical Monday night. Added back the thunder
element given both the GFS and EC show elevated instability
sufficient for at least a mention mainly across west KY after
midnight through sunrise Tuesday. The system will be over the
region 12z Tuesday, and rapidly move NE away from our area, ending
precip Tuesday, paving the way for a dry Tuesday night.

Temps will continue to be a blend of MOS and existing blend grids,
inherited numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

We are continuing to watch the next in a what seems like a series of
systems that are impacting our area every few days. Still model
discrepancies on the strength of this next system but at least the
timing differences seem to be narrowing.

The main issue right now is how much QPF to expect and temperatures.
The GFS and Canadian continue to really diminish the potential for
any precipitation with this event. The upper trough is just weaker
and not much QPF is generated. Most of the precipitation should
occur after 00Z Thursday. The ECMWF is more robust with the upper
trough and still develops a sfc low to our south, which rockets
northeast into the southeastern corner of our CWA by 12Z Thursday.
This is very similar to yesterdays 00Z run. Again, because of this,
the cold air that will be pouring into the region at the start of
the period, gets halted as warmer air noses up into the southern
parts of the region and hence the chances for any changeover to snow
will be confined to our northern areas during Wednesday evening.
After 12Z Thursday, it will be cold enough for snow across the
entire area. However, by that time, most of the moisture will be
east of here, but a few flurries or light snow showers are possible
in the eastern sections Thursday morning. Big bust potential if the
Euro ends up being correct as far as low temps are concerned Wed
night/Thur morning and even with POPs. The latest Euro indicates up
to 0.50 inches of rain overnight Wednesday across southern parts of
KY, which is quite a bit higher than its previous run (which
indicated about 0.1 inch in that same area).

So even though the GFS/Canadian are plenty cold enough to warrant
all snow with this event, the lack of QPF with both models makes it
difficult to get too excited about anything more than a few tenths
of a inch of accumulation at best. Even with the warmer Euro, the
northern parts of the area would have the best potential to see some
light snow Wed night and even it is not impressive (ie. 0.1-0.2 inch
snow accum).

The other thing to talk about for the long term period is
temperatures. After this Wednesday/Wednesday night system pushes
through, some pretty cold air will be arriving. Highs will only be
in the upper 20s/low 30s on Thursday and Friday and only rebounding
into the 30s maybe touching 40 deg in some spots for the weekend.
Lows will be in the teens for a couple day and then rebound a bit
into the 20s over the weekend. These cold temperatures in
combination with the tight gradient in place on Thursday, will make
for some pretty nasty wind chills, especially up north.

There is a potential for another system over the weekend but models
are all over the place on timing. Will leave the small pops that the
init produced but this will be changed with time when models finally
get a beat on timing.


Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Expect MVFR/IFR vsbys and IFR cigs light rain and drizzle to
continue through early afternoon as a result of light rain and
drizzle. Conditions will begin to improve W to E in early evening
to MVFR cigs/VFR vsbys but could see gusty winds this evening. Was
optimistic with evening cigs, which may not rise above 2kft
overnight. Most models anticipate prevailing fog and LIFR
conditions from at least 09-13Z with low level moisture trapped
under high pressure and light winds. Should clear out mid morning




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