Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 052232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Issued at 529 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Friday looks much nicer area wide as the deep upper low that
created considerable clouds east of the Ms River today shifts east
to the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a ridge to build in from
the west. After chilly lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime
readings should climb rapidly into the 70s. A weak moisture
starved mid level disturbance dropping se across the region should
only serve to bring some alto stratus from time to time.

Warming trend will continue Saturday as winds turn more westerly.
Highs should pop into the lower 80s at many locations. A cold
front will be dropping south toward the I-64 corridor later in the
afternoon, but most of the higher shower/thunder chcs will be be
confined north of the boundary. This front will continue to ease a
bit farther south Saturday night, before becoming stationary
somewhere near the OH River early Sunday. Weak ripples of energy
riding over top of a negatively tilted upper ridge over the
Plains states may produce some sct shower/non-severe thunderstorm
activity over our northern counties Saturday night, but areas
along/south of the front should stay precip free.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Models continue to show a very unsettled pattern next week with a
very slow moving low pressure system headed east from the Central
Plains and a meandering front to our north.  Confidence is high that
we will have measurable rain from time to time, but confidence is
not great in pin pointing the timing of the best chances of showers
and storms through the week.

For Sunday into Sunday night, the front will bisect our region, and
most of the precipitation will be along and north of the front. This
will give us our best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and much of southern
Illinois.  For Sunday night, these same areas plus southeast
Missouri will see some showers and storms.  For Monday into Monday
night,  chances should spread across the entire PAH forecast, with
the better chances across our west counties.  Right now it looks
like our best chances through the extended will be Monday night when
models show the approach and passage of an upper level trof, and
went with likely chances for this time period.  Models indicate
better chances again Tuesday night with the surface low moving just
north of our region.

Models diverge more as we get into Wednesday night into Thursday,
with the ECMWF taking the surface low and an associated cold front
on through the area, while the GFS develops another surface low to
our southeast.  The ECMWF solution would bring a return of dry
weather by late Thursday, while the GFS solution will keep chances
of showers and storms in the area.  For now will keep shower and
thunderstorm possibilities in the chance category for both
Wednesday night and Thursday.

This pattern keeps us in south to southwesterly flow through the
period, so temperatures will be near to above normal through the
extended forecast.  Highs will generally be in the middle 70s to
lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.


Issued at 529 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Low VFR cigs may persist during the early evening, but should
scatter with loss of diurnal fuel as the evening wears on. Local
curule indicates another day like today could occur, esp for our
eastern terminals, with an MVFR sct-bkn deck slowly increasing
bases to low VFR cigs during the pm hours. Above that, time/height
cross sections show mid cigs for all terminals during the latter
part of the day/the planning period.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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