Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 290759
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Several upper level disturbances will push ENE across our region
this afternoon and tonight bringing a chance of thunderstorms.
A cold front is expected to push SE across NC late Wed and Wed
night, followed by weak high pressure Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 241 AM EDT Monday...

...Another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, especially along and SE of a line from Charlotte to
Raleigh.

The strong mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes is forecast to
finally weaken through Tuesday. However, the residual strong WSW
flow aloft will remain in place this afternoon and evening. Several
upper level disturbances, one of which may be an MCV late afternoon
and evening, will track from the Tennessee Valley ENE across our
region. This should combine with a nearly stationary surface trough
to enhance the chance of thunderstorm development later this
afternoon into the evening. Several models are suggesting that areas
from CLT to RDU to RWI (and points south and east) will have the
best chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. With
dew points expected between 65-70 and highs to reach 85-90, MLcapes
on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/KG are forecast. This strong heating
along with the boost of lift from any approaching disturbance in the
mid level 40-45 kt flow should result in scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon, some of which may grow into severe storms as they
move into the higher instability in the south and east.

The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph,
with a secondary hazard of large hail to 1 inch. Of course, frequent
CG lightning always poses a hazard. We will continue to advertise 40-
50 POP in these areas, with a lesser chance 20-30 POP in the NW
Piedmont Triad region. Convection should gradually diminish by late
evening. Lows generally in the 60s expected (60-65 north and 65-70
SE).
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

...Lower chance of showers/storms as moisture shifts toward the
coast.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: As the mid/upper trough lifts out, the
main surface boundary/trough will drift SE closer to the coast
Tuesday. This being a main focus for scattered storms, it will mean
the highest chance of showers/storms will shift toward the coast,
with limited, if any activity expected over the western areas. Some
drier air will mix down from the mid levels and weak high pressure
over the Appalachians will bring some drying in the low levels into
the Piedmont. All this suggests a low chance of showers/storms,
mainly over the Coastal Plain Tuesday afternoon/early evening, with
only isolated activity elsewhere. Partly sunny skies are expected
over the Piedmont, with a bit lower temperatures and humidities from
previous days. Dew points should fall into the upper 50s over the NW
Piedmont, but range into the upper 60s SE. Actual highs are expected
in the lower to mid 80s NW, ranging into the upper 80s SE. QPF of
0.25 or less expected, generally along and east of I-95. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 60s, except some upper 50s NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Medium range model guidance continue to advertise a weak cold
front/surface trough moving across central NC late Wednesday into
Wednesday night as the main mid level trough axis swings through the
area. This will lead to a late day/evening chance/slight chance of
seeing some showers and storms. High temps in advance of the front
should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few
locations toughing 90 across the south.

Weak high pressure will move across the area on Thursday, before a
moist southerly return flow develops on Friday. Mid/upper level flow
will amplify again across the Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., helping
to drive a cold front south and eastward into the area late Saturday
into Sunday. This will result in above normal chances for precip and
a decrease in high temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 122 AM EDT Monday...

24-HR TAF Period: VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm at any TAF site,
mainly between 20Z/today and 03Z/Tuesday. Any shower or storm would
mostly likely impact the TAF site for 45 minutes or less and bring
MVFR CIGS and IFR to MVFR VSBYS during that brief time.

Looking ahead: Aside from a potential for an isolated thunderstorm
during the afternoon/evening hours each day, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through mid-week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD/CBL
AVIATION...Badgett



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