Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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922
FXUS62 KRAH 232335
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northeast states will
extend south into our region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

A weak broad upper trough over the SE US will drift west today and
tonight with central NC becoming under the increasing influence of
the stacked anticyclone expanding eastward into the Mid-Atlantic
Region. This will allow for dry conditions and a nearly cloud free
sky, aside from some very thin patchy cirrus clouds.

Some patchy fog will again be possible with overnight lows generally
in the lower to mid 60s, with even a few upper 50s in the cold rural
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Stacked ridging and associated subsidence will support a dry and
stable air mass with a continuation of above-normal temperatures
across central NC. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will track north
through the open waters of the Western Atlantic. As pressure
gradient begins to tighten up ever so slightly, a steady 5  to 10
mph northerly breeze will make it very pleasant, despite the warm
temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Expect gradual overspreading high cloudiness well ahead of hurricane
Maria as early as Monday night. The official track has been
gradually nudged west, and the latest forecast would still keep
Maria far enough offshore to preclude significant impacts aside from
gustiness from 20 to 25 mph in the Coastal Plain Tuesday and
Wednesday. Will introduce a slight chance of showers in the coastal
plain as well on Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the potential
of banded convection wrapping into the area. Highs will continue to
reach the mid and upper 80s through Thursday after morning lows in
the mid and upper 60s.

A long wave trof amplifying down the Ohio Valley will drive Maria
offshore late week, and we will have a welcome airmass change as an
initial surge of dry cooler air drives east on Friday. Highs Friday
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling further as the trof
continues to amplify, with highs next weekend solidly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 730 PM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
with an outside chance of some MVFR fog overnight but confidence
very low after looking at very dry forecast soundings. Some wind
gusts of 15-20 kts are possible on Sunday afternoon at eastern
terminals. Otherwise expect 5-10 kts sustained out of the northeast.

Outlook: VFR conditions through mid-week may be in jeopardy if the
track of Hurricane Maria begins to shift closer to the coast.
Therefore expect the possibility of some showers and breezy
conditions in the east by late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Ellis



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