Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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602
FXUS61 KRNK 282343
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
743 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over or near the
region for the next several days. Disturbances moving along this
boundary will allow for periodic rounds of showers and storms. Hot
and humid conditions will continue into at least early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 655 PM EDT Thursday...

Best thunderstorm activity currently is heading east of Lynchburg.
Showers and storms will continue across the area through this
evening. The activity will be focused near two upper air
disturbances. The one is progressing through northern Virginia, so
activity in the northeast part of the area should start to wane as
the disturbance continues heading eastward. The other is
approaching the region through northeast Tennessee so we should
see coverage increase again across the southwest part of the are
later this evening.

As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...

Around 100 PM EDT, the first of now a small collections of showers
began to form. Currently, activity across our region was primarily
located between Radford, VA and West Jefferson, NC.  Some isolated
thunderstorms were in this mix as well.  Other isolated activity was
between Union and Rainelle, WV, and also Rustburg and Buckingham,
VA. A greater concentration of showers and storms was extending from
eastern Kentucky north into central West Virginia. It is this
convection that is expected to enter the western portion of our area
between roughly 400PM and 500PM and become the dominate weather
producer across the forecast region this evening. It is expected to
make progression eastward, impacting at least the central and
northern thirds of the area. Concurrently, additional isolated to
scattered coverage is expected in advance of it with the least
coverage across the far southeastern part of the area.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm watch
for much of our region, including all of our West Virginia counties
and all but Halifax and Charlotte Counties in Virginia. None of our
North Carolina Counties are in the watch area. The greatest threat
will be damaging winds.  The watch expires at 1000 PM EDT.

A Flash Flood Watch will go into affect at 400 PM EDT today, and
continue through 800 AM EDT Friday for our West Virginia counties
and Tazewell County Virginia.  Portions of this region will be
susceptible to flash flooding where multiple heavy rain producing
storms traverse over the same area in a short period of time. While
most of the heaviest rain is expected to conclude by midnight, the
watch will last through 800 AM Friday to account for any lingering
heavy showers or storms that last into early Friday morning.

Overnight, anticipate winds to increase from the west after
midnight. These winds and lingering low level moisture will yield
upslope low level cloud cover across the mountains with some carry
over into the east.

On Friday, much of the region will see a break in the precipitation
activity through the morning hours. We cannot rule out isolated
showers or storms across the west. By the afternoon, our next
approaching disturbance, along with daytime heating, will help
prompt additional shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage is
not expected to be as great as that anticipated this evening. The
best coverage will be in the west.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper
60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the
Piedmont. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be just slightly lower than
those realized today. Readings around 80 to the mid 80s are forecast
for the mountains with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Frontal boundary will stay just north of us Friday night with spoke
of upper energy moving east Friday evening. Timing of impulses is
problematic but seems next best wave works toward the PA/OH border
Saturday afternoon which may slowly nudge front southward. Appears
best threat of showers and storms will be focused from far Southwest
Virginia into SE WV and north of Highway 460 across Roanoke and
Lynchburg north Saturday afternoon with widely scattered further
south. Nonetheless kept pops no higher than 50.

Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows
from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Saturday should be
at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west
to around 90 east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1150 AM EDT Thursday...

Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Sunday night into
Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the
upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as
ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but
convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the
upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective
clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our
area.

Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all
periods but looks like Sunday-Monday have the better chance for
measurable rainfall.

May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity
levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected
thru Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail across most of the area. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are across the region. One cluster is
associated with a shortwave trough moving through northern
Virginia. Others were entering the region in association with a
shortwave trough moving northeast through Tennessee. This feature
will reach the western parts of the area towards midnight.

Overnight, look for cloud cover to increase across the area with
most locations in the MVFR range with areas of IFR in across the
mountains. Showers and storms will continue, especially in
western and northern parts of the area. Visibilities will be a mix
of MVFR and low end VFR with pockets of IFR under the heavier
cells.

Much of the activity will wane by sunrise Friday, with lingering
showers in the west. MVFR ceiling and visibilities will last a few
hours after sunrise. By Friday afternoon, all areas are expected
to have VFR ceilings. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible across mainly western portions of the area.

Extended aviation discussion...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and
storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary
frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the
precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Within the heavier showers and storms, and
during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record warm minimum temperatures for July 28

Bluefield WV.....69 in 2010
Danville VA......76 in 1997
Lynchburg VA.....77 in 1930
Roanoke VA.......80 in 1930
Blacksburg VA....68 in 1987

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ007.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...PM



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