Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 261859
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
259 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance was located over the Great Lakes and
was heading southeast. Other than some isolated to scattered showers
and storms in association with this feature on Tuesday, high
pressure will provide for dry and cool weather for much of this
week. The chance for more abundant showers and storms, as well as
increasing temperatures, return Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Daytime cumulus clouds should give way to mostly clear to clear
skies this evening. However, the approach of an upper level
disturbance will start to bring a return of cloud cover to the
area after midnight tonight, and conditions will remain mostly
cloudy to cloudy through the day on Tuesday.

Isolated showers may reach the far western sections of the area by
late tonight, but chances will increase during the day Tuesday. The
best potential for showers and storms will extend from roughly
Lewisburg, WV to Bluefield, WV to Marion, VA to Boone, NC. East of
this region, precipitation in the form of isolated showers will be
more likely, east to roughly a Lynchburg, VA to Reidsville, NC line
during the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side for this time of
year. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s
across the mountains and the mid to upper 50s across the Piedmont.
High temperatures on Tuesday will range from around 70 to the lower
70s across the mountains to the mid to upper 70s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

At 00z Wednesday (8 pm EDT Tuesday)...the axis of an upper level
trof will be exiting our forecast area and any lingering mountain
showers will have ended. With a large area of high pressure settling
over the region...morning lows Wednesday will be well below normal
and went a few degrees below guidance. The COOP MOS guidance is
forecasting lows in the upper 30s at Burkes Garden.

High pressure continues to influence our weather on Wednesday. With
limited mixing...leaned toward the cooler guidance for highs which
should range form the lower 70s in the mountains of NW NC to the
lower 80s in the NC/VA Piedmonts.

The transition to higher humidity levels and warmer temperatures
begins Wednesday night into Thursday as higher low level theta-e air
lifts north into the region as a deepening west/southwest flow
arrives. Most the area will remain dry on Thursday, but a few
showers cannot be ruled out in the southern Blue Ridge of NW NC and
far southwest VA on the nose of a low level theta-e ridge,
increasing PWATs and differiental mountain heating. With
downsloping winds, pushed high temps Thursday up a degree or two
from the previous forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

A return to weather conditions more typical for summer are expected
during the long term period, as the long range models show good
agreement transitioning from an upper level zonal flow early in the
period to an upper trof forming somewhere around the Great Lakes and
extending south into the eastern U.S. by late in the weekend into
Monday.

This will result in increasing temperatures and humidity, as well as
an increase in storm chances. An upper level disturbance moving out
of the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern VA on Friday/Friday night
will help lead a surge in higher PWAT air our area. This higher
moisture combined with a series of upper level disturbances...with
the usual differences in timing shown in the long range
models...will help generate scattered showers and storms each day
during the long term period, especially during the peak heating in
the afternoon and early evening hours. With increasing CAPES, but
low shear through the period,a few pulse severe storms and locally
heavy rain are possible.

Warmest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as 850mb
forecast temps approach +20C. This may generate heat index values in
the low to mid 90s in the east.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Monday...

Confidence is high in anticipating VFR conditions for the extent
of the 18Z/2PM TAF forecast thanks to high pressure across the
region.

Likewise, the wind forecast also has high confidence of
a general west to northwest flow across the area with most
sustained winds just shy of 10kts across the mountains this
afternoon with some gusts approaching 20kts. Across the
piedmont, light west to northwest or calm winds are forecast.
Overnight most area will experience calm or light and variable
winds. Tomorrow morning, the winds will remain light and
variable or calm across the Piedmont with west to northwest
winds increasing to just shy of 10kts by mid-day across the
mountains.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Weak disturbance crosses the area Tuesday afternoon with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly
the mountains. VFR conditions expected outside any heavier
showers or storms. Isolated IFR/MVFR fog late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning in areas that received rain during
the day Tuesday.

High pressure will keep the bulk of the area VFR through
Thursday.

Friday into Saturday, the potential for sub-VFR conditions
increase as showers and storms become more numerous. Likewise,
an increase in the boundary layer moisture will also lend itself
to better chances of late night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS


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