Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 202344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
744 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading
into and through the weekend. A potent cold front will approach and
cross the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a return of showers
and gusty winds to the region. Drier weather returns to the area by
the middle to end of next week.


As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will remain in control of our weather as it
gradually slides off the mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. Expect
bulk of upstream cirrus to arrive in the west late tonight
after good radiational cooling, allowing for more in the way of
valley fog to develop toward daybreak. Lows will be similar to
last night with readings generally in the 40s, cooler in the
valleys. Saturday will feature sunshine through high clouds as
temperatures remain well above normal. Highs tomorrow will reach
the mid/upper 70s east of the Ridge, low/mid 70s west.


As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Expect mild and dry weather Sat night into Sunday with some increase
in clouds Sunday afternoon as upper trough shifts toward the MS
Valley with upper low closing off over Arkansas. Models vary some on
timing but overall seem reasonable that showers will start to spread
into the NC mountains/VA Blue Ridge after Sunday dusk, and stay
around this area maybe nosing as far northeast as Floyd to Mt. Airy


As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

A deep trough will evolve across the eastern U.S. Monday-Wednesday
with enough agreement in models showing better lift and precip
coverage Monday night into Tuesday. Some instability with the upper
trough may allow some low topped thunderstorms to form Tuesday, but
overall looking at moderate to at times heavier showers as front
moves Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the upper trough will begin to shift east of the
region, but keep cold advection and upslope across the region.
This will result in some continued threat for showers across mainly
the Alleghanys southward into the western mountains of NC. Possibly
early in the morning, low-level temperatures and thickness values
will support a mix of rain/snow in the higher terrain, but nothing
supports any accumulation or much QPF at this time.

With regard to the remainder of the period, all of the extended
models have trended much more progressive with the upper trough,
lifting it out of here as quickly as Thursday as another fast moving
trough moves across the northern U.S. West to southwest flow aloft
will return to the area and allow temperatures to begin to moderate
by the end of the week.

Temperatures Tuesday will be at or just below normal due to
extensive area of showers. Wednesday will be a rather chilly raw
day, especially across the mountains where rain/snow showers and
gusty northwest winds are expected as the upper trough reaches its
deepest point. Thursday-Friday will see an end to the precipitation
and a moderation in temperatures as the upper trough quickly lifts
out of the region.


As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will remain in control of our weather as it
gradually slides off the mid Atlantic coast this Saturday and
Saturday night. This will continue to bring VFR flight
conditions and light winds to TAF sites, with the exception of
IFR conditions in nocturnal fog/stratus developing in the
river valleys. Expect IFR to LIFR to extend into KBCB and KLWB
for a period just before sunrise. High confidence of occurrence
but medium confidence on timing.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with
generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late
night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog.

A deep upper trough and associated strong cold front will move
into the region from the west by Monday with sub-VFR conditions
in rain/showers along with increasing wind. Colder, blustery,
unsettled weather with perhaps largely MVFR conditions across
the mountains will linger through the later half of next week.




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