Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 240504
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
903 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SANTA ANA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE BY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME PRECIPITATION TO START
OFF THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PICTURESQUE
CIRRUS CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
THERE WERE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS THOUGH. PARTICULARLY IN AND
DOWNWIND OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE CAJON PASS...AND
ALONG THE WIND-PRONE FOOTHILL AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WERE RECORDED. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WERE NEARLY NEUTRAL NOW TO THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT AROUND 6 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT
IN THE 2K-5K FT LAYER. NO MARINE CLOUDS WERE DETECTABLE OVER SOCAL
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DRIFT
SE.

GET READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF VERY DRY WEATHER. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN TODAY ALONG FOOTHILL
AREAS. THOSE EASTERLY WINDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING IN OFFSHORE WIND PRONE FOOTHILL AND
VALLEY AREAS. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURFACE IN FOOTHILL AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. FARTHER
NORTH...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
WED...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THAT WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO TURN BACK
ONSHORE. BY FRI AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE BACK TO PARCHED COASTAL AREAS AND THAT WILL SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK AND THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM TERM.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH ARRIVING ALONG THE CA COAST. IF CONTINUITY IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS
MATERIALIZES...LOOK FOR POPS TO BE INTRODUCED AROUND MON OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
240500Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH WOULD BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT IN
THOSE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS STRONG OCCURRING OVER THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MON THROUGH WED FOR THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL
FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL DECREASE TEMPORARILY TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MON. THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH TO ELEVATE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AND THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL RH
RECOVERY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT
     COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









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