Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 280321
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
821 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and hot weather will continue Thursday. An increase in
monsoon moisture this weekend will increase the chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts each afternoon. It
will be slightly cooler this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Some monsoon moisture drifted into our region from the south and
brought us some clouds and even a few showers. The showers dropped
nearly a tenth inch in a couple gauges around Big Bear Lake. Other
showers were observed on radar in the remote desert south of
Barstow, but didn`t hit any rain gauges. Meanwhile, for most of
us it was a hot day with some interesting clouds to watch. Several
cities in the Inland Empire exceeded 100 degrees while Palm
Springs was the hot spot with an impressive 117. High pressure
aloft is peaking over the Great Basin today and Thursday, so temps
Thursday will be very close to those of today. The monsoon
moisture appears to be slightly less, so expect another hot day
with some high clouds and cumulus clouds over the mountains and
deserts. On Friday the high pressure begins to slowly weaken. The
weekend will not be quite as hot, but I won`t say it will be
cool; it`s late July. A greater tap of monsoon moisture this
weekend will bring an accordingly greater chance of showers and
thunderstorms. These will come primarily in the mountains, but
also some in the deserts, and mostly during the afternoons. The
coastal clouds won`t go away completely, but they are almost a
non-player on our weather stage for a while. Guidance shows a
trough of low pressure to the north pushing south during the
latter half of next week. That of course will bring cooler weather
and a greater marine presence. Eventually it appears the monsoon
moisture would be shunted eastward with this trough, but as usual
confidence is lower in the guidance for the period that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
280300Z...Patchy stratus forming along the coast after 09Z with
bases 900-1300 ft MSL. The only TAF sites that may be impacted are
KSAN and KCRQ, but confidence is low that any impacts will last for
2 or more hours in a row. Expect clearing by 16Z.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Scattered clouds above 15000 feet
tonight. Cumulus clouds will form over the mountain crests Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...Moede



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