Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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561
FXUS65 KTWC 201015
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
314 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through next Saturday
except for a few snow showers near the White Mountains Thursday. A
strong warming trend will also occur through Wednesday before cooler
temperatures return late this week. The next system will then bring
a slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the
region in the wake of the weekend storm system. The extensive cloud
cover this morning will gradually clear today, with highs rebounding
about 8 to 10 degrees from readings yesterday. The ridge of high
pressure will strengthen through Tuesday with highs peaking on
Wednesday. Models showed this ridge breaking down and shifting
eastward late Wednesday as the tail end of a system tracking through
the central Rockies brushes the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A
few showers will be possible in the White Mountains, with just a
cooling trend most areas for Thursday. Thereafter, models continued
to show another storm system impacting the region late this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/12Z.
Isolated valley -SHRA/mountain -SHSN ending from west to east by
late morning. Otherwise, BKN-OVC cloud decks at 4k-8k ft AGL with
occasional MVFR ceilings/visibilities thru 20/18Z, then decreasing
clouds this afternoon. FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-10k ft AGL lingering
thru 21/04Z, with clearing skies thereafter. Surface wind variable
in direction less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will come to an end from west to
east this morning, with dry and warmer weather returning through
Wednesday. A series of storm systems passing to our north will
result in breezy conditions late Wednesday and Thursday, as well as
over the upcoming weekend. Cooler temperatures will also be on tap
Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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