Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KTWC 221601
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
901 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures still remain on the chilly side
tonight with another cold night tonight. Otherwise, dry
conditions with a warming trend most of the week. A weather system
passing north of the area will then bring cooler air and gusty
winds late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Freeze Warning worked out pretty much as
advertised with a low of 30 degrees in Tucson. Very cold conditions
for eastern areas with Douglas getting down to 15 degrees which is
a record low and the coldest of the winter. Latest IR satellite
imagery shows considerable cirroform cloudiness streaming from west
to east across the forecast area which will result in mostly cloudy
conditions with some filtered sunshine today. Looking at the 12Z
KTWC sounding, there has been quite a bit of warming in the past 24
hours mainly above 800mb but the boundary layer remains cool and
will still struggle to warm today so highs will remain about 5
degrees below normal. Another cold night tonight with skies
clearing and lows once again near freezing in the deserts.

Warming conditions Tuesday through Thursday as ridging nudges in
from the north and west. Another trough will slide to our north
across the Great Basin into the Central Rockies Thursday into
Friday. This may result in a few breezes for us but the biggest
sensible weather impact will be about a 10 degree temperature drop
on Friday to seasonable levels. Remaining dry and turning warmer
again this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/18Z.
SCT-BKN cirrus mainly above 20k ft AGL into this evening. Clouds
will decrease from west to east early Tuesday morning. Surface wind
ELY/NELY at less than 12 kts through the period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail over the next
week. Light, easterly 20-ft winds occur through mid-week, though
speeds should increase to around 15 mph Wednesday afternoon.
Elevated westerly to southwesterly winds may return late in the work
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Based on temperatures to date and the 7 day forecast,
it looks like Tucson is headed for top 5 warmest January on
record. This would be the fourth straight month with top 5 warmest
status. When will it end?!

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.