Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 301011
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION / LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS IN
THE FLOW OVER THE WEST WILL SEE ANOTHER IMPULSE (CURRENTLY CARVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE) BOTTOM OUT THROUGH ARIZONA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH THE BEST WINDS PROBABLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AREAS OF
DUST...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-10 EAST OF TUCSON IN COCHISE COUNTY.

THIS IMPULSE IS FOLLOWING A RATHER DRY TRAJECTORY FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA...BUT AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON SHOULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WE`LL PROBABLY BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR
ANY SHOWERS AROUND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD AGAIN EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVEN AS THE WARMING TREND
KICKS IN. WE`LL DRY OUT AND JUMP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM LINING UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A
WETTER TRAJECTORY AND MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT AS IT LOSES MOST IF NOT
ALL OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT. MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FIELDS FOR OUR AREA (AS THEY OFTEN DO WITH
SIMILAR SYSTEMS). THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS WELL
AS GOOD ENSEMBLE MEAN / OPERATIONAL TRENDS AND NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATION TRENDS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE ARE LEANING A LITTLE FURTHER
FORWARD WITH POP TRENDS AT DAY 7 THAN WE MIGHT OTHERWISE. EMPHASIS
ON NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
SKC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF KTUS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. TERRAIN DRIVEN SFC
WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND WILL BE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...INCLUDING THE KDUG/KOLS/KALK/KFHU TERMINALS.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 20 FT
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH FAIRLY COMMON. AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A BIT STRONGER AT TIMES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 12 TO 17 PCT ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF
TUCSON. NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THE CURRENT TIME...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.


&&

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

MEYER/FRENCH

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