Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 291613
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE OUR WEATHER TODAY
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE NEAR OUR LATITUDE IS BRINGING
IN PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE (RELATIVELY DENSE AT TIMES),
OTHERWISE WE`RE PRETTY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4
OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 15K FT AGL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MON MORNING...AS WELL AS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SE
OF KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD
OCCUR THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATE
NORMALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE AZ WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 27N/127W EARLY
THIS MORNING. CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THRU TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAINLY
ABOVE 700 MB WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE BAJA SPUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON MORNING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN
COCHISE COUNTY.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA MIDDAY MON WILL
MOVE EWD INTO SE AZ MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES LATE MON
NIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WED-SAT UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
THUR AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE 29/00Z GFS PRODUCED RAIN AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SAT AFTERNOON. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENCROACHING UPON
FAR ERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION AND HAVE
FAVORED THE DRY ECMWF THAT DEPICTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE MUCH
FURTHER EAST ADJACENT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT...
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPS AGAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A VERY
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR MON-THUR FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SAT. HIGH TEMPS MON-TUE
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGS BELOW RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/FRANCIS






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