Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 282051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
151 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN SHORT TERM AS SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL IN FACT ENHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO REDIRECT THE MOISTURE FETCH
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
STILL...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER INCREASE TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS SUPPRESSED SOME WHAT. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL FALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...WITH DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 13 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER READINGS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...85

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