Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 012057
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
157 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DATE CONFIRMS A MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE SHALLOW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY EARLY
THURSDAY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLING OVER ARIZONA. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WHILE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
SONORA STATE. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BY MID WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU THURSDAY.  WLY SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFT 02/01Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE
FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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