Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 182109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST
METARS AROUND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE SINCE IMPROVED.

RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY
EAST. SOME SUN IS TRYING TO PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND
SANTA CRUZ. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER THROUGH 430 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA
CRUZ RIVER FOR PIMA COUNTY. THE WATER LEVELS WILL BE BELOW BANKFULL
AS IT FLOWS THROUGH PIMA COUNTY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
2 AM MST FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SAN
PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON THROUGH 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS CONTINUED
ROAD FLOODING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES FOR
MAINLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL
RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THIS EVENING AND EVEN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NOT AN ISSUE BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESSER CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






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