Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210325
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRYING AS A STRONG WARMING TREND PUSHES TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY LOSING OUR CU FIELD THIS EVENING AS THE MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ENDS QUICKLY. DRYING OUT AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. 24 HOUR TRENDS ON SURFACE DEWPTS ARE DOWN
8-12 DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL ABOVE 1/2 INCH BUT LOWER
LEVEL TRENDS WILL START TO TRANSLATE INTO THE MID LEVELS AS WE SEE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING RETURNS FROM THE RECIRCULATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS AFTERNOON HIGHS JUMP BACK
TO AROUND 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

AFTER THE RAPID WARMUP, OUR WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE WEEK ARE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS.
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO
CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. BY LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT
5 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
THEREAFTER...WESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. PREFER A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
WOULD BE MORE OF A WIND MAKER THAN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS FAR
SOUTH. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME GIVEN WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 6 AND 7 TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/05Z. CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE SLOWLY DRY
BACK OUT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS EXCEPT
GUSTY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. A FEW BUILDUPS IN EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF
SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY IN EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON...WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

A STRONGER TROF IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGER AREA POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





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