Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270948
LAZ000-TXZ000-271145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270948Z - 271145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND WRN LA
ALONG A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX
HAS MOVED SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 20-25 KTS AND MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PLENTIFUL...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ATOP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-7.5 DEG C/KM PER LATEST
RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 00Z SOUNDING FROM LCH...MLCAPE OF 1500-3000
J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND
30-40 KT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
MARGINAL STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE
ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. REGARDLESS...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED/MARGINAL THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...AND WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE IN AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...SEE WPC
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 138.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30069642 30289649 30699513 30919471 31539412 32149362
            32179230 30899243 29879329 29299482 29029641 30069642



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