Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 122309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122308
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND EASTERN MD TO DE/SOUTHERN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...

VALID 122308Z - 130045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z /10PM
EDT/. AS A LINE OF CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT/NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN VA/MD...ALONG WITH DE/SOUTHERN NJ.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NC/VA/MD INTO DE/SOUTHERN NJ...WITH PARTICULARLY
WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP ORGANIZATION
AND CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT/FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AS OF 2300Z. A 53 KT WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
GREENSBORO NC EARLIER /AROUND 2121Z/ WITH THIS CONVECTION.

CONVECTIVE LINE-PRECEDING INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT NEAR THE STEADILY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ AND THE STRONG
PRIMARY PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET. REGARDLESS...60S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE
FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK...EVEN IN THE RELATIVE ABSENCE OF
CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH AS MUCH AS 40-50 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA.

..GUYER.. 03/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35597963 36467853 37547754 38957695 39597646 39457497
            38757494 37497597 36087637 35177831 35597963
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