Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270305
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and northeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...

Valid 270305Z - 270430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
continues.

SUMMARY...Marginal severe hail and gusts surface winds may continue
with an organized cluster of storms overspreading the region through
04-06Z.  An additional watch east of watch 85 is not currently
anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing vigorous convective system continues to spread
eastward at around 30 kt.  Activity appears rooted within a moist
layer above a warm/quasi-stationary frontal inversion, which
guidance suggests is characterized by weak CAPE on the order of 500
J/kg.  However, it is being support by strong forcing for upward
vertical just ahead of a compact mid-level closed low, within a zone
of enhanced low-level warm advection.

As convection progresses away from the nose of the more strongly
heated and deeply mixed boundary layer across the higher plains
(which also continues to cool with loss of heating and cold frontal
passage), low-level warm advection seems likely to weaken and
convection may follow suit.  Until then, though, the risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty surface winds may continue with the
progressive convective system another couple of hours, supported by
rather strong vertical shear within the frontal zone.

..Kerr.. 03/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37919613 38089530 37929452 37379430 36899486 36749554
            36619663 36719687 37069618 37919613



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