


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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073 ACUS11 KWNS 182309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182309 NCZ000-VAZ000-190045- Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA into northeast NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182309Z - 190045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind remains possible early this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across southeast VA into northeast NC. The environment across the region remains modestly favorable for organized convection, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and veering wind profiles resulting in effective shear of 20-30 kt. However, storm intensity and longevity have been somewhat limited thus far, potentially due to weak low-level flow and poor midlevel lapse rates. A storm cluster moving across south-central/southeast VA has gradually become better organized early this evening, and may remain capable of producing at least isolated wind damage as it moves eastward. Additional discrete cells developing ahead of this cluster have also intensified somewhat, and may merge into the larger cluster with time. These discrete cells may exhibit transient supercell characteristics in the presence of multiple surface boundaries, and be capable of producing localized wind damage and perhaps some hail. Other storm clusters are ongoing across parts of central into northeast NC. Deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker with southward extent, but these clusters will remain capable of producing localized wind damage before weakening later this evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35147732 35537917 37397851 37517708 37377632 36587588 35807562 35207721 35147732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN