023
ACUS11 KWNS 152250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152249
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Nebraska and
southeastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

Valid 152249Z - 160045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail may
be accompanied by increasing downbursts during the next few couple
of hours, before gradually organizing and advancing southeastward
with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts through 7-9 PM
CDT.

DISCUSSION...Still generally focused along the pre-frontal surface
trough, as it is gradually overtaken by the southward advancing cold
front, thunderstorm development continues to increase and intensify.
 This appears to be occurring beneath the 500 mb cold core (-8 to
-10C) of weak mid-level troughing advancing eastward across South
Dakota and Nebraska, where southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is a
rather modest 10-20 kt.  Veering of wind fields with height is
contributing to modest shear, however, supportive of widely
scattered supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail.

Although it will be several more hours before a nocturnally
strengthening southerly low-level jet may become an influence across
parts of central Nebraska, ongoing storms may pose an increasing
risk for downbursts over the next few hours, before outflow begins
to conglomerate and the more intense convection becomes focused
along the leading edge of southeastward outflow surges through
00-02Z.

..Kerr.. 07/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   42300048 42859919 43399847 43729715 42899643 42109680
            40869901 40090103 41520203 42300048