Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012209
SDZ000-NDZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND AND PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012209Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
AS OF 22Z FROM PARTS OF S-CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. REFLECTIVITY
DATA FROM RAPID CITY INDICATE A CONCENTRIC RING OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW RADIATING OUTWARD FROM THE RAPID CITY VICINITY WHICH SHOULD
SERVE TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.

THE MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH APPEARS TO BE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
FAR SWRN ZIEBACH SWD THROUGH HAAKON AND JACKSON COUNTIES EWD TO
AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...THE SETUP MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/BROYLES.. 08/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43420163 44620222 45110213 45690178 46330134 46480074
            46179980 45199910 44589893 43789941 43270004 43100084
            43420163
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