Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 180947
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
347 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Areas of dense fog will continue through the morning from portions
of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma into central and
north-central Oklahoma. Dense fog over southeast portions of
Oklahoma appear unlikely given the established stratus and near
neutral moisture advection. A few locations across western and
far northern Oklahoma will see dense fog briefly with temperatures
at or just below freezing. However, this is expected to be short
lived with slight moisture advection and radiative effects of
advancing stratus warming temperatures back above freezing. This
will be monitored closely but has been an effective mechanism so
far this morning. We will include mention of fog for tonight and
Tuesday morning as well given continued southerly flow and an
increase in low level moisture tonight.

PoPs for tonight through Tuesday night were kept intact with
greatest chances for appreciable rainfall amounts confined to
southeast parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts will likely be more
than what we saw a few days ago. Low PoPs will also be maintained
with cold front Thursday night into Friday across southeast parts
of Oklahoma. ECM and GFS are pretty close on frontal timing which
is much later than we saw a few days ago. Going to be warmer on
Thursday and breezy, but low enough RH values to raise fire
weather concerns appears to be a small part of western/northwest
Oklahoma.

Although the airmass coming in Thursday might and early Friday
will cool things off, more in the way of arctic air will arrive
Saturday, with the potential for much, much colder air next week.
As far as wintry precipitation chances, those will remain
unchanged from previous forecast with a fair amount of disparity
between the medium range guidance. Any snow amounts over the
weekend will likely remain very light with minimal impacts
currently expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  45  57  42 /   0  10  20  40
Hobart OK         57  41  59  37 /   0  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  58  47  59  40 /   0  10  50  60
Gage OK           63  37  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     57  41  57  39 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         57  49  57  47 /  10  20  80  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-
     012-013-016>020-022>030-034>041-044>046-050.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

04/11



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