Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190813
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An elevated frontal boundary will help to produce some widespread
snow across the region today with most areas receiving a coating to
an inch or two of non impactful snow. Lake enhancement could lend to
somewhat higher amounts east of both lakes. While the snow showers
will taper off tonight...a frontal passage Wednesday morning will
lead the charge of reinforcing cold air. This will promote at least
scattered snow showers throughout the day while setting the stage
for pure lake effect snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A sub 1000mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will
slowly drift east during the course of today. In the process...an
elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along
with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with
the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread
snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of
the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing
and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps `warming` to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.

Snowfall amounts today will generally range from one to two
inches...although higher amounts of up to four inches will be found
near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant
(an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region. Otherwise...today
will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support
widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.

While a deep cyclonic flow of chilly air will maintain a wealth of
clouds over the region tonight...enough weak warm advection should
have taken place with the aforementioned elevated warm front to
preclude pure lake effect east/northeast of the lakes. There will be
some lake and orographically enhanced areas of light snow though
that could accumulate as much as three inches in the vcnty of the
Tug Hill. Temperatures tonight will settle to within a few degrees
of 30.

On Wednesday...a 120kt H25 jet will accompany a robust shortwave
that will drive the next cold front through our forecast area. This
will easily support scattered to likely pops for snow showers
throughout the region with orographics pushing the pops to
categorical levels in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Fresh daytime snow
accumulations will generally range from an inch or two...but amounts
should reach three inches or so for the higher terrain of the Srn
Tier and east of Lk Ontario. While relatively warm sfc`s should aid
in limiting the impact of the snow on area roadways...there could be
a burst of snow with the front that would quickly lead to a slushy
coating.

Speaking of which...a 40kt LLJ and a 10kft deep layer of very steep
lapse (9-10 deg c/km) rates that will accompany the front could set
the stage for a squall line of heavy snow during the frontal passage
between mid morning and early afternoon. This set up will also
promote a windy afternoon throughout the region...especially over
the western counties where winds could gust to 40 mph. If you will
be traveling during the aforementioned window...be wary of a 15
minute burst of snow that will not only SIGNIFICANTLY reduce the
visibility but could also lead to a glaze of ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this
period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal
effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through
the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and
cellular.

Stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow
parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting
synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could
see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches
east of Lake Ontario.

The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow
southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon
hours.

It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts
to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some
limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.

Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on
Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime
temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this
period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible
phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a
developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop
over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing
this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger
Lakes eastward is possible.

Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into
Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another
storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may
bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during
the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier
lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites
such as KJHW.

After daybreak...an elevated frontal boundary will support
deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce
vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to
include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.

The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early this
evening...while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception
will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR
cigs should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR
conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated
brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight sfc pressure gradient between relatively deep low pressure
to our north and high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi
valley will support widespread small craft advisories throughout the
region today. This includes the Upper IAG River and Buffalo
Harbor with a freshly issued SCA in this package.

While winds will drop off a bit tonight...moderate to fresh breezes
will keep conditions choppy enough to warrant extending many of the
SCAs through the night up to when a widespread gale watch will go
into effect Wednesday afternoon.

The gale watch for Wednesday is a result of a 40kt low level jet
that will accompany the passage of...and persist for several hours
afterward...a strong cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045.
         Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
         night for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH


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