207
FXUS64 KCRP 100825
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
325 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 Cold front to move across the region today
 Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday

A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this
morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast
this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our
southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of
the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier
conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today
climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT`s from the latest sounding
are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP`s in
the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s
accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a
low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances
for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region.
Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday

 Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat
related impacts daily.

The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the
region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ
ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the
Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while
sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject
out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive
convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to
moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday
and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria
Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We
begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the
west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears
the region.

By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well
underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along
the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce
back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate
heat risk for much of South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The transition from VFR to predominate MVFR will continue tonight.
Continue to expect IFR/LIFR conditions near the VCT/ALI terminals
approximately during the 09-13z Friday period. Expect predominate
MVFR conditions during the mid/late morning hours Friday,
followed by predominate VFR by afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop near the COT/LRD terminals late Friday
afternoon/early evening. Wind becoming light/variable overnight.
Continue to expect a transition, from north to south, to moderate
northeast/east flow Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow toward
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in
response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist
through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is
a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume
Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a
20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.
Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances
return by mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Weak onshore flow will continue through this evening, then shift
northeasterly Friday morning as a weak cold front approaches the
waters. East-northeasterly flow strengthens to moderate Friday
afternoon and continues into Friday night. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary.
Moderate flow will shift back southeasterly by Sunday, becoming
weak to moderate by Monday morning. A low chance of showers and
storms on Saturday increases to a low to medium chance Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  75  85  75 /   0   0  10  20
Victoria          90  70  86  72 /  10  10  10  20
Laredo            97  75  90  76 /  10  20  20  30
Alice             93  73  86  74 /  10  10  20  20
Rockport          89  75  85  76 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           92  75  87  75 /  10  10  20  30
Kingsville        91  74  85  75 /  10  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       88  78  85  77 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...WC