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000
FXUS64 KMEG 281148 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
648 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A wet and unsettled period for the Mid-South will begin today as
showers and thunderstorms return late this evening. Temperatures
on Monday will be slightly cooler thanks to increased cloud cover
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. However, daily rain chances
and temperatures in the 80s will return by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The upper level low responsible for Saturday`s severe weather
outbreak in the Plains will push northeast today, ejecting an
attendant cold front into western Arkansas. While this boundary
appears to washout before reaching the Mid-South, the pressure
gradient will tighten later this morning. The WSUP Viewer paints
most of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel in a 50-70%
chance of exceeding Wind Advisory criteria through this afternoon.
As such, a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 8AM to 7PM.

A limited severe weather threat may materialize for a few hours
tonight as a line of showers and thunderstorms pushes into
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Forecast soundings
at this time depict bulk shear around 40 kts with mid level lapse
rates of 6.5 C/km. Upscale growth of storms will be limited by 2
factors: the first being instability as both GEFS and ECMWF
ensembles paint only a 30% chance of > 500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The
second limiting factor will be the potential for a capping
inversion to develop after sunset. If a severe storm does
materialize, the main concern will be damaging winds. A Slight and
Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place through Monday
morning for areas along and west of the MS River.

Precipitable water values through Monday afternoon are forecast
to be around 1.6 inches, which is around the 99th percentile for
this time of year. Therefore, showers and storms will likely be
efficient rainfall producers. Storm total precipitation from now
through Monday night will range from 1 - 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible. As such, a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall is in place across the majority of the Mid-South through
Monday.

A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Tuesday as quasi-
zonal flow aloft returns. By Wednesday, daily rain chances will
return as several shortwaves, embedded in zonal flow, transverse
the Mid-South. One thing to note: both the GFS and ECMWF depict a
negatively tilted trough pushing into the Midwest on Friday. The
GFS solution brings this system much further south than the ECMWF.
If this southern trend continues, severe weather chances may
materialize. However, confidence now remains low for severe
weather through the end of the week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface winds to remain the primary impact today. A few gusts in
excess of 30KT cannot be ruled out at JBR this morning, once the
mixed layer deepens with daytime heating.

A convective cap should limit daytime TSRA chances at JBR, and
preclude daytime TSRA at the remaining TAF sites. The cap will
weaken with the approach of a midlevel trough by late evening. CAM
consensus remains relatively tight with onset TSRA timing, if
slightly faster than the Extended TCF. It`s probable that
convective outflow will begin to outrun the TSRA after 06Z, with
diminishing TSRA coverage thereafter. This may be the reason that
the TCF depicts limited TSRA coverage east of MEM after 07Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB