Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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196 FXUS64 KMEG 082326 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 626 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will increase and intensify tonight under a Moderate Risk for severe weather. Destructive winds, very large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. The main line window of severe weather is from 7 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow morning. After the line exits the region, most of the region will see dry conditions. North Mississippi may see a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon associated with a upper level disturbance, but a beautiful and dry weekend is in store. Our next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will come early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Convection has started to fire up across West Tennessee as of 2 PM. Pinched in the warm sector of two boundaries is the Mid-South which has allowed convection to initiate. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread and increase in intensity this evening ahead of a strong cold front. Strong upper level divergence with a primed environment will allow convection to intensify later tonight. Mesoanalysis from the RAP shows plentiful CAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg, lapse rates around 7 C/km that will continue to steepen, 40-50 kts of effective shear, and curvature to hodographs. The threats for tonight`s severe weather threat include destructive winds of 80+mph, quick spin up tornadoes that could be strong, and significant hail of 2" or greater. Most likely timing for the main line arrival is as early as 6 PM in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. The main severe weather window for the entire Mid-South is 7 PM to 6 AM Thursday. Once the sun sets, the LLJ will begin to intensify and quickly push the line on a south/southeast track across northwest Alabama and northern Mississippi. A Flood Watch is in effect for the northeast corner of our CWA in West Tennessee (Benton, Carroll, Weakley, and Henry counties) as this area has higher probabilities (40-50%) of receiving 2 or more inches of rain tonight. Elsewhere, generally 1.5-2" is forecast through tomorrow morning. Locally higher amounts are possible in any intense updrafts. As storms have begun to fire up as mentioned above, be sure to secure loose outdoor items, prepare for power outages, and have your safe place ready to shelter in when a warning is issued. It is not safe to be in a manufactured home this evening. Please reach out to friends, family, neighbors, or local city/county officials to locate your nearest storm shelter or stay with a friend for a safe space. The line of storms should clear the area by 7 AM at the latest Thursday morning. Another upper level disturbance from the Gulf Region may bring some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe. On the brighter side, the weekend looks beautiful with dry and seasonable temperatures in the 70s. Temperatures and dewpoints will be on a slow rise as return flow settles in ahead of our next system. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Currently, no severe weather is anticipated with this system. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Short-term concerns in the 00Z TAF set continue to be the timing of showers and thunderstorms affecting TAF sites tonight. Latest model trends suggest the best potential for TS at JBR between 2-5Z, 5-8Z at MEM/MKL, and between 7-10Z at TUP. S winds will veer NW with an associated cold front tonight. Post-frontal MVFR ceilings are anticipated late tonight with a return of VFR conditions towards Thursday afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TNZ003-004-021-022. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC