Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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195 FXUS64 KMEG 170452 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1152 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Evening update consisted mostly of adjusting PoPs to reflect the ongoing and near-term convection trends. 00Z CAMs have backed off significantly on the supportive severe weather potential overnight; the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) has been trimmed out of the area. We will still likely see a wave of scattered showers and thunderstorms surging up from the Mississippi Delta overnight, but the potential strength of these storms is now looking less impactful. That`s not to say that a few rogue storms couldn`t produce gusty winds or hail, but these would likely be few and far between. Expect heavy cloud cover and southeasterly winds to keep temperatures on the balmy side in the upper 60s. CAD && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Pleasant and dry conditions will come to an end tonight as a few systems cross the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some may be strong to severe, are possible tonight and tomorrow. Tonight`s potential for severe weather looks to be north of Interstate 40 and tomorrow may be more widespread. There is low confidence in severe weather chances tonight and tomorrow. A Flood Watch goes into effect tonight at 7 PM for areas along the TN/KY and AR/MO borders. High pressure settles in on Sunday and temperatures will be on the rise and our first 90 degree day will arrive early next week. Rain chances return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 An MCV on track across Arkansas into Missouri may bring a few strong, possibly severe storms to the Mid-South late tonight. Any development will most likely be confined to north of the I-40 corridor. This MCV is approaching the region, but it is struggling to push a shortwave ridge out of the way and saturate the column. The 12z sounding from LZK showed a very dry air column with a stable near surface environment. By the time the MCV reaches the area, it will be running out of daytime heating and diurnal stability trends. There may be just enough CAPE and shear (~600 J/kg and ~25 kts of 0- 6km shear) for a strong storm or two, but a severe weather window is very narrow if at all. A deep trough under southerly flow aloft will push across the southeast from the southern plains. The strength of this trough will be highly dependent on how long the decaying MCV takes to push out of the Mid-South and if the atmosphere has enough time to recover. Models have come to a bit better agreement than this time yesterday to keep showers and a few thunderstorms around until late Saturday night. Current CAMs do not indicate any redevelopment and have the MCV to cross tonight to squash any new convection from firing tomorrow. Deterministic soundings are not impressive for tomorrow and cloud cover and any lingering showers should help keep the environment behaved tomorrow. PWs are at or above the 90th percentile for Friday morning through the afternoon. A Flood Watch will go into effect tonight at 7 PM for areas along the TN/KY and AR/MO borders until 7 PM Saturday. The aforementioned areas could see up to 2 inches from tonight through Saturday with already saturated soils. The 75th percentiles for rain for this area exceeds 3 inches or higher. High pressure begins to settle in Sunday, and we could see our first 90 degree days of the season on Monday. Rain chances increase again Tuesday through the middle of the week. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Will maintain a brief TEMPO for TS, associated with elevated warm front lifting north from north MS overnight. Confidence is low, but latest CAM consensus has edged up TS chances to warrant keeping the status quo. Global models do show some 250mb (FL0350) divergence which may aid convection overnight. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ009-018. MO...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB