Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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675 FXUS64 KSJT 090501 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Quick update to add some small mention of thunderstorms into the forecast for San Angelo and Abilene for tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Latest CAMs show convection developing earlier than originally forecasted, as early as 12Z-15Z, and a little farther west, as the dryline and then the cold front start to move into the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an unsettled pattern. On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday will limit highs to the 70s. The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south. Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south, temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid 90s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Stratus is forecast to develop at the southern 3 sites after 10Z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near KSJT after 12Z, then move east through the morning hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, so for now have introduced a mention of VCSH at KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT. Otherwise, expect a return of VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Expect gusty west winds of 10 to 12 knots today, becoming north at 12 to 16 knots behind a cold front that will move through the area this afternoon and into the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 94 60 85 59 / 0 0 20 10 San Angelo 98 63 95 62 / 0 0 20 0 Junction 99 66 98 64 / 0 0 20 0 Brownwood 94 63 89 61 / 0 0 40 10 Sweetwater 92 62 84 59 / 0 0 10 0 Ozona 94 65 94 62 / 0 0 20 10 Brady 94 65 90 63 / 0 0 30 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...Daniels