Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 241306
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
504 AM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...A seemingly ever-present, blase, yet apparently
indestructible, ridge lies parked over the outer Gulf of Alaska.
Meanwhile, a familiar summertime zone of low pressure drapes
across northwestern Canada. The interplay of these two features
continues to dictate our generally lighter winds through the Inner
Channels. However, sensible weather from the skies has largely
been determined by a successive train of upper level short-waves
riding eastward across South-Central Alaska and the northern gulf.
Currently, one crosses the northern panhandle on its way
southeast into central British Columbia by tonight. Thus isolated
to scattered showers over the northern and central panhandle will
spread southeastward through the day, potentially leaving some
breaks in the cloud cover over Haines and Skagway. Increasingly
offshore flow on the back side of the advancing short-wave will
also help part some skies for the eastern Gulf Coast and the
southern Inner Channels this afternoon/evening.

By tonight another short-wave feature will descend southeast into
the northern Gulf of Alaska and spin into another cut-off low, not
unlike the feature we describe above. Therefore, we can expect
showers to increase in coverage once again for our northern
regions tonight. But none of these showers will produce more than
a few hundredths of an inch of rain.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonable to slightly below
normal between 55 and 60 degrees. Lows will be in the 40s.

Very few changes were made to the inherited forecast for such a
rigid, but unimpactful meteorological pattern. Forecast confidence
is good.

.LONG TERM...Models have come into better agreement through the
weekend with a west-northwesterly flow regime continuing across the
panhandle. Best precipitation chances will remain over the far
northern panhandle as multiple weak impulses drop southeast along
the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge situated over the
interior and eastern gulf. However, precipitation amounts will
remain light. Latest models indicate the threat of a shift to
southwesterly flow over the weekend is becoming less likely as the
upper ridge remains situated over the central and eastern gulf. If
models continue this trend, precipitation chances in the current
forecast are overdone and will need to be diminished for late week
and into the weekend. Based upon this, did raise weekend
temperatures into the low 60s for many locations.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ012.
&&

$$

JWA/TPS

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