Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR
TO WORK WITH...SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. SW WINDS SHIFT TO W THEN NW LATE.
THIS KEEPS AIRMASS MIXED PREVENTING TMPS FROM DROPPING TO FAR. LOWS
IN THE U40S-L50S...XCPT M50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT
COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM.
UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
GUSTY WINDS & RH`S ARND 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVR
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP INTO THE M20S BUT WITH LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR






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