Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAS BECOME NW AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT AT 44009...AND GIVEN
THAT THE REMAINING SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 44009 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
5FT...BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE AND WILL NOT JUSTIFY
AN SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




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