Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING FA WEDGED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SFC
TROF MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED CHC LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I64.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL NE FLOW KEEPING AREA SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
AOB 2K FT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER SAID S/W MOVES EAST.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND SATURATED COLUMN...EXPECT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER MIDNITE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. VSBYS RATHER
PROBLEMATIC ATTM...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLO 1 MILE LATE.
THIS BODES OVER THE WATER AS WELL BUT CAPPED VSBYS AT 1-3 NM FOR
NOW GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS JUST PRIOR TO SS. MAY NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVSRY OVER THE WATERS IF VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BECOME
WIDESPREAD THERE. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT 45-50 EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ME RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLC CST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO
SAT...LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO ~5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST SAT
MORNG...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THERE THRU MIDDAY SAT...AND
THIS MAY PSBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY. SUB-SCA NE
FLOW TNGT/SAT BCMS SELY THEN SLY SAT NGT INTO SUN AS SFC LO PRES
MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA SUN NGT/MON...WHICH BCMS STALLED IN THE VICINITY ERLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99/MPR
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ/MAS



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