Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ






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