Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200238
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
938 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the southeastern states through Monday,
then slides offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Low pressure will
move northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night ahead
of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Sfc hi pres will continue to build over the local area
overnight. Other than patchy clouds...mainly far NNE
portions...SKC w/ WNW winds continuing to diminish (lastly at
the coast). Lows in the l-m30s inland...near 40F right at the
coast in SE VA-NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The sfc high moves across the Carolinas Mon then off the coast Mon
night and Tues. Dry through this period with a warming trend as
winds shift into the SSW. Highs Mon in the low to mid 50s. Lows Mon
night in the 30s to near 40 se. Increasing afternoon clouds and
milder Tue. Highs 60-65.

A trof develops along the sern coast late Tues with a weak area of
low pressure moving ne along it Tue night and Wed. Moisture from the
system lifts north with the best lift progged along the coast. Expect
shwrs to spread north Tue night then shift towards the coast Wed
morning as the system slides offshore. Likely pops along the bay
and coast...chc pops west of the Bay Tue night. Chc pops along
the coast Wed morning then drying out. Qpf generally under one
quarter inch. Lows Tue night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed
in the 50s except near 60 across nern NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area Thursday resulting in a dry but
cool holiday. Lows Wed night in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Highs Thurs
in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

Another area of low pressure develops off the se coast late in the
week but it appears the high to the north keeps any sgnfcnt moisture
south of the local area. Dry and continued cool Fri. Highs 50-55.
Next cold front approaches from the NW late Sat then crosses then
area early Sun. GFS wetter than ECMWF so will go with low chc pops
Sat night for now. Warmer Sat ahead of it with highs 55-60. Lows Sat
night in the 40s to near 50 se. Cooler behind it Sun with highs mid
40s-lwr 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high
pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Gusty WNW winds will
continue to diminish tonight.

Outlook: High pressure moves across the Southeastern states through
Monday before tracking offshore on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure
develops along the Carolina coast Wednesday with scattered showers
possible across southern TAF sites by mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
1000 PM Update...Went ahead and cancelled the Gale Warnings for
the coastal waters, wind gusts have mainly diminished below 34
knots. Winds will continue to slowly decrease overnight, but
still would not be surprised to see a gust or two up to 35
knots out 20nm. Also cancelled the Small Craft Advisories in the
the rivers (minus the Lower James) as wind gusts have
diminished below 20 knots in these locations.

Previous Discussion...Late this aftn, a cold front was pushing
out to sea, while high pressure was cntrd over NE Texas. The
gradient between the exiting cold front and the high pressure
area was resulting in NW winds 15 to 25 kt over the waters with
gusts to around 30 kt. There were a few gusts near 35 kt over
the nrn coastal waters. Will leave Gale warning in effect until
4 am for the 3 nrn coastal zns, as gusts to around 35 kt still
possible due to CAA and drier airmass filtering into the area.
Otherwise, SCA`s will remain in effect for the remainder of the
waters into/thru Mon morning, as the cntr of the high builds ENE
toward the Mid Atlc region.

High pressure builds over the SE States into the srn Mid Atlc
region Mon into Mon night, then slides out to sea on Tue.
Adverse boating conditions Mon morning will subside during the
day, with more benign/quiet sub-SCA conditions expected Mon aftn
thru Tue night, as winds become SW mainly 10 to 15 kt.

Models in fair agreement with developing a low off the SE Coast
Tue night, then passing east of Cape Hatteras and ENE out to sea
during Wed. Next chance for SCA conditions will likely be Wed
aftn into Wed night, as cool high pressure builds in fm the
west.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC)
has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The
contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations
(Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution
data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to
reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min
temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the
sensor, likely on Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-638-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/TMG
EQUIPMENT...



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