Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282035
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
435 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING (MAINLY 20 PERCENT POPS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64). A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT (PER THE NAM/GFS/SREF)...KEEPING
20 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NRN NC FRIDAY AS A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE STALLED FRONT (STILL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO
NE NC). THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH SITS OVER CNTRL NY TO CNTRL VA
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PIVOTS EWD ALONG THE COAST FROM NC TO NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE
INVOF THE FRONT DUE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE WILL SET-UP BTWN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S SW TO LOW-MID 80S NE. CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING GENERALLY KEEPS THE COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE NRN NECK/MD
LOWER EASTERN SHORE/ACCOMACK COUNTY VA...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO...
WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE) ALONG AND N-NE OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING MOST OF
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFFSHORE...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 90/MID-UPPER
80S IMMEDIATE COAST. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SUNDAY AND MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STREAMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH. MID-RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...
BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS HIGHER POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND
NW OF A LINE FROM AVC-RIC-SBY AND LOWER POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENLY RUN ABOUT 5 F ABOVE AVG WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER/MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS TO THE AREA FOR LABOR DAY...WILL CARRY 40%
POPS THROUGHOUT...FOLLOWED BY POPS ONLY ~20% ON TUE IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. TUE
LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY..WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING ABOVE 90 F AND
PERHAPS INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS IS SLATED FOR TUE EVENING/TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

BY LATE WED-THU...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC
FORECAST DOES PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ON
THU. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS WED-THU ACRS THE SOUTH (20-30%) WITH
GENLY A DRY FORECAST ACRS THE ERN SHORE.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
NOW SHIFTED AROUND TO THE N-NW IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS SW OF AREA
TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, BUT NONE
ANTICIPATED AT/AROUND TERMINALS.

AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH MENTION FOR SCT-BKN CIGS ~ 4-5 KFT OVER
SOUTHERN TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG/MIST AT/INVOF ECG LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH
DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
CRISTOBAL NOW >500 NM ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS AVG AROUND 10
KT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS MODEST PUSH OF
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ESE
FROM MICHIGAN INTO THE NE AND NRN MID ATLC REGION.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL MAINTAIN SCHS HEADLINE FOR COASTAL WATERS N
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH 7PM...WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI. (MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY). N/NE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE E/NE IN THE AFTN AND AVG 10-15 KT
ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO 5-10 KT FARTHER
NORTH. SEAS WILL GENLY ONLY BE AROUND 3 FT...BUT WILL GENLY STILL
HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AS ENERGY
FROM CRISTOBAL IS SLOW TO DIMINISH.

WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF 2-3 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY SAT NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT OR LESS AS SFC
HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS MOVE INTO
THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE/WED.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LKB





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