Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261751
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...VARYING BTWN SCT AND BKN025 AT KHRL AND BRO...WHILE KMFE
REMAINS IN THE CLEAR ZONE. LLVL JET HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRANSITION TO
THE SFC...WITH 25G30KTS NOTED AT COASTAL SITES AND 15G25KTS
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME BR FORMATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP DENSER FOG FROM FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE
FROM MODERATE TO BREEZY LEVELS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET. AS
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...FOG WILL BEGIN TO FORM...AND MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG IS
THE MOST UNSURE PART OF THE TAFS RIGHT NOW...AND VISIBILITIES MAY
NEED TO BE REDUCED BY FUTURE SHIFTS IF SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH BEING RECORDED EACH
HOUR. AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
BEING RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PATCHES OF ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69E/HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TO WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS...AND THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE NEARLY REFLECTIVE OF WHAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT.

TONIGHT...BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE FOR
THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES OF THE BRO CWFA WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTEST. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL PLAY UP THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE UPCOMING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURES IN RECENT DAYS WITH ISOLATED SPRITZES OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE INLAND AREAS...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS...BUT A SLOWER OR QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN WARMER OR COOLER TEMPERATURES...RESPECTIVELY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF
THE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BB OVER THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-69E/US HWY 77 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEACHES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RECOVER
INTO THE 50S AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

ATTENTION NOW FOCUSES ON THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING. A 1050 MB OR MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND THEN CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WILL LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WEST
TO MID 50S EAST...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDER
ESTIMATING THE COLDER AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RATHER CHILLY FOR NEW YEARS EVE AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND OVER
RUNNING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEW
YEARS DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 27 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CST/09 UTC. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST
OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DUE TO WINDS
AND SEAS. MEANWHILE...SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS AND
SEAS IMPROVING EVEN MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PREPARES TO PUSH
OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS WILL ONLY BUILD TO BETWEEN
4 AND 6 FEET SUNDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF NORTH
WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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