Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 310515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL
DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS
THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN
THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT ONWARD:
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION
PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW
EQUIPMENT...



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