Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SO NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
-6C TO -8C AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z
SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AREAS OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM
MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO



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