Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 262328
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure around the southern Great Lakes region will
keep the North Country dry on Wednesday with temperatures in the
80s to lower 90s. This ridge of high pressure will slide south as
a cold front sinks southeastward from southeastern Quebec
producing showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through
Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue on Friday. High
temperatures will be at or slightly above normal on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 718 PM EDT Tuesday...Only minimal changes with this update
to bring hourly temperatures in line, otherwise no changes. Skies
to become mostly clear overnight with loss of daytime heating. Did
add some valley fog in interior sections where cooler pockets
should radiate temperatures down to dewpoint for fog formation.
Otherwise no changes, min temps tonight look good and no precip
forecast.

Previous forecast...As the sun sets, cumulus clouds will
dissipate, leaving mostly clear skies overnight as winds decouple.
Patchy fog possible in favorable areas overnight into early
Wednesday morning. Min temperatures will range from the mid 50s in
the higher terrain to the mid 60s in the broader valleys.

Morning fog will burn off in plentiful sunshine and southerly
flow ahead of a cold front approaching from the southeastern
Ontario. 925mb temperatures reaching 23C to 24C with surface max
temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. As the day
progresses, mid to high level clouds will increase from the
northwest, ahead of aforementioned cold front and PWATS begin to
increase from less than one inch to over 1.25 inches late in the
day in the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase late in the day as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak frontal boundary north of the
international border early Wednesday evening will be the main
focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development
as it slowly sags southward through the North Country Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Overall we`re looking at fairly weak
forcing with the parent upper low well north of the area just east
of James Bay, and any shortwave energy rounding the base of the
trough being meager at best. That said, convective activity will
be largely instability driven, meaning lower chances during the
night, higher during the day/afternoon. In addition, any storms
that do develop will be more the "garden variety" type and not
severe with weak shear/CAPE profiles in place. Likely to see some
brief heavy downpours though with any stronger cores that do
develop as PWAT progs jump up to around 1.5". Lows both nights
will be fairly close to normal though slightly above in the upper
50s to upper 60s Wednesday night ahead of the front, and mid 50s
to lower 60s behind the front Thursday night. Highs Thursday will
be right around normal in the low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Still some uncertainty on the forecast
going into the end of the week and weekend but feel global models
are converging on a drier forecast with high pressure over central
Ontario and the Great Lakes Thursday night slowly meandering over
the Northeast through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast
comes with a strong thermal boundary to our south coinciding with
a fast westerly flow aloft with possible embedded shortwaves
ejecting out of convective activity over the mid-west. Feeling is
that outside of a few showers across southern Vermont on Friday,
we should be mainly dry through the Sunday with the boundary
remaining south and temps right around seasonal normals.

As we move into the early part of next week, we`ll reintroduce
some low chances for showers and thunderstorms as the
aforementioned high drifts off the eastern seaboard with warmer
and more humid weather returning on increasing southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00z Thursday...VFR through the period except IFR/LIFR fog
development possible at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07z-12z
as winds decouple and skies clear. VFR clear through the morning,
then sct-bkn mid/high clouds will move south from Canada across
the TAF sites from mid day onward. Light northwest wind this
evening will become light & variable overnight, then turn
light southerly to southwest on Wednesday.

Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday...

00z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday
and Friday.

00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hanson



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