Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 071140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE
INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT
2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW
SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS.
AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY GETS GOING IN THE MID MORNING
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN THAT
SURGE OF ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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