Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 240547
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds and the threat of light snow will exist today
as a warm front pushes into the area. Mixed precipitation or
rain will be likely on and off into the coming weekend as this
front waffles south and north across the region. Temperatures
will moderate back toward more seasonal late March values
through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 146 AM EDT Friday...Based on satellite/radar trends still
looking at increasing clouds through the early morning
hours...but precipitation might get off to a slightly slower
start across the area. Any precipitation is still well upstream
and will have to overcome a dry air mass in place over the area.
Have thus slowed the onset time down by a couple of
hours...otherwise remainder of forecast in good shape.

Previous Discussion:
A messy day then on tap for Friday as the warm front marches
into the region under strengthening southerly flow and
widespread mixed precipitation. Some channeling effects likely
in the Champlain Valley where gusts to near 30 mph look
plausible at this point. Boundary layer to mid level thermal
profiles will be critical in determining eventual p-type as
widespread light snows slowly transition to a mix of snow/sleet
and eventual rain from the Champlain Valley west. P-type should
hold more in the form of snow and/or a mix of snow/sleet across
much of east central and northeastern VT where mid level warming
will be less and colder near surface layers will be harder to
scour out. Mixed precipitation top down methodology using a
variety of model output continues to support the idea of little
in the way of freezing rain with this feature, which appears
reasonable seeing the primary mid-level warm layer generally
runs in the 0-3C range through 21Z. Experience would suggest
however at least some patchy -fzra may occur here and there
through the morning hours. Front end snow totals should
generally run in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with slightly higher
totals from 1.5 to 4 inches likely across east central and
northeastern VT. Given the front end light snows will inhibit
any pavement icing and only low probabilities of a few
hundredths of ice accumulation are suggested (if any) will hold
off on issuing any advisories at this point. Late day high
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 30s east and
north, and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.

By Friday night widespread light rains (or mixed precipitation
north and east) will gradually wane over time as best warm
thermal advection lessens. Later at night models continue to
suggest building high pressure to our north will push the front
back southward into the area with flow transitioning to a light
northerly regime by daybreak Saturday. This will tend to shunt
the precipitation shield southward as well as coverage/intensity
lessens. Some lingering light rains/mixed precipitation/light
snows will remain possible though settle generally into our
southern counties by morning. Lows a bit tricky though with
expected abundance of clouds upper 20s to lower 30s looks
reasonable for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday....For Saturday and Saturday night
frontal boundary will remain draped across our forecast area.
This means that threat for mixed precipitation will continue
through the short term period. Large area of high pressure will
push South out of Canada on Saturday and push frontal boundary
south of our region. Precipitation will also push south of the
area and we will be in the cold sector on the North side of the
front. During the second half of Saturday night frontal boundary
lifts back up over the area and will be situated across
Northern New York and Vermont. Despite odd frontal boundary
drifting South of the area then back across our area the
temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very near to
seasonal normals. We will have a little bit of rain across our
Southern zones on Saturday, then some mixed precipitation as the
boundary lifts back northward Saturday night with some snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 346 PM EDT Thursday...Aforementioned frontal boundary
remains over Northern New York from Sunday through Monday. More
mixed precipitation is expected as thermal boundary is stacked
up right over us. Upper level low pressure system and strong
upper level shortwave cross the region later Sunday into Sunday
night, and still pushing Eastward across our CWA on Monday.
Precipitation will finally end Monday night. But, will only be a
short break in the action with another low pressure system
approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately with
freezing lines staying very close to our forecast area, we will
mostly have rain with these systems but need to also continue to
monitor potential for trouble with mixed precipitation as well,
freezing rain and sleet. Tough to find a dry period over the
next week with very active weather and borderline temperatures
causing lots of forecasting challenges.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through about 14z
before ceilings and visibilities lower through the remainder of
the period. Looking at MVFR/IFR conditions developing over the
entire area...especially after 18z and continuing through the
remainder of the period. Precipitation will begin as snow and
then transition over to rain between 21z and 00z. Light winds
through 12z before increasing out of the south with gusts in the
15 to 20 knot range at most locations later this morning and
afternoon.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

06Z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions
expected to improve as precipitation settles southward and
lessening in coverage by Saturday afternoon affecting mainly
southern terminals at that point. Highest threat of mix to occur
at northern terminals.

18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR
/precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly
southward into the area.

12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation
and/or rain return to the region.

12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation
transitions toward a period of steadier rains by Wednesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/KGM


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