Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 152327
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region
will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country late
tonight into Saturday morning along with a light accumulation. A
brief ridge of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the
weekend on Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next
week with several chances for precipitation, especially on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 603 PM EST Friday...Overall forecast in good shape and no
real big changes needed at this time. Only tweak was to confine
any precipitation to Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New
York for now before shortwave trough moves in and spreads
precipitation eastward over the remainder of the area.

Previous Discussion...
The forecast remains on track for a light accumulating snow
across the region late tonight through Saturday morning as an
upper trough and weak surface low tracking through the Great
Lakes this afternoon swing just northwest and over the region.
Low/mid level southwest flow ahead of the trough has aided in
the development of a lake effect snow band in the lee of Lake
Ontario northward up the St. Lawrence River this afternoon with
surface obs and area webcams showing on/off snow showers at
Ogdensburg and Potsdam over the past few hours. Expect this
activity to continue until the trough shifts the flow
west/southwest after midnight where at that point snow showers
will become more widely scattered across the northern
Adirondacks and then points eastward towards sunrise, especially
over the northwest upslope favored areas. By mid-morning
Saturday activity should be diminishing with area snow totals
generally a dusting to 2" with perhaps 3" in the lake effect.

Saturday evening and overnight a brief ridge of high pressure
builds into the region with clearing skies and light winds
aiding in another good night of radiational cooling. Temps will
once again fall below normal levels with lows early Sunday
morning in the single digits above and below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 409 PM EST Friday...Sunday will start off mostly sunny
and cold with a weak ridge building along the eastern seaboard.
Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper teens over
higher elevations and reach the low 20s in valley locations. Mid
to upper-level moisture will increase throughout the day, so
expect mostly sunny skies in the morning to become party to
mostly cloudy by the evening.

Sunday night, clouds will continue to increase from west to east
as a warm front lifts through the area from the southwest. As
winds gain an increasingly southerly component, a slightly
warmer air mass will be advected in. Low temperatures will be
moderated by the warmer air moving in and the increased cloud
cover overnight. Nevertheless, will still see fairly chilly lows
in the upper single digits to mid teens across the area as the
bulk of the warmest air won`t move in until late Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 409 PM EST Friday....The extended forecast will continue to
feature an active weather pattern as a series of disturbances
quickly move through the area amid strengthening upper-level flow.

Monday will be considerably warmer than Sunday, with highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s expected throughout the forecast area.
Increasing isentropic ascent will support light snow showers
across northern New York and Vermont Monday as the warm front
pushes through. Moisture will be fairly limited however,
especially in the low-levels, and snow accumulations in most
areas should stay under an inch from Sunday night through Monday
evening. Northern New York will see a little more snow than
Vermont as moisture from the lake feeds into the system.

Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as warmer air advects
in under southwesterly flow. An approaching shortwave will
bring the next focus for precipitation Tuesday evening/Tuesday
night. At this time, it`s looking like enough warm air will be
in place to support fairly widespread rain out this system. The
exception to this will be higher elevations, which could cling
on to some snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday night.

A cold front moving down from Canada will bring a return of the
colder more seasonal temperatures by mid week, with highs in the
20s to 30s expected Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for snow
showers will persist through Friday as weak waves move through
the upper-level flow. Next weekend looks to feature more active
weather, however models have yet to come into any sort of
agreement on the evolution of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR
conditions through the period. As a trough of low pressure moves
across the area a more persistent MVFR ceilings will exist
everywhere with possible IFR conditions at KSLK...especially
between 06z and 12z. After 12Z improving conditions back
towards VFR is expected with snow showers diminishing. Winds
will generally be light south/southwest and turn west/northwest
tomorrow afternoon at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff



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