Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 172337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through the
end of the week with fair and mild to warm temperatures expected by
late October standards. The next chance of appreciable precipitation
occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a strong cold front
crosses the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 737 PM EDT Tuesday...Overall forecast for the overnight
hours remains in good shape with the idea that we`ll see some
increasing low/mid clouds shifting in associated with a
shortwave trough passing to our north. Made some adjustments to
sky cover and temps based on current trends, but in general the
previous forecast remains intact.

Previous Discussion...Quiet conditions will continue over
the next 36 hours and beyond as strong high pressure bridges
across the northeastern states with fair and dry weather
expected. A shortwave trough passing well north of the area
across central Quebec will continue to bring occasional mid to
high clouds across northern counties into tonight. Otherwise
mainly clear/sunny skies are expected by Wednesday into
Wednesday night as temperatures continue to moderate. With
southerly return flow well established, tonight`s low
temperatures will stay considerably milder than this morning,
generally bottoming out from the lower to mid 40s in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys to the mid to upper 30s in
the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. By Wednesday mean 925 mb
temperatures climb into the 10-12C range supporting afternoon
highs in the lower to mid 60s, with mainly 40s expected for
Wednesday night lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area of surface high pressure
persists over the southeastern USA as weakening low over
northern Quebec attempts to drag a cold front near the
international border Thursday. With dry air in place over the
North Country - PWATS half inch or less - expect any moisture
from front to result in increased clouds, but no precipitation.
Behind the front and associated mid-upper level trough, ridging
at the surface and aloft build into the northeast. Ridging will
persist through the weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period,
starting in the 60s to near 70 on Thursday and cooler on Friday
behind the cold front, then rebounding back into the 60s to low
70s for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunday will be warm ahead of cold
front associated with longwave trough which will dig southward
from Ontario. This system will provide multiple chances for
showers into the middle of next week. PWATs look to increase to
around 1 inch, possibly more in strong SW flow. Wind channeling
up the valleys could result in strong gusty winds Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours with SCT-BKN mid clouds moving over
the region overnight associated with a disturbance passing well
to our north. Some lower ceilings are likely as well, but should
only affect KSLK after midnight through shortly after sunrise.
Elsewhere any low ceilings will be more scattered and just
briefly affect terminals. Winds will be south-southwest at
5-10kts with some gusts to 16-18kts this evening. A brief
period of 30 to 40 kt southwesterly LLWS around 020 AGL will
also be possible at KSLK/KRUT in the 02-08Z time frame.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, NY will be down for scheduled maintenance
today, Tuesday, October 17 through a good portion of Wednesday,
October 18 as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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