Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280707
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS
DOWN EAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 12Z FRI.

A REALITY CHECK TODAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.  THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCU ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TODAY ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNEAST
AS SHOWERS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7-8C/KM FROM 700-1000 MILLIBARS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE WIND ALOFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE BIG STORY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW 70S
DOWNEAST. THE LAST OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND GIVE WAY
TO A CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DECOUPLING. A
FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS (NW VALLEYS) MAY DROP INTO THE 30S
IF THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR AND THE WIND GOES CALM FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE 40S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BE 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD
AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX BY 00Z THIS
EVENING.  THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THE STORM WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL
AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT A LONG PERIOD SWELL TO BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THE
SIZE OF THE INCOMING WAVES WILL VARY AND COULD CAUSE ANYONE IN THE
SURF ZONE TO GET SWEPT OUT INTO THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
BRINGING BRIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND A NORTH WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR FRIDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING THICKENING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS IT PULLS SOME
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE AIR ON SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE RUNNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUNDAY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK AND MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL COME FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AS A
FUNCTION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY BUT SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER BRINGING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS IN
STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY AND IFR ACROSS
THE NORTH AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LOWER. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL RUN INTO FRI. THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL IS NOW REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED FROM 5 SECONDS LAST EVENING TO 11 SECONDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 6
FEET FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BE NEARLY CALM BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN GUSTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ029>030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER




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