Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 251917
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
317 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
An occluded front crosses the area tonight with showers. High
pressure builds in for late Tuesday. A cold front just north of
the area Wednesday crosses the area Wednesday night and Thursday
with unsettled weather.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tonight as an occluded
front crosses the area. Showers will increase from west to east
through the evening, then taper off from west to east later in
the night. Instability aloft actually increases through the
evening and could see a few embedded storms, but nothing strong.
Precipitable water values skyrocket to 1.5 to 2 inches through the
evening, and with slow movement of cells, flooding is a little
concern later in the evening and overnight. Some high res
ensemble members generate very localized 2 to 3 inches of rain,
which could fall in a few hours. Not too concerned about flash
flooding, but a few spots may see enough to warrant some sort of
advisory. Really anywhere in the area could see the heavier
downpours, with a slightly greater chance Downeast. Most areas
will see somewhere roughly 1/2 inch or a little less of rain,
although a few spots, as mentioned before, will get a fair amount
more. Fog is another concern tonight, mainly Downeast, where some
visibilities to 1/2 mile and possibly lower are expected.
The rain tapers off some later tonight, although a shortwave
trough moving through in the morning hours with help keep some
shower activity going Tuesday, especially over the north. Kept
likely precip chances up north for Tuesday. Shortwave trough axis
passes through by early afternoon, but daytime heating should
compensate for this and keep the activity going into the
afternoon. Don`t expect anything severe for Tuesday, although a
few cells could have small hail. Another warm day Tuesday with
highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move away from New England Tuesday Night. A cold
front will approach from he northwest during the day Wednesday.
This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms during the
day Wednesday, mainly across the north. Another cold front will
move across the region Thursday as upper level low pressure passes
to the the north resulting more showers.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers are expected to come to an end Thursday Night. Low
pressure will pass to the south of the area Saturday, too far to
the south to produce any precipitation. High pressure is then
expected to build in across the region during the day Saturday.
Showers are possible again during the day Sunday into Monday as
another system approaches from the west.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR developing tonight with showers and low
clouds/fog. Lowest IFR conditions toward the coast, but at least a
period of IFR expected throughout. Improving to MVFR through the
day Tuesday, although Northern Maine may not improve to VFR until
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday.
NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft through Tuesday. However,
fog will be an issue tonight.
SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds. For waves: With wind
speeds across the waters expected to be below 10 knots through
most of this forecast period expected wave systems to primarily
result from incoming low period southeasterly swell running
around 2 feet/6-7 seconds..