Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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994
FXUS61 KCAR 271049
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region Today then move to the
east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area
Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 6:45 am: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other
changes.

Strong high pressure will build in from the northwest today and
crest over the region this evening. The high will then move off to
the east late tonight and Sunday Morning. This system is expected
to bring dry conditions through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another round of wet weather heading our way during this term.

A frontal system is expected to move into the region Sunday night
and pass across the CWA on Monday. All the short range guidance
including the GFS/NAM and ECMWF support a broad area of low pres
moving across northern areas. There appears to be 2 areas of
rainfall w/up to 0.25 inch associated w/this system. One area of
rainfall is expected northern Maine w/the second area across
Downeast Maine. Both of these areas reside w/the best mid level
forcing as shown well by the OOZ GFS and NAM. The ECMWF and
Canadian Global appear to be to high w/the QPF. Decided on pops of
60-70% into early Monday. Atmosphere does look like it could
destabilize later in the morning into the early afternoon. BUFKIT
soundings show CAPE of 500 to possibly 1000 joules w/lis down to
-2 and mid level lapse rates near 6.5c/km. Attm, not too confident
about convection given the recovery time from the earlier rain.
Therefore, leaned w/20% mention for tstms for Monday. Still some
time to assess this situation w/the later model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
More wet weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Weak high pres will slide across the region Monday night into
Tuesday w/some drying although it will be brief. Daytime
Temperatures will reach well into the 70s and lower 80s on
Tuesday.

Another frontal system is fcst to affect the CWA later Tuesday
night into Wednesday w/more showers. The guidance could be
overloading things w/the QPF given the zonal flow aloft. Given
this setup, decided to lean w/40-50% for pops. GFS soundings
support some instability w/CAPE OF 1000-1500 joules across the
Central Highlands and Downeast region Wednesday afternoon. Decent
mid level lapse rates of 6.5 c/km. Timing will be the key.
Confidence is no higher than 20% attm and given some uncertainties
w/the timing and stable layer hanging on, decided on Slight Chance
for tstms in the aforementioned areas. As is the case in the short
term section, there is still some time to assess this potential.
Temps will be cooler across the northern areas on Wednesday
w/afternoon readings forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. Central
and downeast areas should see upper 70s to lower 80s.

Unsettled into Thursday and possibly Friday as an upper level
system moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR Conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.


SHORT TERM: VFR dropping to MVFR Sunday night and then to IFR by
Monday morning. MVFR conditions look like they hang on into
Monday afternoon across the northern terminals while KBGR and KBHB
go VFR. VFR w/patchy fog possible Tuesday morning and a brief
period of MVFR. Most of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will be VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will use the NAM12 to populate the wind grids. For
waves: Primary wave system is shorter period swell (2 feet/6
seconds) generated earlier in the Gulf of Maine yesterday from
southwest winds. This wave system is accompanied by a longer
period southeasterly swell system (1 foot/8-9 seconds). Will use
the Near Shore Wave Model to Populate grids.

SHORT TERM: No headlines through Tuesday. Winds will generally run
10-15 kts. Seas will build a bit w/a swell component setting up
bringing heights to 4-5 ft especially across the outer zones.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt
Marine...Mignone/Hewitt



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