Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POP AND WX ELEMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS WERE FILLING IN AS THE
WEAK LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TIMING
TO SPEED THINGS UP A FEW HRS AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED AT EASTPORT BUT
WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO LINE UP BETTER
AS THE LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING READINGS BASICALLY AVERAGING IN THE
40S..

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA


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