Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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969
FXUS61 KCAR 281046
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
646 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will approach the region from the west today
and will cross the area this evening. An upper level disturbance
will move across Maine Wednesday afternoon and evening. High
pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday night. Low
pressure is expected to pass south of the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 am update...
Area of snow showers mvg thru the Crown of Maine attm as upr lvl
wv rotates thru. This shud be out in the next hr or so with
another more widespread area of pcpn getting ready to cross the
brdr in the next few hrs. Hv adjusted wx grids to indicate more
snow acrs the far north as latest soundings show little in the
way of a warm lyr. Temps are still in the m20s acrs the north
and arnd 30 in Downeast with vry little mvmnt overnight. Thus no
chgs needed to temps at this time.

Prev discussion blo...
Wk sfc low currently sitting in Quebec with sfc bndry bringing
precip to the Province at this time. Snow has all but exited CWA
as of midnight with final Winter Wx Advisories dropped.
Widespread light snowfall occurred acrs CWA yda along with some
icing acrs srn zones. Expect a brief break in pcpn thru daybreak
this mrng, outside of patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle, bfr
moisture ahd of sfc bndry/low mvs into wrn zones this mrng,
dropping south thru the day.

Expect lgt snow or sleet thru mid-mrng for nrn Maine as temps rmn
blo frzg. AS convergence shifts south drg the aftn ahd of bndry and
temps warm to arnd 40 ovr Downeast, expect sctd showers into the
evng.

Bufkit sndgs indicate mainly frozen pcpn drg the day acrs the St.
John Vly tho may see a mix with sleet/rain in the aftn which may be
enuf to get another inch or two of snow thru the end of the nr term.

Bndry mvs thru aft midnight bringing pcpn to an end as lgt snow
showers. Mins wl rmn well abv normal in soupy airmass with extensive
moisture trapped under the inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WED INTO WED
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS, BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS THE LOW LEVELS ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE SHOWERS COULD TAKE
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST REGION.  THE TROUGH MOVES EAST WED NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA INTO THU.  THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED NIGHT WITH A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTH THU WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOWNEAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH
THE LOW 40S IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  LOW PRESSURE
IN OHIO VALLEY FRI IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALL HAVE A LOW PASSING OFF THE COAST, BUT THERE ARE
TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE THE LOW TRACKS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA
EITHER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, OR JUST DURING THE DAY SAT. AN
INVERTED  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW MAY
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUN, THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET SUN INTO MON WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Low MVFR/IFR through the morning at FVE, CAR, PQI
and HUl as extensive low level moisture gets trapped under an
inversion along with -shsn moving thru drg the morning hrs and
into the aftn. BGR and BHB will experience IFR next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WED INTO
WED EVENING WITH VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER to MVFR or even IFR LATER FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT, ESPECIALLY AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS AS LOW PRES PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA for hazardous seas is in effect thru noon today
before seas diminish blo 5ft after this time. Levels will rmn
under SCA criteria through Wed.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WED NIGHT INTO
THU, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE OFFSHORE PORTION OF COASTAL WATERS
WHERE BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FRI.  THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN
AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION AN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS COMES TO THE waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today is the 119th consecutive day with a foot or
more of snow on the ground at Caribou. The all-time record of
120 days was set during the winter of 1968-1969.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Farrar/CB
Marine...Farrar/CB
Climate...



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