Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 011534
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EASTERN MAINE WITH VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO PRIMARILY
EAST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY IS CLEAR, COLD AND WINDY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN
COLD AND WINDY AND DRY. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE IN
OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR
AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST.  TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING YET HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO THE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH REGARDING THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVG E FROM THE OH VLY SUN OFF THE NJ
COAST ON MON TAKING THE SFC LOW TO NEAR THE SRN NOVA SCOTIA COAST
BY LATE MON NGT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING MDT TO HVY SN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS...SPCLY TO THE COAST AND CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE MON
MORN THRU MON NGT WHERE WE CONVERTED WATCHES TO WRNGS...ALONG
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIG BLSN AND DRIFTING.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN ADVC OF THIS SYSTEM OVR NRN
AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW SHARP OF A GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER SNFL TOTALS WILL
BE PRESENT N OF THE WRNG AREA...SO FOR NOW WE HELD ON TO THE
REMAINING WATCH ZONES TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS IN THE
EVENT THE TREND OF THE STORM TRACK REVERSES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
S...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER S/WV TROF HAS LESSER AMPLITUDE
AS PER THE 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WE SHOW MAX TOTAL SNFL IN THE 10 TO 15
INCH RANGE ALG THE COAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...KEEPING SN TO LIQ
RATIOS AT 15:1...WHICH WAS THE CASE FOR MOST LCTNS WITH THE PAST
EVENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS STEADY LGT SNFL SHOULD BARELY ECLIPSE
THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY MON EVE...BEFORE THE SN SHIELD BEGINS TO
RETREAT EWRD INTO NB LATE MON NGT...SO SN TOTAL THERE MAY ONLY BE
ARND AN INCH OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT...WITH LLVL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD SN EVENT
INDEED...WITH WIND CHILLS APCHG ADV CRITERIA EVEN OVR DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENT.

FOLLOWING THE STORM LATE MON NGT...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN AS
SN SN SHWRS...THEN END BY TUE MORN AS SKIES BECOME PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY. FAIR...COLD AND SOMEWHAT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA TUE AFT. AFTWRDS...CLDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LKS
APCH TUE NGT. HI AND LOW TEMPS TUE/TUE NGT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSELY COLD AS MON AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT OVRRNG SNFL FOR WED...THEN
UNCERTAINTY RULES REGARDING WHETHER MORE SIG SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR
WED NGT...OR AS WHAT SOME GFS ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...ON
THU INTO PERHAPS THU EVE. THE TMG OF SIG SNFL WILL BE CONTIGENT ON
WHETHER A SFC LOW FORMS ALG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND TRACKS S OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SN...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA ON WED
NGT...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHG AND WE DRAW CHC POPS OUT INTO
THU. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
DRY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CNTRL CAN TO ARRIVE NO LATER THAN THU
NGT...HOLDING SWAY OVR THE FA INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WITH SN OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE MON MORN AND THEN NRN TAF
SITES DURG THE AFTN...WITH KFVE LAST TO GO DOWN BY EVE. LIFR TO
VLIFR XPCTD OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON AFTN INTO MON EVE IN FALLING
MDT-HVY SN AND BLSN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE MON NGT TO MVFR CLGS
AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS THEN BACK TO VFR TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SN IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU MORN...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER MON INTO ERLY
TUE MORN FOR NE TO NW WINDS AROUND THE LOW ADVCG FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FZG SPY ADV
FOR MDT FZG SPY DURG THIS TM. WINDS AND FZG SPY POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH LATER TUE TO SCA...WITH NO HDLNS XPCTD BY WED MORN.
FCST WV HTS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN


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