Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 290857
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
457 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over northern Maine today. An
weakening occluded front will cross the region later tonight
into Tuesday morning. Another frontal boundary is expected to
cross the region Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After some morning showers across far n and nw, the CWA will
become rain-free into the evening as the stalled frontal
boundary lifts back to the Maine-Canadian border. The latest run
of the RAP was matched up well w/this setup as high pres wedges
down from the ne. Satl imagery showed quite a bit of cloudiness
across the CWA this morning. RAP soundings showed some potential
for some breaks in the clouds early on, but as the day progresses
clouds should fill back in w/a sse wind. This will lead to a rather
cool day w/daytime temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s w/the warmer temps away from the Bangor- Bar Harbor region.

Clouds will thicken up in earnest this evening from s to n as an
occluded front lifts across the region. There does appear to be
enough forcing in the mid levels to generate some shower activity
across the the sw and then the activity moves ne overnight. Decided
to go w/40% pops overnight into Tuesday morning w/QPF amounts around
0.10".

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloudy conditions with highs in the lower 60s are anticipated
Tuesday with the risk of showers increasing later in the day
with the occluded front. Most of the shower activity with the
front will occur Tuesday night. There is just enough elevated
instability to include a slight chance of thunderstorms for
northern Aroostook County later Tuesday evening. For Wednesday,
a more southerly flow than previously expected will keep cooler
marine air streaming over most of the area and minimize surface
based convection except towards the western border on Wednesday
afternoon. Shower activity is expected through the day ahead of
an upper level shortwave. Some elevated convection is possible
Wednesday night and may have to include in the next forecast
package. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday night, drier
conditions and a westerly flow is expected for Thursday. There
may be some remaining shower activity, but it would be light and
widely scattered.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The persistent upper low that caused the unsettled weather
through the week will drift towards Maine during Friday and a
vigorous shortwave will move through the region Friday afternoon
and evening. The amount of shear and cold air advection aloft
raises concern for some severe storms with this shortwave. The
upper low will move over the state Saturday with more showery
activity and a cool northerly flow, but showers will tend to
decrease Sunday and Sunday night as the upper low finally moves
east into the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR for KBGR and KBHB this morning w/MVFR-VFR across
the northern terminals. Conditions across the northern terminals
will be VFR w/periods of MVFR cigs today into tonight. KBGR and
KBHB will see IFR to improve to MVFR but will start dropping
back to IFR later tonight w/some fog possible.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday will start IFR towards BGR and BHB, but VFR
further north. All sites will be VFR by afternoon. On Tuesday
night, conditions will deteriorate to IFR cigs by later in the
night into Wednesday morning. Cigs will only improve to MVFR
before returning to IFR Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
VFR conditions are forecast by later Thursday morning through
Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines expected this term. SSE winds will pick
up some later this afternoon into the evening at speeds of 10
to 15 kts. The winds will drop back to around 10 kts or less by
midnight. Seas look like they will remain 2 to 3 ft through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be a factor starting later Tuesday night
and continuing into Thursday morning. There is a chance of some
higher swell starting Friday and continuing into Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Hewitt/MCW



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