Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 230136
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
736 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF GLASGOW THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWED FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE REGION.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DUG INTO THE BAJA
OF MEXICO TODAY. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER MONTANA
AS A RESULT AND THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

MODELS DEPICTING A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
FIRST BATCH LOOKS TO FORM FROM INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF MONTANA. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED TSTORMS MAY SPILL
INTO THE SW ZONES THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH OUT OF WYOMING TOWARD
THE SE ZONES. THE GFS BRINGS UP AN ASSOCIATED LOW CUTTING IT OFF AND
ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO SOAK THE SE ZONES. THE NAM AND EC KEEP
THE WAVE OPEN AND THEREFORE PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST.
BEING THAT IT HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS.

EVEN IF THE RAINFALL MISSES THE AREA...COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SE ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 60S AFTER HIGHS NEAR 70 TODAY.

WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY AND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM STANDS WITH CHANGES BEING MINOR. SPLIT FLOW
IS MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY WITH UNTIMEABLE
SHORTWAVES LEADING TO WASHED OUT POPS.

A STRONG SIGNAL IS SHOWING UP FOR A TROUGH TO DROP INTO MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT. HAVE
BIT ON THIS SIGNAL FROM BOTH THE EC AND GFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME ROOM TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER. COLD POOL WILL PROBABLY
KICK OUT BY THE WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND THE NORMAL FORECAST RANGE.
GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING
NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH AND KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
EAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW AND PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER
WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS TIME SYSTEMS DIFFERENTLY BUT EACH
ONE HAS FREQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GOING THROUGH MONTANA WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THAT WOULD BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: BROKEN MID-LEVEL THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND COULD INITIATE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AT KGDV AND KSDY TERMINALS LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SUNSET...INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KTS AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

GAH/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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