Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 201526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LEFT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING IS NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
LARGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO IT IS
IN QUESTION WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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