Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 012018
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE HAS SPREAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO MONTANA TODAY TO BECOME A CUT-OFF HIGH
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY NEARBY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BRING IN
SOME CLOUDINESS IS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME RAIN THERE...BUT KEEP US DRY.

AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THICKNESS
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP HIGHER TO BRING INCREASINGLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES....WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ALSO DURING
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15KT
IN THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ECXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHING STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY
DIRECTION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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