Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 240307
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
907 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

Latest Update...

Aside from modestly increasing winds for this evening across
portions of the CWA, the remainder of the short term forecast is
on track depicting potential for strong to high winds tomorrow as
well as fire weather concerns. Maliawco

6 PM UPDATE:

Minor tweaks to the current forecast in the near term. Still
expecting the cold front post noon on Wednesday with the peak of
the high wind event by mid afternoon. No changes after midnight
tonight made to the ongoing forecast.   Proton

Previous Discussion:

Forecast attention continues to be focused on
the strong cold front and its associated high winds expected to
push through northeast Montana tomorrow. A tightly-wound low
pressure system will slide from the British Columbia coastline
east- southeastward through northern Montana. Thanks to the timing
and nature of the storm system, strong and gusty winds are
expected to spread through the western half of our CWA. After
internal and external collaboration, the high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning and expanded. Due to recent dry
conditions and expected conditions tomorrow, fire weather concerns
will also be enhanced. A Red Flag Warning has also been issued.

Some recent model data runs have come in with slightly lesser wind
speeds, but given the general synoptic consistency and pattern
trends, we felt that it was warranted to forecast on the higher
side of the model consensus data and even nudge those numbers up a
bit more. The track of this system and others of a similar nature
in the past tend to result in much stronger winds than are forecast
by most of the deterministic models.

Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected near
and ahead of the cold front. Most rainfall will be realized along
the southeastern edge of our CWA.

Wednesday night through Friday, the low pressure system will
weaken, but generally linger in the region with repeated small-
scale disturbances bringing slight chances for rain showers to
portions of the area.

BMickelson


.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

Main feature for the weekend into early next week: A closed low
pressure system over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will bring
a cool northernly flow with embedded weak weather systems
producing brief isolated light showers. A stronger weather system
is forecast to wrap southward across NE Montana on Monday with
the possibility of cool and windy northerly winds. TC

&&

.AVIATION...
Flight Category:VFR

Synopsis: A deep low pressure system is forecast to form along
the front range of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. A cold front
will then sweep across the region during the day on Wednesday.

Wx: Very ISOL TSRA with gusty winds possible areawide AFT 18Z.

Wind: SE wind shifting to the SW to NW and increasing to 25 to 35
kts with gusts to 50 kts for KGGW, and up to 40 kts for KOLF, KSDY
and KGDV.    Proton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong low pressure system and attendant cold front pushes
through the region tomorrow, bringing with it anomalously dry and
windy conditions in the western half of the district, and chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the east. As a result there will
be a Red Flag Warning out for low RHs and strong winds on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Tuesday: Main feature for this time period,
a closed low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This pattern is forecast to bring a cool northernly
flow with embedded weak weather systems producing brief isolated
light showers. A stronger weather system is forecast to wrap
southward across NE Montana on Monday with the possibility of cool
and windy northerly winds.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central
and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...
Southwest Phillips.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for
MTZ120-134>137.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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