Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 162136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
336 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue...

Winds continue to be the main forecast concern for this week.
Shortwave trof will be coming into Western Canada tonight, then
slide across the Rockies on Tuesday. Winds expected to increase on
Tuesday ahead of a cold front, along with warming temperatures and
lowering RH. Strongest winds expected over the higher terrain in
the northwest zones. Fire weather concerns are increasing with
recent dry conditions, so have issued a Red Flag Warning for the
Little Rockies. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Tue night through Mon...
Changes were made for mainly the winds on Tuesday night. Shortwave
sliding along the Canadian border and cold front passage will
bring very strong winds into northern Montana. Models continue to
increase the 850mb and 700mb winds, especially into the northwest
zones for the overnight hours. Given the caa and pressure rises,
even overnight, expect some very high wind gusts around the Little
Rockies especially. Have issued a High Wind Watch for Southwest
Phillips County for Tuesday night.

Previous long term discussion...An upper level disturbance
tracking well north of the area Tuesday night will track close as
a surface dry cold front passes through the area. With this system
will come a tight pressure gradient leading to gusty winds,
particularly before 06Z. Some model guidance shows in excess of 40
kts at 850mb Tuesday evening. The proximity of the shortwave to
the region, CAA, and other factors could allow enough boundary
layer mixing to continue the breezy conditions well into the
evening and nighttime hours. Thus, continuing the Lake Wind
Advisory for the Fort Peck Lake area makes sense.

Warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions will once again
arrive by Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge pattern over the
Western U.S. becomes established and advances toward northeast
Montana. Height rises are sufficient along with 850mb model
temperatures to trend this portion of the forecast a little above
the consensus model blends. This results in highs on Thursday well
into the 70s for a large portion of the area.

Although models indicate that a new trough will arrive near the
Pacific Coast by the end of the week, allowing the ridge to
gradually shift downstream of the area, there remains enough
spread int he model solutions to create some uncertainty here. As
a result, the forecast was trended close to consensus model blends
at the end of the period. Maliawco



VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday. LLWS may occur at
times from around 06z through about 15z as strong winds set up
above the surface.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for MTZ135.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
for Southwest Phillips.

Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT Wednesday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern


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