Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 041010
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
410 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH THE SURFACE HEATING...AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION...STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON FORT PECK LAKE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THIS MORNING TO TURN NORTH BY THIS EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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