Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 172354 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SMALL MCSS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE CONVECTION ERODES QUICKLY
UPON REACHING DRY LOW LEVELS ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT, BUT THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS,
ESPECIALLY VIA THE NAM, THAT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS PROMPT ONLY A LOW POP AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NELY
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR THRU THURSDAY BEFORE VEERING TO A MORE E-SELY
MOIST FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, BUT
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL, BUT WILL HAVE
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THIS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A COOL FRONT ARRIVES ON
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG NW FLOW WAVE TRACKS THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. QG DYNAMICS APPEAR WEAK ON
OUR PORTION OF THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT THE POP LOW ATTM. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONSISTENCY AND POSITION OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
WILL LEAVE DAYS 6-7 ALONE FOR NOW.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. KMSL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHILE KHSV SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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