Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 301125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

For 12Z TAFs.


(Issued 223 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016)
The deep upper low has not moved much over the last 24 hours and
remains centered over central Kentucky. This has helped provide the
area with the cooler temps yesterday and the cooler overnight lows.
As of 2 am, parts of central middle TN were in the upper 40s while
northern AL was in the lower 50s. Starting to see some low stratus
and fog forming in central TN which has been progged to continue
south and impact at least the northern half of the area. With
daytime heating, this should lift/dissipate by 15-16z. High temps
today will therefore depend on how far south the overnight stratus
layer sets up and when that burns off. Have kept the northern half a
bit cooler today to account for this. Overall, highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s. Similar conditions from the past two nights
will exist tonight with lows in the lower 50s.

The upper low will slowly move to the north on Saturday and then off
to the northeast Sunday night. This low will cause the cloud cover
forecast to be a bit tricky through the weekend. If the low is
farther south, that means more cloud cover. Right now it looks like
at least the northern half of the area will have some clouds through
Saturday and should be mostly sunny by Sunday. These lows can be
pesky though and I may have been a little optimistic with the skies.

Similarly, temps will also be impacted by the placement of the upper
low. As the low gradually moves north, heights should also rise.
This will bring highs Sat into the upper 70s/lower 80s and Sunday
into the lower/middle 80s. Lows will also rise Sat/Sun Nights into
the middle/upper 50s. Temps in the northern half of the area will be
slightly cooler due to the upper low placement.

As the upper low completely dissipates in the northeast on Monday,
weak ridging and surface high pressure builds in over the southeast.
This pattern holds until a surface low occludes over the northern
states and drags a cold front toward the area. This would be the
next chance of rain with the ECMWF being the wet solution. The GFS
is completely dry with the frontal passage. Both models are handling
the synoptic features and energy similarly but the GFS has Hurricane
Matthew much farther north than the ECMWF which is likely having a
drying effect over the area. The blends seem to be leaning towards
the wetter solution but this will need to be monitored.

Highs through the new work week will generally be in the middle to
upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s Monday night and into the lower
60s for the rest of the week.



For 12Z TAFs: A large upper low over central KY will continue to
rotate wrap arnd clouds, with mainly IFR ceilings, across the taf
sites thru 15z. Between 15z and 18z expect ceilings to rise to the
mvfr category. After 18z, vfr conditions returns across the taf
sites and also for the remainder of the fcst period.





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