Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 240704
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...A FEW/SCT BLOWOFF CI WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUNDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. NEW NAM
DATA SHOWS A CHC OF SOME SCT PCPN MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH VCSH SINCE INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT FOR TSRA ATTM.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  67  81  68 /  10  30  70  60
SHOALS        86  68  78  68 /  20  30  90  60
VINEMONT      84  66  80  67 /  10  30  70  60
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  80  67 /  10  20  70  60
ALBERTVILLE   84  66  82  66 /  10  20  70  60
FORT PAYNE    84  66  82  66 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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