Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 030820
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE BROUGHT BY A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL START OFF MILD BUT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURE BY
AFTERNOON. VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AND DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN
WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF SAVANNAH AS HIGH PRESSURE ZIPS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. COOL NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS SOUTH OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH. ABOVE THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO VEER RESULTING IN THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE 295K-300K LAYER...APPROXIMATELY
5000-8500 FEET ALOFT...WILL SPREAD PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. WHILE I FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME
RAIN...THE CHALLENGE MAY BE GETTING .01" TO MEASURE IN RAIN GAUGES
GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PUNCHING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NC...AND STREAMLINES SUGGEST THIS WILL FEED
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA. (FLORENCE AND MYRTLE BEACH MAY
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ESCAPE THIS DRY PUNCH.) RAIN EVAPORATING
INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL HELP ENHANCE THE COOL WEDGE...AND MAY PREVENT
THE FRONT TO JUMPING BACK TO THE NORTH QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. WHILE I HAVE WARMED FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I AM STILL
WELL BELOW THE GFS/ECMWF AND VERY CLOSE TO A 00Z NAM/SREF CONSENSUS
FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD OVERWHELM THE WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EVEN INLAND BY MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SET EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 60 EAST OF I-95 BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
BE LESS PREVALENT TONIGHT OWNING TO DRIER MID-LEVELS AND LESS
ISENTROPIC LIFT. A GROWING CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EXCEED WATER TEMPS BY 10 DEGREES. ON SOUTH WINDS THIS FOG
SHOULD SPREAD ONTO THE COAST WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEACH
COMMUNITIES. TYPICALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS FOG LIFTS INTO A LOW
STRATUS DECK BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT 1-2 MILES BEYOND THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WINTER TAKES A BIT OF A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE FOUND OFF THE WEST COAST IN A SETUP MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM
SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONE POTENTIAL
PROBLEM MAY BE ALONG CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE SEA FOG AND STRATUS WILL
BE LURKING DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. THE MODERATELY STRONG SSWRLY
FLOW MAY TRY TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS MUCH A LITTLE BIT INLAND CAPPING
THE WARMTH BY BRINGING IN A BROKEN STRATUS DECK ACCORDING TO WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL THOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. IT MAY BE TIME TO TRIM
FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES. CLOUDS OR NOT
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST AREAS
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME BUT ALSO
NUMBERS CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR! STRONG COLD
FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY NOW LOOKS A BIT SLOWER ESP ON THE WRF.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE IT SEEMS THAT THE
BEST BET FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF OR A FEW HOURS
AFTER FROPA. A LITTLE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AND ISO THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WE WILL EKE OUT ONE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ALTHOUGH WITH FROPA THEY WILL BE DROPPING
PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LACKLUSTER MAINLY BECAUSE THE FRONT
ARRIVES SO MUCH AHEAD OF ANY DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
WINTER ROARS BACK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...SOME
15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
BUT A BRISKLY CHILLY AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S NOWHERE TO BE FOUND AS MOST PLACES REMAIN CAPPED IN THE MID
40S AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEDGE WILL BE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT
STRENGTHEN. WHAT LITTLE WARM ADVECTION OCCURS MAY BE OFFSET BY
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. IN FACT GFS MOS NOW CAPPING HIGHS IN THE 40S
AGAIN. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD GET PUSHED OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AS THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WE MAY RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A COLD FRONT
NOW STALLING DOWN ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DAYBREAK. NE-E
WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG
THE COAST...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING SMALL
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LBT/FLO AIRPORTS BEFORE
08Z. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY SHOULD SEE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN WITH
INTERMITTENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR. STRATUS SHOULD LOWER BELOW
1000 FEET TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING
FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MARYLAND
HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND SAVANNAH. THIS FRONT
SHOULD STALL THIS MORNING...THEN WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY OFFSHORE. FAIRLY STRONG NE WINDS THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL AIR SURGE SOUTH OF THE HIGH SHOULD
ABATE AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHTER NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND SUNSET.

A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY COLD AFTER THE BRUTAL FEBRUARY WE
HAD...LOOK FOR AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AS DEWPOINTS EXCEED
THE WATER TEMPERATURES BY 10 DEGREES.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET WITH SOME 6-FOOTERS LIKELY
OCCURRING OUT NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS WINDS ABATE THE SEAS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS WE WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SOME LATE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY
MATERIALIZE. ALSO THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND PROBABLY NIGHT AS WELL
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SEA FOG AS THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH ON THURSDAY
LEADING TO A SHARP VEER AND LIKELY A CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
CONDITIONS.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY INITIALIZE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FLYING IN A MODERATELY STRONG N TO NE
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
REGIME AND ALL HEADLINES LIKELY DROP BY EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IF
NOT WASH OUT ENTIRELY. THE NNE FLOW WILL REMAIN HOWEVER, MAINTAINED
BY SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA





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