Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 191559
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1100 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast through the
weekend shifting off the coast by early next week, bringing a
warming trend and maintaining dry weather. A cold front will
bring increasing rain chances late Monday into Tuesday. Slightly
cooler temperatures will follow this front, but are expected to
remain at or above seasonable levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Friday...Only forecast update is to tweak the smoke
plume from the warehouse fire to our west, now showing up in the
0.87 micron band extending all the day into Columbus county. Though
the plume extends farther than though its source region seems to
have ceased as the fire may be nearly over with.   No other changes
to the forecast on this very quiet and finally seasonable day.
Discussion from 300 AM follows...

High pressure will migrate slowly across the Southeast through
tonight. The center will remain south, maintaining a light W-SW
flow. The flow aloft will remain fairly zonal, although a
shortwave will begin to move east from the western Gulf coast by
early Sat. This may throw a few clouds our way by the end of
this period, but overall expect mainly clear skies. The 850
temps will be on an upward trend in WAA reaching about 5 to 7C
this afternoon with a westerly downslope flow. Overall, plenty
of sunshine today will help temps rebound nicely, bringing them
back up toward normal, reaching mid 50s most places.

Dewpoint temps will climb a good 5 degrees by tonight, leaving
mid 20s most places. With clear skies and very light winds
tonight, expect temps to drop down between 25 and 30 most
places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...This weekend is going to feel amazing coming
after January temperatures that have so far averaged 7 to 8 degrees
below normal. Surface high pressure moving across Georgia on
Saturday will relocate a few hundred miles east of Cape Fear by late
Sunday. Light winds and gradual warm advection should allow temps to
rise into the 60s both days away from the beaches. The land-to-
marine temperature differences should become large enough to
generate a seabreeze both days. For those hoping to enjoy a warm day
on the beach, a January seabreeze is going to spoil your plans as
high temperatures on the sand could have trouble getting out of the
lower to middle 50s with all that cold water nearby.

An upper level low across South Texas will move eastward within the
southern branch of the jet and will pass just to our south on
Sunday. Some cirrus clouds could move across the area Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night ahead of this feature. Unusually weak
low-level baroclinicity plus ridging to the north of the upper low
should prevent any surface reflection from developing as the upper
system moves off the GA/FL coast Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough axis will shift off
the SE CONUS Sunday, along with associated mid-level cloudiness.
This will set the stage for a period of above normal temps to
continue through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Moisture will
begin to return in low-level southerly flow Monday, with the
possibility of some showers advecting in off the ocean during the
day. Consensus on timing of the frontal passage appears to be
Tuesday morning, and that will coincide with the highest PoPs during
the period. Models suggest there will be little cold air arriving
immediately behind the front, with temperatures on Tuesday still
rising to around 60. They will, however, drop back into the 50s for
Thursday due to height falls and surface winds becoming more
northerly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds will
continue from the west southwest. Little to no clouds expected.
Tonight, no fog expected. Winds at the boundary layer around 18 kts,
with an unfavorable moisture profile for even ground fog. Saturday,
sunny with clouds increasing but after end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR in scattered showers
Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday...No changes at
all so have left the previous discussion:

As of 300 AM Friday...High pressure will migrate slowly across the
Southeast with the center to the southwest of the waters leaving a
general W-SW flow across the waters. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kts
through the period with seas 2 to 3 ft. SW swells up to 10 sec will
dampen out through tonight as shorter period SW wind wave becomes
dominant.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...High pressure centered over Georgia Saturday
morning will slide east and out into the Atlantic during the
afternoon hours. This should maintain a westerly wind across the
Carolina coastal waters during the morning, but as inland
temperatures exceed 60 degrees during the day a seabreeze should
develop with nearshore wind directions becoming more southerly. A
similar pattern is expected on Sunday, but with the high building
northward closer to the Carolinas our overall wind speeds should be
less.

Seas on Saturday will be a combination of 10 second southeast swell
with short period wind waves. By Sunday the wind waves should
disappear leaving only the southeast swell.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Weak southeasterly flow on Monday will
increase to 15-20 knots by Tuesday night ahead of a cold front.
Scattered showers will be possible Monday moving south to north,
with increasing coverage along the cold front, which is
expected to move off the coast Tuesday morning. An offshore wind
after fropa on Tuesday looks to be relatively weak, generally
10 knots or less, in a relaxed gradient.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MBB/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...DL


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