Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 060554
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
154 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICAL EARLY MAY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
NC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H LOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS
THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE HAIL
OR GUSTY WINDS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID KNOCK OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN A LITTLE BIT AS MANY AREAS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CAPE HATTERAS EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PAST BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT AND LAPSE
RATES WILL STILL REMAIN STEEP. DO NOT EXPECT SAME ATMOSPHERE AS
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND BEST LIFT
SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF WITH IT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT LOW REMAINS CLOSE. THE
GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES. TEMPS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI BUT WILL WARM TO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SE RIDGING DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE
AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY...AND WHILE
GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION...BLOSSOMING OF UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS.
GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION (OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY)
WHILE THE ECM/CMC SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION AND WILL SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTH AND KEEP ANY
POP CONFINED OUT OF THE CWA.

THEREAFTER...HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
15C AS THICKNESSES RISE AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT MON-THU
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST. AS
THIS HEAT INCREASES...HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW...AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE LONG
TERM SO NATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL MAINTAIN BARELY
MENTIONABLE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...THEN
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SPINNING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OF NC...
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEARLY DUE N OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NC-VA
COAST AROUND DAYBREAK...AND OVER THE DELMARVA BY SUNSET...AND
THEN REMAINING IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT.

WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL AID IN MVFR STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDINESS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. THESE IMPULSES COMBINED WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION
LATER TODAY WILL IGNITE CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL FIRE BY MIDDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVE HOURS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...EXPIRED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AN HOUR EARLY. THE WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN
OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASING. LOWERED WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH
OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY HAS DROPPED SEAS BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS...HENCE THE SCEC CANCELLATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY WEAK SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIMITED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE
W-SW SAT NIGHT...REMAINING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME.
THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS GREATEST
SEAS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT
OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AND ITS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED WITH
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A WAVE
SPECTRUM FORMED THROUGH A SOUTHERLY 4-5 SEC WAVE AND A SE 8-9 SEC
WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/RJD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.