Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291312
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
912 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical
system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for
most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there
will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will
approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Sunday...Tropical Storm Bonnie has been downgraded to
a Tropical Depression. All warnings have been dropped and other
products revised as necessary. Wind is no longer considered a
threat and area obs show top surface readings in the 10 to 15 kt
range. However, heavy rain is still a threat for today and tonight
as TD Bonnie makes its slow trek northeast along the Carolina
coastlines. In addition, SPC has dropped the tornado threat from
our area.

High precipitable water values, around 2 inches in deep east to
southeast flow will continue to necessitate high pops. The
potential remains for bouts of heavy rain in waves of showers and
a few thunderstorms streaming in from off the Atlantic. This may
cause localized ponding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression before the
start of the period. The system or its remnants will be in the area
through the period as it moves slowly up along the Carolina coast.
The current forecast track has it lifting north of the Cape Fear
area Tue night. This will keep the weather unsettled, but drier air
and subsidence will eventually reach the area. Thus, would expect a
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout Mon with
coverage perhaps shrinking inland on Tue, but still high along the
coast. We are still forecasting total rainfall amounts in the 2 to 3
inch range although higher amounts will be possible.

Thick cloud cover Mon will be shrinking from W to E Tue and Tue
night and this will result in slightly warmer temps inland on Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The moisture directly associated with
Bonnie should be out of the picture by Wednesday. Sufficient
moisture will remain for scattered showers and storms however
especially if some upper troughiness remains behind. Rain chances
should arguably wind up just a bit higher over northern zones. No
more mid level trough on Thursday but a poorly defined surface
pressure pattern will remain. The sea breeze and outflow
boundaries should still manage to produce appreciable coverage of
mainly diurnal storms. The former should make good progress
inland. Rain chances then rise a bit Friday and maybe moreso
Saturday as the next upper trough and surface cold front approach
from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12Z...Difficult to nail down the TAFs today as
ceilings/visibilities will be all over the place, predominately
MVFR. Low pressure will continue to linger to our south, giving us a
nice plume of tropical moisture throughout the day. Water vapor
indicates the potential for us getting dry slotted, however any
solar insolation will only help to fuel convection. Look for
predominately easterly flow, with somewhat of a southeasterly
component this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather through Thursday with possible
SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Sunday...The Tropical Storm Warning has been
cancelled as Bonnie has been downgraded to a depression. Have
hoisted Small Craft advisories for all waters into the evening
hours. latest obs show 5 to 7 ft seas for much of our area

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression by the
start of the period. The depression or its remnants will slowly
lift north along the upper South Carolina coast and the southeast
North Carolina coast...perhaps lifting north of the Cape Fear
waters Tue night. This will keep showers and thunderstorms across
the waters for much of the period. South winds will hold across
the waters Mon and Mon night. As what is left of Bonnie lifts
slowly away from the area Tue and Tue night...winds should come
around to a more NW or N direction. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft Mon,
subsiding to 3 to 4 ft by Tue and then 2 to 3 ft Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Decreasing wind and seas through the period
as tropical system moves off to the north and east. Wednesday`s
wind direction forecast may need some refining as there is still
guidance that stalls the system very near the area until then. Not
so by Thursday at which time the system`s exit will bring a west
wind that will then back to southerly as west Atlantic high
pressure takes hold.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB



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