Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291016
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
616 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move eastward along the Gulf Coast today, then
off the Florida east coast tonight. This will bring a warming trend
with 80 degree temperatures expected inland Sunday through Tuesday.
Shower chances will arrive Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that
should sweep off the coast Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An impressive shortwave moved across the eastern Carolinas
overnight. In its wake, an upper ridge extending through the U.S.
and Canadian Plains will move eastward while supporting surface high
pressure along the Gulf Coast. This will ensure dry offshore winds
today and tonight.

The coldest 850 mb temps (+1 to +3C) behind last night`s shortwave
are moving overhead pretty much now. Warm advection will begin later
this morning and with full sunshine highs are expected to reach the
lower 70s inland and upper 60s along the beaches. Wind gusts during
the deepest mixing this afternoon could reach 25 mph, especially
across southeast North Carolina.

A light southwest breeze is expected tonight as the center of the
high moves off the Florida east coast. Lows of 45-50 are expected,
warmest on the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Gorgeous weekend up ahead with temperatures on the rise. An upper
ridge in the western GOMEX amplifies and moves eastward, which will
contribute to heights rising aloft. Meanwhile, offshore high
pressure will slowly move further away from the eastern seaboard,
but will still help to provide plenty of subsidence. Highs Saturday
shoot up well into the mid-to-upper 70s inland, lower 70s at the
coast. Temperatures continue to increase into the lower 80s inland
by Sunday (mid 70s at the coast). This will provide a decent
seabreeze, given the thermal gradient between land and water.
Climatologically speaking, these high temperatures look more like
mid-May than they do late March/early April.

Lows Saturday night in the low-to-mid 50s. Lows Sunday night
near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very unseasonably warm weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with
some high temperatures inland approaching the mid 80s. Ironically
enough, looks like the high temperature records are safe from being
tied or broken. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s.

Next rain chances start to perk up Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front. GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement on the frontal passage,
which appears to enter the local forecast area by Wednesday
morning/afternoon, and then push offshore by late Wednesday
evening. Even so, there are a few timing differences,
particularly as the front approaches the coast, which is the
norm around here. Regardless, the trends show increasing
confidence in some scattered showers and thunderstorms from
Tuesday evening to late Wednesday. Will pay attention to these
trends over the next few days.

Clouds and rain suppress temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the
low-to-mid 70s. Cold air advection turns on after the frontal
passage Wednesday night, with lows dipping into the mid 40s. Highs
Thursday somewhere in the mid 60s as the forecast dries out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected over the coming 24 hours. Moderate
westerly winds may gust to 20 kt this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Deepening low pressure continues to move away
from the Mid Atlantic coast while high pressure crawls eastward
along the Gulf Coast. This will place the Carolinas within a
zone of moderate offshore winds today. Directions this morning
are generally northerly but should back around to the west this
afternoon and then southwest tonight as the center of the high
moves off the Florida east coast.

The Small Craft Advisory will come down with this morning`s
forecast package as even gusts should remain below 25 knots
during the modest wind surge early this morning. There should be
a period with light winds (10 knots or less) late this morning,
however wind speeds should increase toward 15 knots again
during the afternoon hours.

Saturday through Tuesday...WSW winds early Saturday become more
purely SW in the afternoon. Winds increase in speed at this point,
and gusts appear to peak above 25kts more often in this forecast
cycle than what was previously shown. Local wind probabilistic
guidance shows very stout chances of more of the same, but with this
being a pretty new idea, I elected to not issue a Small Craft
Advisory at this time. Need to see more consistency in the guidance,
as most deterministic models haven`t come around to the wind
thresholds yet. If we need to issue an advisory in future forecast
cycles, it would probably be pretty brief, say, Saturday and
Saturday night. From there, the southwesterly wind trend locks in
through Tuesday, with sustained winds varying a bit from 10-15kts to
up to 20kts at times. These winds escalate more robustly by late
Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. Seas remain at mostly 3-
4ft, with a few 5ft waves possible 20nm from shore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB


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