Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 272242
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 642 PM FRIDAY...BULK OF RAINFALL AND COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITH
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS REMAIN POISED WEST OF THE AREA EDGING
THIS WAY. A VORTICITY CENTER CRADLED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL SCOOT ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC BETWEEN 6Z/2AM-12Z/8AM
AND WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COLD-CORE SHOWERS AS AN H7
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE POTENCY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
WARRANT INCLUSION OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS AND A CLOSER LOOK
WILL BE TAKEN IN 00Z MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE IF THUNDER SHOULD BE
CARRIED OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED AND NOT ROOTED TO THE SURFACE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING IN THE 30S. TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO A
SLIGHT DEEPENING OF COLUMN MOISTURE DURING TRANSIT. BRISK NW WINDS
TO ACCOMPANY THIS PASSAGE/FEATURE...AND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR
THE 28TH DAY OF MARCH...WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY. FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ONLY...AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE 40S
BENEATH A LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE SHARP 500
MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE FALLING TO -6 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS. AT THE SURFACE
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTING TO REACH 27
DEGREES F INLAND TO AROUND FREEZE ON THE BEACH STRANDS. THUS A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCES FOR A
HARD FREEZE APPEAR LIKELY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS LATE NIGHT SATURDAY
INTO THE 1ST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND THE
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE BEACH STRANDS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPRING-LIKE PATTERN
UPCOMING FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...DRIVING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...SEPARATED BY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT ONLY LIMITED POST-FRONTAL CAA. THUS...TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DISPLACED BY RIDGING...AND EVEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY...AND THEN PARKS OFFSHORE WED-FRI. INCREASING AIR-MASS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THU/FRI AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT AS AN EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 22Z...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...HOWEVER RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE START AND END TIME OF THE LOW CEILINGS SINCE
MOS GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EMERGING MAINLY
DURING THE PRE- DAWN SAT HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED
SFC PG WILL COMBINE TO KEEP WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH NO LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 642 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS.

PCPN VIA LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER THE CFP DURING
THIS EVENING. PCPN WILL BECOME SPOTTY IN NATURE BY THE PRE-DAWN
SAT HRS. AS FOR WINDS...INITIAL CAA SURGE AND TIGHTENED SFC PG TO
YIELD WINDS BECOMING NNW-N AFTER FROPA AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS UTILIZED FROM WAVEWATCH3...WITH LOCAL SWAN MODEL
CONTINUING TO UNDER-PREFORM OF LATE. OVERALL...SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO
RUN 3 TO 5 FT ILM SC WATERS...AND 3 TO 6 FT ILM NC WATERS. AVERAGE
PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFF
THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE BLOWING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
FALL FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 2 FEET BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS GREET MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS WILL BE COMMON...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY
EVE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS...BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN THESE
WILL FALL FURTHER ON THE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-15 KTS LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO 2-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/MRR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.