Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 172339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATOCUMULUS IS DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED IN
THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS
THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED
ON BIAS TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INHERITED TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONT TO ALLOW A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
AVIATION WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY
KLUK/KILN...BUT ALL SITES HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG LATER ON. CONTINUED WITH PVS
FORECAST IDEA OF SOCKING IN KLUK TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD RIVER VALLEY DRAINAGE EVENT IF SKIES CAN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS EXPECTED. ALSO BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN AT KILN A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PVS FORECAST BASED ON WINDS TURNING NELY WITH TIME AND
DECREASING TO 3KTS OR SO...WHICH BOOSTS PROBABILITIES OF FOG BASED
ON CLIMO DISTRIBUTIONS HERE. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHALLOW AND BURN
OFF BY 13Z OR SO...WITH DIURNAL SCT CUMULUS DVPMNT LOOKING LIKELY
LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON UNDER NELY BREEZES OF 7-8KTS AT
PEAK HEATING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...BINAU






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