Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 051809
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW
ENDS.

PREVIOUS...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR





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