Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 292304
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface high pressure will work into the area for the day on
Tuesday. A cold front will approach and move through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated to scattered convection will be in place across generally
south of Interstate 70 through early this evening. Thunderstorms
are expected to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Dry
conditions can be expected for the overnight hours. With the decrease
in cloud cover and light winds overnight expect river valley fog
to develop overnight. Added in patchy valley fog overnight.
Elsewhere patchy fog will be possible, however do not think that
visibilities will be low enough to include in the forecast at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak flow will be present across the area on Tuesday. Went with
dry conditions for the day on Tuesday. Some of the models are
trying to hint at some light activity working into northwest
portions of the forecast area. Believe this is overdone and that
drier air will keep any activity from developing.

Bring precipitation chances into the region late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a frontal boundary approaches and moves through.
Some residual activity will linger into the evening hours with the
upper level disturbance. Dry conditions are expected by the end of
the short term period. In addition cooler temperatures will work
into the region Wednesday night with some locations across the
north dropping down into the 50s overnight Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough across the eastern part of the continent at the
beginning of the period will translate east by the end of the week.
This will allow an upper ridge to build in over the weekend and
continue into early next week. At the surface...high pressure will
prevail through the period with a dry air mass in place.
Temperatures will be below normal late in the week and then warm
through the weekend and into  Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Just a few showers are lingering southwest of KCVG/KLUK but these
are pushing southwest and will not affect those sites. Otherwise,
with the loss of daytime heating, remaining cu field will
continue to dissipate through mid evening with mainly just some
high level cloudiness expected overnight. With light winds, expect
to see some patchy MVFR to locally IFR fog development later
tonight, mainly at KLUK and possibly KCVG/KILN. A dry airmass will
be in place through the day on Tuesday, resulting in VFR
conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL



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