Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
127 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through
Wednesday morning. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio
will bring showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High
pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday.


Some mid and high level cloudiness will continue to spill down
into the area through this afternoon in northwest flow aloft. This
combined with some weak low level CAA, should help keep highs in
the mid 50s north to lower 60s in the far south.


Tonight, mid and high clouds will continue to linger across the
region. The ECMWF develops some light showers and north western
sections tonight as it increases isentropic lift across a
developing warm front. It is the outlier, so will keep the fa dry.
With some cloud cover tonight, temperatures should be a little
warmer, only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

On Wednesday, the H5 s/w will swing from the plain into the Ohio
Valley. It will push a compact low pressure center eastward with
it. The fa will be warm sectored and should be dry on Wednesday.
There will be a large variance in highs across the region.
Temperatures across the extreme nrn counties of West Central and
Central Ohio will only reach the mid 50s, but was you head south,
temperatures will warm quickly. Highs in nrn KY will be around 70.

Pcpn with the low will finally reach the area Wednesday night.
Latest run of the models is showing very limited instability, so
have backed off on the mention of thunder. Also, it appears that
the models are showing a weakening trend with the pcpn as it
works e Wednesday night. Kept likely pops across the north, but
tightened up the gradient and lower PoPs across the srn counties
to 20 to 30 percent.

This system is looking more progressive, so tighten up the
backedge of the pcpn, moving it e of the region by 18Z Thursday.
Temperatures will recover some, reaching the mid 50s in the north
and the lower 60s in the south.


Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week,
offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs On Friday to
range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south.

Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next
system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air
advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of
ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low
chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some
with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south.

Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have
limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower
north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the
middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for
next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast
to the lower 60s southwest.


Surface high pressure will push off to the east tonight. In
northwest flow aloft, expect to see some mid and high level
clouds continue to stream in across the region tonight into
Wednesday. The combination of the increasing clouds and perhaps
surface winds staying up a bit overnight should help limit fog
development. Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF
period but suppose some patchy valley fog is not out of the
question depending on just how fast the mid level clouds thicken
up later tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday night.




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