Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 070755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. FRONTAL PROGRESSION BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD STARTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND SUSTENANCE WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CARRYING DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 6 PM.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
CONTAINING CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOW OF ABOUT
30 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BEFORE PRECIP PUTS A
DAMPER ON DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FIRST SURGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MOVES EAST AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME.
CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST.

ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IS INDICATED
FOR THURSDAY. THOUGH THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
EFFECTS OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING IN HWO.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A REGIME OF CLOUDS...
PRECIP AND OCCASIONAL COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 NORTH TO 80 SOUTH. THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT STARTS TO
RETROGRADE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED BUT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT SOME VESTIGE OF IT COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
WHICH WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A LOW INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START
OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY TO
START DROPPING BACK ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST SWRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF FOG TO SOME PATCHY
BR WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH DOWN INTO
OHIO TONIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN
WITH SCTD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE A MENTION
OF VCTS AND THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD
FOR CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS.

WINDS FROM THE SW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR





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