Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 212013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing a few
showers. Cold and dry weather will arrive Wednesday with high
pressure. Dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of this
week as the high shifts to the East Coast, while temperatures
increase in the southerly flow behind the high.


Cold front pushed by a northwest flow aloft is reaching Western
Indiana. The front will progress across Indiana to the ILN area
this evening, before moving east overnight. Showers developing
along and behind the front will affect mainly northern locations
closer to the bulk of forcing and moisture associated with this
system. Places south of the Ohio River may see no precip, while
the far north is likely to have a few showers, producing up to
a tenth of an inch of rainfall. A few snow flakes could mix in
toward the end of the event as readings drop toward freezing,
before falling a few more degrees to overnight lows in the upper
20s to low 30s by 6 am.

Winds that have gusted over 20 knots will begin to subside this
evening as mixing decreases.


A cold and dry airmass associated with high pressure extending
from Northern Mexico to the Great Lakes will provide dry weather
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model sounding profiles show
mostly sunny/mostly clear skies, with sky cover consisting of a
few to sct cumulus on Wednesday that should decrease by late
afternoon under further subsidence and drying of the airmass,
followed by cirrus Wednesday night forming ahead of a weak
short wave. Even with abundant sunshine, high temperatures
rising only into the upper 30s will be about 12 degrees below


High pressure extending across the area at the beginning of the
period will move off to the east. Temperatures will rebound a bit,
although probably not quite as much as guidance suggests. As the
next system approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten. Gusty
southerly winds will bring temperatures back closer to normal on

A cold front will cross the area on Saturday. Moisture is rather
limited, thus the chance of precipitation is minimal. There will
likely be enough insolation during the day to offset initial cold
air advection, so daytime readings should be similar to Friday.
Colder air mass will move in for the beginning of next week when
high pressure builds in. Temperatures will once again moderate late
in the period as high pressure moves east and another cold front


VFR to start as high pressure departs east. That may change as
a cold front now over NW Indiana crosses TAF sites tonight.
Models predict MVFR ceilings for a few hours early tonight along
and behind the front as showers develop. CVG and LUK may escape
those conditions being farther from the bulk of moisture and
forcing to the north. A return to VFR is forecast by Wednesday
morning as high pressure builds back in from the west.

Winds gusting over 20 knots this afternoon will start to subside
this evening as mixing decreases with loss of daytime heating.
Direction will shift from southwest to northwest with frontal
passage, while speeds drop below 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




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