Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 010812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GETS KICKED EAST AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING H5 LOW. ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AS A SFC WAVE WORKS UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CAPES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. BETTER
COVERAGE SHOULD START IN THE SRN COUNTIES WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND...BUT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SPREAD
NWD AS THE SFC LOW WORKS THROUGH IN THE AFTN.

THERE COULD BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PUSHING
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER
60S HOWEVER.

H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN
MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70
SOUTH.

DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY.

TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH.  READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH KDAY EVEN
LIFR. SOME SITES HAVE BROKEN TO VFR BUT THIS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WIDESPREAD. GFS/ NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ALSO STARTED TO
TAPER OFF A BIT THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
TO PULL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAK AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY THIS
MORNING.

IFR CIGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT LATE MORNING TURNING TO
MVFR AND THEN FINALLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/ NAM SOUNDINGS IN
GENERAL SUPPORT THIS WITH COLUMBUS FORECASTED TO BREAK OUT FIRST.
CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF PRECIP IS LOW AS HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
DONE A POOR JOB THUS FAR CAPTURING ON GOING PRECIP IN INDIANA/
ILLINOIS. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIGHT WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES... WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT... BUT
THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO AN EARLIER REDEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT WOULD SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 20Z AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ NAM/
RAP ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING THOUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUPPORT THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAINES



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