Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 010849
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST AS WELL BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE GREATER THAN FRIDAY.
APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MUCH OF THIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. STILL
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MOS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART
WITH TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT ANY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD KEEPING THE REGION DRY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS
WEST CENTRAL OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATED A
MORE ENERGETIC AND DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THESE TWO
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE STAYED WITH FLATTER GFS/GEFS
MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE
SOME STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN
COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KILN ARE DISSIPATING AND THEREFORE HAVE VCSH
MENTION IN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF AND THEN KEEP TAF SITES
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TAF SITES WILL START OUT VFR
HOWEVER FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KILN. TAF SITES
WILL RETURN TO VFR DURING THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE A VCTS MENTION AT ALL BUT KCVG FOR AWHILE
FRIDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY AT KCVG APPEARS MORE ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT OF THE KCVG TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





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