Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 291052
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today providing
dry weather and decreasing clouds. Low pressure will push into
the region on Thursday, offering showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the work week. High pressure will settle in
over the weekend returning dry conditions and near seasonable
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
West-northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure
building se across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Latest IR satellite shows considerable low clouds across the
region but some holes. Numerical model solutions keep the low
level moisture trapped below a low level inversion through most
of the morning. These clouds to diminish from northeast to
southwest late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
around one category above normal with highs ranging from the
mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridge to build over the region tonight ahead of
upper low developing in the central plains. Models continue a
little slower with precipitation which looks reasonable in this
amplified flow pattern. Will allow for an increase in clouds
late. Mild Lows tonight will range from the upper lows extreme
northeast to near 50 southwest.
Mid/upper level flow backs as low pressure tracks from the
central plains into the Mid MS Vly Thursday. In waa pattern a
few showers will be possible early Thursday. Best instability
stays to our sw, but an axis of instability works into the
southwest Thursday afternoon. There appears to be a window with
the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon into
evening, when 50-55 kt low level jet will provide good axis of
lift, which coincides with this instability. 0-6 km Bulk shear
suggests organized storms possible and low level shear is
favorable but LCL heights are high. Will mention this severe
potential over ILN/s southwest counties in HWO product. The main
threats at this time are damaging winds and large hail. Warm
temperatures to continue Thursday with highs from the lower 60s
far north to the mid/upper 70s far south.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper ridge featuring above normal geopotential heights will
generally be in place through the period. However, the ridge will be
interrupted by a couple of vigorous troughs that will produce
Potent low pressure will be moving to Indiana Thursday night,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible in an environment containing ample moisture,
instability and wind fields. Though severe weather chances will
diminish Friday as the vertically stacked low tracks slowly to the
Central Appalachians, showers will linger in the moist cyclonic
circulation around the low pressure system.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is indicated for Saturday and
Sunday, resulting in a dry weekend. The next area of low pressure
due to arrive Monday is forecast to bring more showers and
thunderstorms, with showers lingering on Tuesday behind the low
Above normal temperatures are expected for the most part, with highs
generally in the 60s. Saturday may be the exception, when highs are
forecast to be slightly below normal, in the mid and upper 50s under
modest cold advection.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low level moisture trapped below an inversion around 850 MB
continue to result in lingering MVFR ceilings. Satellite
imagery shows a few breaks but these should be short lived.
Also, there may be some brief IFR CIGS below 1000 feet,
especially at KDAY early this morning.
Will continue to follow consensus of model solutions which
holds onto MVFR CIGS through the morning into the early
afternoon. As surface high pressure builds in from the north
clouds will very slowly improve from ne to sw with VFR
conditions expected later this afternoon. VFR conditions will
continue tonight with only an increase in high level clouds.
Have added a mention of VCSH at 30 hour KCVG TAF Thursday
morning, as moisture increases ahead of next low.
Northeast winds around 10 kts today will become east tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Thursday
into Friday evening along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR
to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.