Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 280529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SNOW FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN A
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION OF HOW
QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS MID CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING IN EARNEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MID CLOUDS WITH IT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FALLING
OUT OF THIS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL. EXPECT A SMALL DROP
OFF IN READINGS FRIDAY EVENING...MORE SO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. THEN STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY
RISING READINGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE
MORNING AND STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME.  COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  DUE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN
END MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.  CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND WENT
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 2000-4000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS...EVENTUALLY ENDING THE THREAT
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE STILL EVIDENT ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR...BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO END SOON...LIKELY BEFORE 12Z.

WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT FROM WNW TO SSW...INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WHILE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

ANOTHER AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





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