Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOMEWHAT MORE ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS
WEAK...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...






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