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000
FXUS62 KJAX 220745
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN SLY FLOW
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. RADAR SHOWS ONLY
CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEYOND OUR WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM.
HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS SHOW REDEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS ASHORE AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
WITH A STACKED LOW TO OUR WEST NEAR MOBILE TO NEW ORLEANS...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR SEEPING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
WHILE THE NAM KEEP PRECIP WATER VALUES HIGH. WITH PWATS REMAINING
NEAR 2 INCHES OR ABOVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EVEN THE SMALLER SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS TO BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT WITH FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TO LOUISIANA WHILE A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZES.
THE SEABREEZES WILL MERGE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONG AND LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE THERE. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100.

.LONG TERM (THURS-MON)...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE VCSH
AT CRG. FREQUENCY OF COASTAL SHRA WILL PICK UP AROUND SUNRISE AND
EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVE VCSH AFTER 13Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN AND FADE BY SUNSET. WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL NOT MENTION TS AFTER
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LOW IS WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A SFC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH WED...WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW LATE NIGHT
BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. SOUTH TO SW NOCTURNAL
SURGES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY. RIP CURRENT RISK
LOW TO MODERATE ON WED WITH ESE SWELLS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  95  73 /  50  40  40  30
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  40
JAX  88  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  40
SGJ  86  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  70  50  40  30
OCF  90  72  93  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON