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000
FXUS62 KJAX 051854
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
154 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...RECORD DAILY HIGH OF 82 TIED THUS FAR AT JAX...

...WARM DAYS AND FOGGY NIGHTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MON...

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUN/...

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDGE 1000-500 MB AXIS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLOW WHILE WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE A VERY
LOW 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR INLAND GA ZONES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEW PTS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS EVIDENCED BY A CUMULUS FIELD OVER CENTRAL FL. THE MEAN SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WAS ACROSS OUR FL ZONES. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE ONLY CATCH WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF NEAR 20 KTS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE
WHICH FAVORS A MORE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS EVENT VERSES DENSE
GROUND FOG. AT THIS TIME DEFINITELY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE CONSIDERED THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LINGERING
RIDGE AXIS...SO ADVERTISED AREAS OF DENSE FOG INLAND AS WELL AS OVER
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WERE WATER TEMPS NEARLY EQUAL THE DEW
PTS. BY EVENING...WE COULD START SEEING A RESURRECTION OF THE
NEARSHORE FOG BANK WITH GRADUAL DRIFT INLAND. AS THE STRATUS
CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM THE SSE...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS MAY
ACTUALLY MORPH THE FOG EVENT INTO AN ADVECTIVE TYPE FOG...WHILE
INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER SE GA MAY HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER THESE ZONES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO MEAN LAYER
SSW FLOW...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOW 60S
COAST.

FRI & WEEKEND...NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES FRI WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. BY SAT A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL ZONE WILL NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASIN BEFORE BUMPING INTO THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE HOLDING OVER CENTRAL FL. RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR SE GA CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM 20% NEAR THE FL/GA STATE-LINE TO 40% NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER SAT AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN SUN WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY FORMING OFFSHORE
AND BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AS DEBRIS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE WITH A DECENT
40-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
NIGHT-TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH ONLY A MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING OVER SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE
FL WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM THE GOMEX COULD NOSE
INLAND. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY TAPPER OFF OVER SE GA FROM THE NW TUE
NIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OVER CENTRAL FL DUE TO THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL PUSH WITH THE SYSTEM. THUS CONTINUED WITH LOW
RAIN 20-30% CHANCES OVER NE FL ZONES AND COASTAL SE GA WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES THE FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH LIKELY BEGINS TO
FORM OFFSHORE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER OUR S FL ZONES
TUE-THU WITH LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND TO 50S NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND COAST. FREEZE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN ANTICIPATE LOWERING
CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ROTATES NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PER THE NAM12 BUFR SOUNDING INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO 20-25 KTS...SO ANTICIPATED MOSTLY
STRATUS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WATER TEMPS IN
THE LOW 60S...STILL THINK THAT MOISTURE WILL SATURATE NEAR GROUND
LEVEL. AT THIS TIME ADVERTISED PREVAILING MVFR FOR INLAND SITES BY
03Z...WITH LIFR FOR SSI AND CRG AS EARLY AS 02Z WHERE MARINE LAYER
WILL START SHIFTING INLAND TRAILING THE SEA BREEZE. ONLY INDICATED
TEMPO LIFR FOR JAX...GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN 10-14Z FRI MORNING BASED
ON SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY BE SINCE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHT. SSW WINDS INCREASE
MON & TUE TO NEAR 15-20 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  81  61  75 /  20  10  10  40
SSI  61  76  62  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  60  80  61  77 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  62  79  64  75 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  58  82  60  79 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  83  61  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/HESS/GUILLET