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000
FXUS62 KJAX 030838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
338 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...

...WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM DUE TO
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO FORM DURING THE
DAWN AND MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT MOVES MOVES TO THE SE AND
SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST
BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS OF
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ANY DENSE FOG THAT MANAGES TO GET GOING WILL
BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG SURFACE HIGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE WHICH SETS A RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO SE TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND HEATING WHICH MAY HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
WARMEST READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
NE FL WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG TO FORM AS THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND A
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER
WATERS OF BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AND SOUTHERLY WHICH
WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST.
FOR NOW HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND BE NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING AN INITIAL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AS BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY AFTN...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...WITH MAINLY 70S COAST. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE...JAX 86 IN 1997...GNV 89 IN 1997...AND
AMG 86 IN 1961.

THE FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SE
GA LATE. EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA THURSDAY MORNING
CROSSING NE FL THURSDAY AFTN...SAGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETTING STRETCHED OUT AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL
APPROACH/CROSSING. GFS TRIES TO POOL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THURSDAY AFTN ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN ABOVE LIMITATIONS...WILL
KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY AS THE
COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH THE LATE DAY FRONTAL
CROSSING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR SE GA...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OF 40-45 FOR SE GA...WITH MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL TROUGH WITH
MODERATE/STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW WEAKENING SUNDAY AND BECOMING MORE N/NW. BY
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W/NW. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL KEEP MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LESSER...BUT STILL MAINLY CHANCE POPS WILL PREVAIL FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE CHILLIEST DAY GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FROM I-10
NORTHWARD...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH. A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG SLOW TO FORM NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE SE THIS
MORNING THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO FORM THERE AS WELL.
HAVE VLIFR AT GNV TIL 15Z...THEN VFR AT AROUND 16Z. FOR THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS HAVE OCNL IFR TIL 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE
RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING TO SE TODAY AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL HELP SET UP AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOME OF WHICH BE DENSE NEAR SHORE. WINDS INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN
PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LIKELY MET LATE THU THRU FRI.

RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL NECESSITATE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK ALSO
APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  61  83  61 /  20  10   0  20
SSI  67  58  71  59 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  78  59  83  62 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  72  59  77  61 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  81  60  84  60 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  82  61  85  59 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA