Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
837 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...There was a main convective boundary that came and met
up with the east coast sea breeze west or around of the I-95
corridor earlier this evening. Since then the east coast seabreeze
had moved into the the highway 301 where there is some residual
showers with embedded thunderstorms. With the loss of daytime
heating the atmosphere will be increasingly stable with showers
decreasing to near nil between 900 and 1000 pm. Coastal showers
may develop south of Ponte Vedra during the pre-dawn hours through
daybreak into the very early daylight hours Sunday. At the surface,
the ridge will shift northward through Sunday, with low level
flow becoming easterly. A surface boundary will remain across
southeast Georgia through Sunday. A surface trough was moving
through the Bahamas and will move across south Florida and into
central Florida on Sunday. The region will remain on the subsident
side of the trough through the day. This combined with the
subsidence aloft due to ridging building in from the east will
lead to lower rain chances on Sunday. The best chance of
showers/storms will be along the surface boundary across southeast
Georgia into the Suwannee Valley, with only 20-30% chance
elsewhere. It will be hot on Sunday with highs in the low to mid
90s, except upper 80s to near 90 at the beaches due to the onshore
flow. Heat indices will be in the 100-107F.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions at most terminals this evening.
KGNV has possible MVRF restrictions through 01z from decaying showers/storms
moving southward the next hour. VFR conditions are forecast
overnight. Low stratus and patchy fog is possible over Cecil Field
terminal between 08z and 1230z. VFR conditions most of the morning
daylight hours. Showers are possible during the pre-dawn hours
into tomorrow morning for the KSGJ as higher moisture begins to
return from the southeast. Brief period of restrictions during
the afternoon for terminals that receive stronger thunderstorms.
Looks like KVQQ and KGNV will have the best chances of convective
activity as east coast seabreeze pushes most thunderstorm
activity west of highway 301 all the way to the I-75 corridor
during the mid to late afternoon.


The surface ridge axis will shift north tonight and Sunday. The
surface ridge will remain northeast of the region early next week.
A frontal boundary will then shift into the southeast by the
middle of the week, and the ridge will shift back to the south

Rip Currents: Low risk through Sunday.


AMG  74  94  75  92 /  10  40  10  40
SSI  79  90  79  88 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  75  92  76  89 /  10  30  20  40
SGJ  75  90  77  87 /  10  50  30  40
GNV  73  93  74  91 /  20  30  20  40
OCF  74  94  75  91 /  30  30  20  30




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