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000
FXUS62 KJAX 221840
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Heat Indices near 105 on Friday with less storm activity...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Friday/...
Rest of this Afternoon/Evening...Lingering moist airmass with
PWATS near 2 inches will continue the threat of scattered showers
and storms mainly over inland areas between the I-95 and I-75
corridors of NE FL/SE GA as the sea breezes move inland from both
coasts. High Pressure ridging and warm air aloft will suppress the
intensity of the storms but a few with heavy rainfall, gusty
winds and frequent lightning still possible with mergers this
evening as they drift off to the north at 10-15 mph. Activity
should fade after sunset over inland NE FL then end by midnight.

Overnight...Drier airmass aloft will continue to slowly filter in
from the south around the Wrn Atlc ridge and expect mainly mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies with a few high clouds at times. Lows
still above normal and muggy in the lower to middle 70s inland and
upper 70s along the coast.

Friday...Wrn Atlc Ridge across the region will rotate a rather dry
airmass aloft northward into NE FL and coastal SE GA with PWATS of
1.5" or less and this combined with ridging/warm air aloft should
just about shut down the Atlc Coast Sea Breeze Convection with
rainfall chances across NE FL/coastal SE GA less than 20% while
the old moisture axis will be shunted further NW into inland SE GA
and the Suwannee River Valley of North FL where scattered
afternoon/evening storms will be possible. Main story tomorrow
will be the heat/humidity as temps inland soar into the lower to
middle 90s inland/upper 80s at the coast and support heat indices
of 100-105 for NE FL and peak values around 105 degrees across
inland SE GA.

.SHORT TERM /Friday Night through Saturday Night/...
Strong east-west upper ridge over FL Sat/Sat night...with subsidence
limiting coverage of sea breeze convection. May also see a few showers
or t-storms affect our far northern counties in s-ctrl GA with weak
surface trough approaching from NW. Hot conditions Sat with high temps
in lwr-mid 90s inland...around 90 coast...low temps lwr-mid 70s inland...
mid-upr 70s coast.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
East-west upper ridge over the area Sunday gets suppressed southward
as strong shortwave digs SE toward mid-Atlantic states Mon-Tue.
Model guidance suggests an increased rain chances this period as
weak cold front moves across forecast area with high pressure
buiding further N across OH valley region. Latest forecast will
show higher pops spreading southward during the period. Front stalls/
washes out over our southern counties...with guidance suggesting
precip chances Wed-Fri confined along and south of I-10 corridor.

Slightly lower temps expected Wed-Fri...with high temps in the mid-upr 80s
and low temps in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered Convection pushing inland will support VCSH at
SSI/CRG/SGJ until about 21z otherwise VCTS at JAX/VQQ/GNV until
around 00z. Overall mainly VFR conds except for possible MVFR
conds if any of the shower/storm activity directly impacts the
terminals mainly at inland sites. VFR with a few high clouds
tonight. Some lower level stratus possible towards sunrise 09-12z
friday morning but have left out of the forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow around 15 knots with seas 3-5 ft through tonight.
A slight increase is possible Friday into Saturday to 15-20 knots
and SCEC headlines may be required briefly at times.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk in the sideshore southerly flow and
afternoon SE sea breezes. Breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Gainesville /KGNV/ has received 14.24" rainfall so far this month
which currently ranks 3rd all-time for the month of June. The
all-time record is 16.34" set in 2012 (mostly due to TS Debby).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10
SSI  77  86  78  90 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  73  92  74  93 /  20  10   0  20
SGJ  74  89  75  90 /  20  10   0  20
GNV  72  93  73  93 /  50  10  10  30
OCF  72  93  73  91 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Hess/Nelson