Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 160602
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIP EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DIMINISHED. SHWRS IN
SW FLOW ARE APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL FL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL USE
MAINLY SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A WAVE RIDING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA/NE FL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA WITH
A BIT LESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WITH VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FAIRLY
SLOW STORM MOTION...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SIMILAR AREAS...WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS
POTENTIAL ACROSS NE FL INTO EXTREME SE GA. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL IN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE FL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOVING SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHWRS
AND TSTMS FOR MAINLY NE FL...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
WORK INTO SE GA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
NE FL...TO THE LOWER 90S FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH MORE SUN AND
DRIER AIR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL CLEAR INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL END NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LOW...AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AS
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FOLLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THURSDAY...THEN TREND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL READINGS INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS AT VQQ. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME STRATUS LATE TNGT...BUT WITH A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS...DO
NOT THINK THIS THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. FOR LATER
TODAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. WILL
USE VCTS WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL PORTS 18-24Z. MVFR WITH
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A NE SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. CAUTION LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SURGE. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL
INCREASE OFFSHORE MIDWEEK AS SWELLS FROM EDOUARD CLIP THE
OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE EDOUARD. ELEVATED RISK THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  71  90  68 /  50  50  20  10
SSI  85  72  86  72 /  60  50  30  20
JAX  87  71  89  70 /  70  60  30  30
SGJ  86  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  40
GNV  87  69  88  68 /  70  50  40  40
OCF  87  70  88  69 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.