Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181858
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
158 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow/...
Very dry air continues to filter into southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida. Dewpoints across the area range from 10 to 20
which is much lower than just about any guidance so manipulated
this afternoon`s values to account for this. Expect they will rise
into the upper teens to near 30 across far southeast zones
through the overnight hours, but will monitor trends. With clear
skies and calm winds tonight, hard freeze criteria will once again
be met for all zones. Right along the immediate coast may be
spared since winds will be much lighter and limit cold air
advection, but areas even just a mile or two inland shouldn`t have
trouble approaching 27 degrees.

Surface high will move over the area tomorrow afternoon.  Full
sunshine and rising heights will allow temperatures to warm into
the upper 50s to near 60 across north central Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday night through Sunday night/...

High pressure will build to the East of the region this period. An
upper low will move East across forecast area Saturday night into
Sunday. This feature coupled with an increasingly moist onshore flow
could result in a few showers, especially near the NE FL coast.

The below normal temperature readings will continue through
Saturday, then trend back to near to slightly above normal through
Sunday night.
...

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...

The ridge will remain to the East on Monday, as a cold front
approaches from the West. This front will reach the Western portion
of the forecast area late Monday, and cross Monday night. This
boundary is expected to weaken as it passes through, with limited
precipitation potential. High pressure will build to the West
Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the gulf and lift
Northeast toward the region Wednesday, and cross area Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Above normal temperature trend will continue Monday into Tuesday,
then below normal for Wednesday into Thursday. At this time the
temperatures look warm enough though for precipitation type to not
be in question.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through Friday. Winds will become
more north to northeasterly and less than 10 knots by this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies and light and variable to
occasionally calm winds are expected overnight. Light west to
northwest winds are expected tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories have expired as winds have subsided behind
the front, but small craft may still need to exercise caution
through tonight. Surface high pressure will build across the area
and offshore winds will continue through the first part of the
weekend. By Sunday, onshore winds will develop ahead of a
developing frontal system that will move through the waters
sometime on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents remainder of today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  23  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  27  55  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  26  57  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  28  56  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  23  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  22  60  37  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Alachua-
     Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-
     Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-
     Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff
     Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Elsenheimer/23/Corless



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