Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 241910
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Near Term /through this evening/...300-200 mb analysis shows TUTT
low over southern Florida...with convection on the east side of
the low starting to increase over the adjacent Atlantic waters
east of West Palm Beach. Over NE FL and SE GA, our region remains
on the subsident side of the fearture this afternoon. The upper
low will swing out over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
Upper level temperatures will still be quite warm with 5h temps
will be -5C north of interstate 10 with temperatures slightly
cooler -6 to -6.5C across north central florida on the east side
of the departing upper low. This will be around the time that the
east coast and west coast sea breezes converge over the Suwannee
Valley into north central Florida where convective activity may
increase into isolated to widely scattered areal coverage.
Short term.../Tonight and Monday/...The isolated to widely
scattered storms in our western zones will dissipate and shift
west of the Suwannee River during the late evening hours tonight.
Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy evening with temps
again expected to settle near normal levels by sunrise Monday
morning. On Monday...GFS shows a surge of moisture with PW values
increasing to above 2.0" across North Central FL, however mid
level 5h temps warm from -4 northern CWA to -5C across the middle
of the peninsula. The best chances of convection will be across
the southern tier zones with isolated to widely scattered showers
west I-95 to the Suwannee Valley.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Ridge in the low and mid levels will sink
south with a sw flow developing. Subsidence will maintain hot
conditions with temperatures above normal with highs reaching the
mid 90s. Persistent dry and warm(500 T around -5c) air aloft will
keep rain chances isolated to scattered each afternoon and evening
with seabreeze collisions near the east coast.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridge centered off
the se U. S. coast will produce a ssw steering flow. Subsidence
will result in warm and dry air aloft keeping pops mostly
isolated...with scattered storms more likely near the east coast
where late day seabreeze mergers will occur. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the period.
.AVIATION...Continued VFR with isolated to widely scattered afternoon
convection very late in the afternoon or early evening with VCTS
mainly inland over KGNV between 21-02z away from coastal TAF
sites. winds ESE or SE in the afternoon, then light and variable
again later this evening/overnight. VFR conditions Monday morning
with light SWLY wind.
.MARINE...Prevailing flow will generally be out of a southerly
direction at around 10 to 15 knots through the upcoming week.
Seas will generally average 2 to 3 feet. No headlines are
Rip Currents: Low Risk.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 10 30
SSI 78 91 76 93 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 72 93 76 95 / 10 10 10 40
SGJ 75 89 75 91 / 10 20 10 30
GNV 72 93 73 93 / 30 30 10 40
OCF 73 93 73 94 / 40 30 30 40