Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 051403
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
903 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
The first batch of showers has ended across the region this
morning. A warm front was across southeast Georgia, and lowered
temps for the extreme northern portion of the region to the low to
mid 60s.

The 12Z sounding showed moisture continuing to increase
throughout the column, with precipitable water values increasing
to around 1.6 inches. This is already above the 90% moving
average, and less than 0.10 inches from the maximum observed for
the date. So, this is a very moist airmass for this time of year,
and moisture is going to continue to increase. Precipitable water
values will get near and even exceed 2 inches by this evening as
a large area of moisture moves in from the northeastern Gulf. The
sounding also showed 0-1km shear increasing to 20-25 knots,
helicity around 200 m2/s2 and bulk shear around 45 knots. CAPE is
forecast to be around 1000 J/kg this afternoon south of the warm
front as temperatures warm to near 80 to the lower 80s. This
supports strong to marginally severe storms developing south of
the warm front late this afternoon and through the overnight hours,
especially across the Suwanee Valley and from just south of the
I-10 corridor and northward into southeast Georgia. SPC`s latest
update this morning advanced the Marginal Risk area eastward to
encompass much of the region for this afternoon and tonight, which
supports the latest thinking. The main threats will be damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph today. There will be a threat for
tornadoes late tonight through Tuesday morning, and SPC has
southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley in a Slight Risk of
severe weather on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog and low stratus will scatter out, with VFR conditions into the
afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to lower late this afternoon and
evening in advance of showers and storms moving towards the
region, and low stratus is possible tonight due to the strong low
level jet and very moist conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  66  79  52 /  80 100  70   0
SSI  77  66  79  56 /  70  90  70   0
JAX  82  70  82  55 /  60  70  60  10
SGJ  82  70  82  57 /  40  60  60  10
GNV  82  71  80  54 /  50  70  70  10
OCF  83  71  80  56 /  40  70  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Walker



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