Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 051912
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ON MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED WITH THE
WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN
THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS WHERE SEABREEZES AND
OUTFLOWS WILL MERGE. STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL DUE TO COOL TEMPS ALOFT. SCATTERED
STORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN THE COAST AND U.S. HWY 301...WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY FADE OUT THIS EVE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB LOW ACROSS CNTL TENN WILL OPEN UP
AND MOVE NE AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A DEEP AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A SEABREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE STORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN
DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS (-9 TO -10C AT 500 MB).
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM...THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 90S INLAND...NEAR 90 COAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER FORECAST AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. SHOULD HAVE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 90S
INLAND...UPR 80S/NEAR 90 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TS...MVFR...AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z AT GNV AND BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z AT REST OF TERMINALS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AFT 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15
KNOTS... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK ALONG THE NE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO AN EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL SEABREEZE. A MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE NE FL COAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  92  71  93 /  40  60  30  40
SSI  75  88  76  87 /  40  50  30  30
JAX  72  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  50
SGJ  74  89  74  90 /  40  60  40  40
GNV  71  92  71  91 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/PW



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