Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 170245 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...WINDY WITH COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.1030 PM UPDATE...
NE WINDS REFUSE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. NE 20G30MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE TO NE 20-25G35 MPH AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS DOWN THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDY NE
FLOW LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WHILE IT WEAKENS OVER INLAND AREAS
AND WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR MESOSCALE MODELS (NAM) HAVE OVER
FORECAST ANY COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS. NORTHEAST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ACROSS NE FL AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH
UPWARDS INTO THE 60S/70S ALONG WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES
BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES LIKELY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE
COAST...SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME
GUSTY. THE MVFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS 00Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6-9 FT AND WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH SURF BUILDING INTO THE
4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON EARLIER
THIS WEEK EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD CRITERIA ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  70  54  66 /   0  10  50  70
SSI  55  66  60  66 /  10  20  60  80
JAX  52  71  61  70 /  10  20  80  80
SGJ  61  72  66  74 /  10  30  70  90
GNV  53  75  63  75 /  10  30  70  90
OCF  58  77  63  76 /  10  40  80  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER







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