Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 012035 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS IS
STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWN INTO TEXAS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE CORE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD IS NOW
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVING RAINS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE COMING UP WITH THE
ARRIVING RAINS AND NOW VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE EAST AND
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. WIND HAVE ALSO PICKED UP WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND 15 TO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY WHIP A SHARP TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SEEN AS STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM12 AND GFS/GEM. HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
DETAILS FROM THE NAM12 BEFORE LEANING MORE ON THE GFS AND NAM12 WITH
THE TRAILING WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE LOW PASSES TO
THE EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND
INCREASING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE LOW/S BACKSIDE EXITS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z RESULTING IN A SWITCH OVER FOR
ANY LINGERING PCPN TO SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UPSLOPE WHILE
THE SFC LOW FURTHER DEEPENS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ADD TO THE
SNOW FALL FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE WINDS BLOWING THE
SNOW AROUND KEEPING THE VIS LOW IN ANY SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE
WORST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS IN THE FAR
EAST. ALONG THOSE PLACES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SOME HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SEEN ON THE PEAKS
ABOVE 2500 FEET AND UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE LOWER RIDGES WHILE VALLEYS
GENERALLY PICK UP AN INCH OR LESS. FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW
AND WINDS...THE COLD AIR COULD MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH...TRAILING THE
RAINS AND LIMITED DRY SLOTTING TO RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS ON AREA
ROADS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HAVE AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...HITTING THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY HARDER FOR
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WILL HAVE AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW GOING UNTIL 23Z WHILE TO THE WEST THE ADVISORY WILL
RUN THROUGH 19Z WITH LESSER TOTALS. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA SENDING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS MOST
PLACES BY DAWN TUESDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS
FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT
FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE CAA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO THE TENDENCY FOR THE MODEL/MOS
GUIDANCE TO UNDER DO UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
DICTATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES PASSING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...SO DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RECOVERING TO NEAR
50 DEGREES FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...INITIALLY AS RAIN...AND THEN
QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WEAKER
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST AND SLOWER.
THIS HAS IN GENERAL BROKEN WITH CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFTER ANOTHER
COUPLE OF CHILLY MORNINGS WITH TEENS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A LOWERING OF THE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...IFR
AND BELOW CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z
WITH THE MODERATE RAINS MOVING THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
VIS BEING THE MAIN AVN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL START
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE WEST
PREDAWN. GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON THROUGH. THESE
WINDS...COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL WILL KEEP THE VIS RATHER LOW THROUGH
MID MORNING IN MOST PLACES. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING
BY MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ088-
118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ086-
087-104-106>117-119.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.