Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220858

National Weather Service Jackson KY
358 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

The latest model data has trended not quite as wet, with the
southern stream system taking a track that takes it slightly
further east of our area than before, and with less overall QPF
across our area than before. The ECWMF model has actually trended
a bit more progressive than the yesterdays 12Z run, so the 4am
forecast package will feature the trends observed in the model
data regarding storm track and QPF amounts. We will be keeping our
ESF in affect to highlight any potential hydro issues that may
occur across eastern Kentucky. It appears that the heaviest rain
will set in early this evening and will last through the night.
The precipitation should begin to slowly taper off during the day
on Monday, as the parent storm system makes at northeastward turn
and begins to move out of the area. A few thunderstorms will be
possible from late this morning through early this evening as a
weak trough out ahead of the parent low moves across the area
today, providing additional lift which will interact with the
moist air mass that is currently in place.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal today and
tomorrow, but especially today, when highs are expected to top
out in the low to mid 60s. Conditions will be much cooler on
Monday, but max temp on that day will also be above normal, with
highs forecast to reach the lower 50s. Winds should increase in
intensity tonight and tomorrow, as low pressure moves by to our
east and the pressure gradient associated with it tightens up.
Winds should shift from the southeast or east to the west and then
northwest late tonight into Monday morning. Sustained wind speeds
of around 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph, are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

The models agree on an amplified pattern to hold on across the
CONUS through next weekend. A deep upper level low will be pulling
out from the mid-Atlantic states into New England through the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, troughing will be moving from the
Rockies into the central Plains states. These two systems will
eventually merge up in southeast Canada, resulting in broader
troughing evolving east of the Rockies by the end of the period,
and consequently bringing an end to the above normal temperatures
we have been enjoying.

Showers will be on a gradual demise from west to east, as the
upper level low pulls away, and short wave ridging works in from
the west. A few flakes still look possible for the highest
elevations across our southeast into Tuesday morning, but with no
impact. Clouds will temporarily clear out Tuesday into Tuesday
evening, with a few valleys in the east likely taking advantage.

One last day of 60 degree temperatures will be on tap for
Wednesday, as strong south to southwest winds will be in place as
deep surface low pressure tracks to our northwest and north. A few
showers will be possible as the attendant cold front moves
through, although QPF continues to look very light.

A series of short wave troughs will then take aim at the region
through the rest of the period, with much colder air moving into
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Have maintained slight to chance
POPs at times; however, moisture will be limited, so any snow
impacts look pretty minimal at this time. Will await further model
runs, before playing up any one particular piece of energy to
move through the region. Highs will retreat to the 30s by Friday
and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the night, before an
incoming batch of lower ceilings and light rain approaching from
the south introduce MVFR ceilings by early Sunday morning at
SME/LOZ. LOZ and SME have also been experiencing low visibility
due to fog over the past few hours, and the TAFs have been
modified to reflect. LOZ has seen conditions as bad as VLIFR VSBY
and LIFR CIGS due to fog. The fog should thin out once rain
showers begin affect SME and LOZ early Sunday morning. Visibilities
may also deteriorate to MVFR criteria or possibly lower in
heavier showers through the morning. Rain showers will spread
north and east through the morning, with SJS perhaps seeing the
rain hold off until later morning due to more of a downslope
(southeasterly) wind component. A lull in the rain looks to occur
around late morning into a portion of the afternoon, before
another batch moves through later in the day into the evening,
complete with a chance for some thunder. High- end MVFR/low-end
VFR ceilings should result through much of the day with
south/southeasterly winds generally near 5 to 10 mph.




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