Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 260354
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
754 PM PST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MAJOR WINTER STORM HAS MOVED INTO UTAH...BUT
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...COLD AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE KEEPING
WINTER SOLIDLY OVER NEVADA. THE SNOW AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ON OUT...BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND FOR A FEW
DAYS.


&&

.UPDATE...ALLOWED ALL ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE NATURALLY. UPDATING
ZONES SOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 313 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOTS OF ACTION TODAY ON
KLRX WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE FLURRIES
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CARRY ON INTO THE EVENING.
INTERESTINGLY...THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .15 OF
AN INCH WHICH IS 56 PERCENT OF NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BEST
SNOW EVENT FOR THE 2014 WINTER TO DATE. EXPECTING THE NORTHERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE IT...BUT THE
ENSEMBLES ARE A MESS. AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TIME...IT IS LOOKING
LIKE ELKO COUNTY WILL GET THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF AND IT WILL
BE ANOTHER SNOW EVENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EC AND GFS IN STILL
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CARVES OUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WITH A CLOSED LOW AND HEIGHTS ROUGHLY AROUND 540 DM BY LATE MONDAY.
THUS EXPECT VERY COLD AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE CWA AS H7 TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO BETWEEN MINUS 15 AND
MINUS 20 DEG C MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE AIRMASS VERY COLD
AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT JUST MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORABLE AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
STRUGGLE IN MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH 20 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SOME MVFR CIGS OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH AT KTPH
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 TO 25 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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