Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 012139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
EVENING WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THEN A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WHITE PINE
COUNTY. PW`S INCREASING TO NEAR AN INCH IN THIS AREA. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...HAVE ALREADY ISSUED FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES IN NYE COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH PW`S AROUND A HALF INCH.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PW`S FROM .75
TO AN INCH EXPECTED ON SUNDAY SO A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AS
EXPECT FLOOD CONCERNS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THIS IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT CONVECTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE PREVIOUSLY REFERRED TO WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO THIS WAVE
BUT RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
ELKO COUNTY AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA...HOWEVER MOST
AREAS WILL SEE CONVECTION. PW`S WILL BE AROUND .75 TO .90" ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT FASTER ON MONDAY
AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE SO FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA IN SW FLOW. PW NEAR 0.75 INCH AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND INCREASED STORM COVERAGE TO SCATTERED IN THE
GRIDS.

WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT WITH MOISTURE/PW QUALITY
DECREASING, KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN WEDNESDAY WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AND GUSTY SW/W BREEZES AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES THROUGH.

THURSDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY OVER NEVADA,
RESPONDING TO APPROACHING CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DRY FOR
ALL ZONES, WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY...12Z ECMWF POSITIONS ANOTHER UNUSUAL, 576 DM CLOSED LOW BY
SAN FRANCISCO AT 5 PM, WITH GFS QUITE SIMILAR IN POSITION AND
STRENGTH. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
AND ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL FIRE IN/NEAR NYE COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GFS ADVECTS VERY DRY AIR INTO NEVADA /PW WELL
LESS THAN 0.50 INCH/, SO KEPT FORECAST DRY AND POPS LESS THAN 15%
FOR NOW. BAT

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT/NEAR KTPH, AND WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR THE 00Z
KTPH TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MUCH LESS AT KELY, WHERE CUMULUS ARE STRUGGLING AND ANY CONVECTION
WILL STAY WELL SW OF THE TERMINAL. KWMC/KEKO DRY AND STABLE THROUGH
12Z SUN. AFTER 18Z SUN, MOST -TSRA FOCUSED BETWEEN KWMC AND KTPH,
ACROSS LANDER AND NW NYE COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LESS NEAR
KELY AND KEKO. LIGHT WINDS, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. BAT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DRY
LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/99/99/90



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