Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
138 PM PST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect off and on light snow showers through this
evening. Then, after midnight another storm system will begin to
move into western Nevada. Significant snow and blowing snow are
expected to impact travel Sunday and Monday as this storm moves
through. Overnight temperatures will be very cold next week.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. A little more stable this
afternoon. There are some cloud streets showing up on visible
satellite over central Nevada. Further north, there is an area of
showers developing over Lander County and moving east through Elko
County. Not much else happening at the moment. Winds are
stiffening all over to the tune of 10 to 20 kts and temperatures
are above freezing across the board. Awaiting the next storm which
will begin impacting the LKN CWFA early tomorrow morning.
Satellite imagery shows a powerful influx of moisture about to
make landfall over California. Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories are in effect, covering all of northern and east
central Nevada.

Tonight. In between significant systems, there will still be a few
showers around. Low pressure off the Canadian Pacific coast will
drift to re-center off the Oregon coast and a strong moisture-
laden shortwave lobe extending off the mean upper low will be
poised to blast through the Silver State. Low temperatures will
be in the teens and 20s.

Sunday through Monday. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for
Heavy Snow and Blowing Snow covering all areas except extreme
eastern Nevada including Wendover, where lesser amounts of snow
and wind are expected. That area has a Winter Weather Advisory in
effect. Low pressure will drop south along the Oregon and
northern California coast, producing a rather intense diffluent
flow aloft of the LKN CWFA. The nose of a 150-160kt jet flow will
pass over western Nevada. Another surge of moisture will spread
across the Great Basin, partially intercepted by the Sierra-Nevada
range which could reduce snow amounts in the north. At this time,
it looks like a general 4-6 inches of snow for the valleys of
northern Nevada with some valley sites possibly picking up another
inch or two. Even higher amounts are expected across central
Nevada where the jet will likely impact the most, mixing wind
gusts up to 60 mph to the surface. Snow totals could approach 10
inches over northern Nye and White Pine Counties with areas of
blowing snow possibly evolving into blizzard conditions. High
Wind Warnings or even Blizzard Warnings are not out of the
question with this storm, so stay tuned for further developments.
Mountains could get 2 feet of snow as this system passes. High
temperatures make it into the 30s Sunday, cooling down into the
20s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

Monday night through Tuesday. Most of the energy with this system
will dig south of the state. Nevada will be enveloped by a cold
trough. Temperatures will begin to cool down and showers will
continue. The best chance for precipitation will be over the
northeast part of the state where some moisture will wrap around a
surface low over Idaho. Low temperatures will be in the single
digits and teens. High temperatures will be in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. Period starts
with departing wave and left over moisture and snows Tuesday,
rapidly become an upper ridge and lowering pops for rest of long
term. Main forecast issue is how cold it will get on additional
snow pack and clearing skies. Based on last such episode where the
models did very poorly, have lowered max temps a couple degrees
most days and lowered min temps several degrees by end of the
period. Mins in single digits will be common everywhere, with
increasing likelihood of below zero over large swaths by Friday.


.AVIATION...VFR at KWMC...KEKO...KELY...and KTPH Saturday with
increasing clouds and chance for snow overnight and then dropping
to MVFR Sunday afternoon at all sites but not KTPH likely. Even if
VFR, all sites expected to have mountain obscuration and mtns
obscured en route.


Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South
Central Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka
County-Southwestern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for
Southeastern Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County-White Pine



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