Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 011112
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
412 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HANGING TOUGH IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
SATELLITE AND REMOTE SENSING SITES ARE SHOWING VALUES FROM AROUND
0.60 TO 0.85 INCHES.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR MASS IS TODAY. THERE
IS SOME MINOR DRYING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND THE GFS IS THE
MORE STABLE OF THE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTIONS AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED STABILITY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY AT KP68 AND KEKO. THINK THESE ARE
TOO LOW...AND WILL FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ALSO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONVECT. NOT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE
SLOW..LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME STORMS. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT ONLY A FEW
LOCALES HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON...LIKE
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. BASED ON SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE...LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM...WILL GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
INSTEAD.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE
BEING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY...WITH THE
REGION UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION. MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA TODAY WITH REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR KEKO. ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KWMC...KELY
AND KTPH. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLOW AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...SO THE EXPECTATION IS THERE THAT STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
WET. MAIN THREATS FOR TODAY`S STORMS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. SLIGHT DRYING TREND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50 IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96/86




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