Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 242040
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
140 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry through the week. A little moisture creeps
in next weekend with increasing thunderstorms and a few light
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. A very west-east elongated
ridge stretches from coast to coast with an upper northeast
Pacific trough suppressing it in the interior west. This ridge
would normally allow some weak monsoon flow into the Great Basin
but the trough is creating a westerly flow which is preventing
moisture advection into the region. Result is very dry air with
hot temps. The extreme western edge of a weak monsoon push over
Utah will allow some higher level RH to make its way into the
higher terrain of eastern White Pine County today. As of this
writing...a few cumulus clouds are appearing on visible sat there
and south of there. Have left isolate dry thunderstorms over
southeast Whit Pine for today. Otherwise rest of the short term is
hot and dry with relatively light winds. Some increase in high
temps Monday as H5 heights increase.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. The models are
in fairly decent agreement through much of the long term, with
some slight differences showing up in the wind and moisture fields
by the end of the period.
For the mid-portion of the week through roughly Friday, the name
of the game will be hot and dry. Afternoon high temperatures will
be in the mid 90s to low 100s for many locales, and heat advisory
products will be required where the temperatures warrant.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
The GFS model, still looking like the outlier, continues to show some
convective activity across and south of US Highway 50 by late
Friday afternoon. The GFS also shows a significant push of
moisture Friday evening through central Nevada and into the
northeast part of the state. However, the ECMWF model does
introduce some limited moisture on Saturday. Just to mention,
there is a kicker low feature moving in from the Pacific Northwest
Saturday that could make the southerly flow not happen for Nevada
as it may get pushed further east into Utah. So, this makes the
forecast low on the confidence level from about Friday on.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour
.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry. A little mid level moisture will
creep into far eastern sections of zone 455 today and produce very
isolated dry thunderstorms. Should die off after sunset. Min RH`s
in the single digits everywhere, with very poor max RH recovery.
Happily, winds on the lighter side. Outlook: hot and dry through
Thursday with an increase in moisture next weekend. Hybrid
thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday through Sunday.