Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
FXUS65 KLKN 191004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
304 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will move northward across the state
over the weekend. This will set the stage for showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours across central
Nevada today, moving closer to I-80 Sunday. An upper-level low off
the California coast will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the state through the middle of next week. Near
to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the next
several days.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Northward advancement of
monsoon moisture becoming more evident in forecast soundings and
700mb flow as a trough pattern sets up along the CA coast.
Convective pattern this afternoon will resemble what occurred Friday
but shifted northward about 50 miles. Deepest moisture with PWATs
around 0.80" will stay south of I-80 until late Monday so isolated dry
thunderstorms along the northern edge of the deeper moisture are
anticipated through the weekend. Additionally, wetting
showers/thunderstorms should remain generally south of I-80
through Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be near normal where
cloud cover is thicker, otherwise slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday.

The Great American Eclipse Cloud Cover Forecast!

The forecast appears a little tricky at this time. Forecast
models differ on the cloud development, movement, and placement
across northern Nevada. Forecast models can struggle to predict
clouds multiple days into the future, but signals can help with
the overall forecast. At this time, low levels should be cloud
free, since it will be early enough in the day before substantial
aftn cumulus buildups begin on the higher terrain. However 30-40%
1000-500mb RH exists in this layer, meaning there is at least some
potential for late morning cloud cover development. Also looking
at the mid and upper levels, 40-60% RH exists in these layers,
meaning there certainly could be some upper level clouds around.
At this time, it does not look high enough for mostly or
completely cloudy skies, but enough for at least party clouds
skies. So everyone keep your fingers crossed and don`t forget to
protect your eyes if viewing the eclipse. Check the NASA website
for proper viewing techniques and safety information.

Forecast was largely unchanged in the extended. Confidence is
moderate to high for placement of synoptic features with a closed
low off the southern Cali coast. This will aid in the advection of
moisture northward into the Great Basin through the early next
week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
across central nevada with isolated across northern Nevada. By
Thursday and Friday, trof moves onshore from the Pac NW and
brushes across the area. This will increase flow and help push out
any lingering moisture east of the Great Basin. Confidence in the
trof placement and weather impacts remain marginal at this time.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday appear to be the best
chances for convection across the Silver State. Given the
placement of the low, moisture/instability, and flow/shear, some
potential exists for an active early to middle portion of next
week and interested parties will want to keep an eye to the


.AVIATION...VFR expected at all TAF sites over the next 24hrs.
There could be VCTS for KELY, but only light to moderate rain
showers and brief gusty winds would be possible. KTPH should stay
clear, but N and NE there could be VCSH/VCTS across the higher
terrain. KEKO/KWMC should be dry, but KEKO could see gusty outflow
from aftn convection pushing north late aftn. Gusts would likely
be around 25kts.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions continue across northern NV
valleys. Light winds however, will suppress otherwise critical
fire weather conditions with close to single digit RHs in the
afternoon mainly north of I-80 today. Most of the showers and
thunderstorms should be across FWZ 457, 455 and 454 with isolated
dry thunderstorms and showers occurring along and north of I-80
corridor today.

Convection expands farther north into northern NV by Tuesday.
Storms should initially be dry across northern NV Monday, but
should at transition to at least a mix of wet/dry storms by
Tuesday lasting into Wednesday. Strong storms or perhaps isolated
areas of heavy rain with flash flooding are possible over the next
few days. Primary threat from heavy rainfall would be across
steep terrain and burned slopes. Be aware of debris flows or flash
flooding if working in or around existing burn scars.
Additionally, gusty, erratic outflow winds are expected with the
strongest showers/thunderstorms.




93/94/94/93 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.