Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 272216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA FAIRLY
"DIRTY" WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING EASTERN NV WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SPREADS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST EC AND NAM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ...BUT EVEN SO ANY
PRECIPITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITION OVER THE NORTHERN
NV ON SUNDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THIS AREA FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC STORMS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER GFS AND GEFS KEEP FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE
NAM AND ECMWF PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RUBIES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING FOR TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO GFS MOVING RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA FASTER
AND BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER EC KEEPS THE AREA DRY...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES LOWERED
POPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH GFS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE EC DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE AND
KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS
MOISTURE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED
POPS DURING PERIOD DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
MOISTURE. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AT KEKO
AND KWMC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLC

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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