Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 061006
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
206 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF
NEVADA THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT.

A QUIET WEATHER REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST AND
KEEP ANY WEATHER AT BAY FOR THE LKN CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL DELAY THE
WARMING SOMEWHAT ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA HOWEVER AREAS FROM ABOUT
CARLIN WESTWARD WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 50S
TODAY TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED. ELKO COULD WARM TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FANTASTIC EARLY SPRING WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA
WITH LIGHT WINDS, FEW CLOUDS, ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP, AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NEVADA ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST. ON TUESDAY, MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE
WARMEST VALLEYS IN THE LOW 70S. FORECASTING A MAX TEMP OF 68 DEGREES
AT ELKO TUESDAY, VERY NEAR THE RECORD HIGH OF 69 SET 1989.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO NEVADA, BUT
00Z ECMWF HAS MADE A SHARP CORRECTION TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS. MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE AND BOUNCING
AROUND, BUT THE STRONG STORM THAT HAS BEEN FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IS NOW ABSENT. AS SUCH, THE PROSPECTS FOR
WIDESPREAD NEEDED RAIN/SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE DIMINISHED. CAN`T BE
TOO SURPRISED THIS WINTER. MILD, INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NW
NEVADA (MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY), BEST SHOWN BY THE GFS. TEMPERATURES
STILL MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, BUT
REDUCED BY CLOUD COVER. ON THURSDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN STRONG
DISAGREEMENT, WITH GFS FORECASTING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
RE-AMPLIFY STRONGLY DELIVERING A BEAUTIFUL DAY. 00Z ECMWF DRAGS A
WEAK TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, AND LEFT LIMITED SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE. EVEN IF ECMWF`S TROUGH
STILL COMES TO FRUITION, IT LOOKS MILD WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING
WELL ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99



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