Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 252122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
222 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with above temperatures through Thursday. A
Pacific storm will bring showers Thursday night and Friday.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Upper trough will deepen
off the west which will pump up ridge over northern and central
NV. This will bring well above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday with highs mostly in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. There
is an outside chance of a shower over the far northwest corner of
Humboldt county tonight as Pacific moisture brushes that area.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. With the
upper level pattern continuing to be progressive, several storms
are poised to move through the Great Basin to possibly yield some
significant rain totals. The strength and moisture content cannot
be determined at this time, and do vary model by model, however
the timing of the first storm system prior to the weekend by the
individual models is similar. There is likely to be an infusion
of moisture from a dying tropical system by late Thursday or

Thursday night through Friday night. A slightly positive-tilted
mean trough will be the focus of entertainment as it develops and
settles over the eastern Pacific. A robust shortwave will move
through California and Nevada and some remnant tropical moisture
from a disintegrating Seymour will be infused into the flow. With
a good fetch of moisture, this system could produce a half to one-
inch of rain for the valleys of northern Nevada as it crosses and
re-develops lee-side of the Sierras. Low temperatures will be in
the 40s. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s.

Saturday through Saturday night. This should mainly be a dry period
in between systems. A strong low pressure system will drop south
off the coast of northern California. The southwest flow across
the Sierras will likely scrape off some of the moisture content.
Some model discrepancy is already showing up as the GFS model is
an outlier in bringing precipitation into western Humboldt County
late Saturday night. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.

Sunday through Monday. A little more discrepancy is showing up
between the model solutions due to the amount of energy the next
system is producing. A strong short wave is progged to lift
northeast from the mean trough hanging out over the Pacific, then move
through northern Nevada. Model consistency is generally good with
this short wave. Then, the ECMWF model re-loads the mean trough
with another strong low center off the coast while the GFS model
tends to keep more of the energy up north in a broader, more
shallow short wave depiction. The ECMWF then ejects the low
through the western CONUS at a later time, thus weather for
Tuesday, or lack of, is a big question mark. High temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

.AVIATION...High pressure will yield VFR conditions with
light winds through Wednesday afternoon at KWMC KEKO KELY and
KTPH. Skies are expected to clear out over KEKO by morning and there
will a chance for some fog.

.FIRE WEATHER...Much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Could see an
isolated shower over the northwest portion of fire zone 467
tonight as Pacific moisture continues to brush that area. A
Pacific storm will bring showers to the entire area Thursday
night and Friday.



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