Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222120
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S THURSDAY AND MID 70S FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FRIDAY.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SUNNY AND DRY WITH CONTINUED
WARMING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS MOST VALLEY AREAS HIT 75
DEGREES. WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON EARLY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...LEADING TO BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
FUELS REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
WITH TROF AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. EC FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. BY 00Z MONDAY...GFS HAS THE FRONT IN EASTERN NV
WHILE EC PLACES IT IN CENTRAL UT. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGEST RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE EC STRONGEST WITH THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...EC DIGS
A STRONGER AND COLDER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE GFS HAS A
"DIRTY" RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES CLOUDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THUS
HAVE LOW POPS WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
ZONES DRY WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES FOR DAY 7. TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

96/87/87





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