Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 170924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
224 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Partly cloudy and warm weather with intervals of
smoke from California wildfires will continue across central and
northern Nevada into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will bring
valley rain and mountain snow showers to mainly the northern third
of the state Thursday night through Friday. After a brief cool
down and some additional light showers in the north on Saturday,
temperatures will warm again early next week as high pressure
rebuilds over the region.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Weak upper ridging will begin to break down today as shortwave
energy pushes through the interior Pacific Northwest. Should
still see a couple more degrees of warming this afternoon despite
a few more high and mid-level clouds streaming in well ahead of
compact shortwave approaching the southern/central California
coast. Slightly lower 500mb heights under a near zonal flow aloft
may result in a couple degrees of cooling on Wednesday, but
temperatures will continue to be quite mild. The ridging and weak
zonal flow will allow smoke from the wildfires in northern and
central California to continue to drift eastward into Nevada today
and Wednesday as supported by the HRRR model output.

Upper flow will back to the southwest later Wednesday into
Thursday as broad Pacific trough digs southeastward along West
Coast. Warm and dry weather will continue into Thursday afternoon
before thicker cloud cover and showers arrive with a cold front
Thursday night into Friday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Monday. As the upper
level pattern becomes a little more active, a trough of low
pressure will be passing through the state, likely prior to the
weekend. Then, high pressure will slowly build in to bring a
return to mild weather.

Thursday night through Friday night. Low pressure will bring a
glancing blow to northern Nevada and it will likely be another
quick hitter. Winds will be strongest across western Humboldt
County Thursday night as the low approaches and the pressure
gradient tightens. At this juncture, precipitation chances will
be highest north of Interstate 80 with an emphasis on northern
Elko County. Snow levels will be dipping to the valley floors
behind the front on Friday after most of the precipitation has
ended. Northern Elko County could receive an inch or so of snow
in the valleys with as much as 3 inches of snow in the Jarbidge
Wilderness and Independence Range. Interstate 80 through the
Pequops could pick up an inch or two as the cold front moves
through. High temperatures will range from the 40s across Elko
County to the 50s across Humboldt County, and the 60s south of
highway 50. Low temperatures will be in the 30s Thursday night and
the 20s Friday night.

Saturday through Saturday night. Expect improving conditions.
High pressure will try to re-establish as the trough of low
pressure exits to the east. There could be some showers near the
Oregon and Idaho borders as the ridge maintains a low amplitude.
High temperatures will be in the 50s. Low temperatures will be in
the 30s.

Sunday through Monday. Pacific high pressure will expand more
rapidly and spread east to envelop the Great Basin, bringing a
return to dry, mild weather, much near normal. High temperatures
will be in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.


.AVIATION...Generally, VFR conditions and light winds will
continue at KWMC KEKO KELY and KTPH through Wednesday morning.
However there is potential for smoke from California wildfires to
impact KWMC KEKO and KTPH.




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