Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 232213 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
253 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BOTH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ONSHORE IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT BEING INCREASED WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FIRST TASTE OF FALL COMING TO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND...

FIRST LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT NEVADA OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND. 12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE STRENGTH, AMPLITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. ALL MODELS ALSO AGREE THE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH THAT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS ESPECIALLY E/NE NEVADA.

FRIDAY...ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO REACT TO STRONG TROUGH ARRIVING ON
THE WEST COAST. GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG
S/SW WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
ELKO, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR EUREKA TO NEAR
ELY, WHERE GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THOSE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH, AND LIFT INCREASES FROM THE
WEST. STILL, RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED.

SATURDAY...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE GREAT BASIN. GFS HAS FINALLY GIVEN
UP ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS, AND NOW KEEPS THE PARENT UPPER LOW NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR SAN FRANCISCO 5 PM FRI - 5 PM SAT. DURING THIS
RESIDENCE TIME IN CALIFORNIA, A STRONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED INTO THE LOW`S CIRCULATION, WITH PW AS
HIGH AS 1 INCH ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER. WITH THIS MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY, AND STRONG LIFT EAST OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY. RAISED POPS
GREATLY TO THE LIKELY/NUMEROUS CATEGORY, ALONG WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT.

MUCH COOLER SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS, RAIN AND FALLING THICKNESS
SENDING HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE 60S.

SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA, WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY, COOL, SHOWERY DAY EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE
ENDED, BUT INSTABILITY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING, ESPECIALLY NE NEVADA/ELKO COUNTY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO ABOUT 8500 FEET BY SUNDAY, SO EXPECTING THE FIRST
WET SNOW OF THE YEAR ON THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. COOLEST DAY IN A
LONG TIME, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS ONLY IN THE MID
60S.

MONDAY...TROUGH AXIS RAPIDLY EJECTS OUT OF NEVADA, WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY MAY PREVENT ANY FREEZES, AS
SUGGESTED BY ECMWF. BT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCT CIRRUS INTO THIS EVENING,
THEN SKC. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT SLANTWISE VIS AT KWMC, GIVEN SW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER 19Z WED, SW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS AT KEKO/KWMC, WITH S/SW WINDS
OF 15-25 KTS, GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS, AT KELY/KTPH. FOR THURSDAY, SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS AT KEKO, AND S/SW 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS AT KELY/KTPH. BT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT NEAR CRITICAL WIND/RH LEVELS ACROSS ZONE 467
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER HUMIDITIES WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. COOLING TREND FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
EXPECTED IN MOST THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/99/99/96








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