Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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811
FXUS65 KLKN 282135
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
235 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across central Nevada will expand into northeast Nevada on
Sunday. Dry Memorial Day through the end of the week with a
warming trend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Monday.

Moisture is surging northward today due to an upper level low,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in Central NV. HRRR,
RAP, and NAM12 all move this activity northeastward through the
evening, possibly reaching a Crescent Valley to Ruby Dome to West
Wendover line before sunset. If this activity in fact reaches this
far north, it will be isolated, and likely remain on the dry side
for valley locations (i.e. see just gusty winds). These will
however moisten up the mid and lower levels, which will set the
stage for convection tomorrow. Overall temps are warmer than
yesterday, with most areas near or exceeding 70F. Overnight lows
tonight will be warmer previous nights (40s to low 50s) due to
high cloud cover with greater atmospheric moisture. I cannot
completely rule out a shower or thunderstorm overnight as this
moisture boundary lifts north all the way to the ID/NV state line.

By tomorrow morning, this dry line is across eastern and northern
NV, with upper 30s to mid 40s on the east side and mid 20s to low
30s on the west side. Meanwhile, a weak cold front associated with
a 500mb trof over the Pacific NW will be pushing into Humboldt
county by late morning. This weak cold front and associated upper
level trof will aid in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms as it interacts with the relatively moist airmass in
eastern and central NV. In addition, sfc/3km, sfc/6km, and broken
shear magnitudes do increase in northeast NV enough that a
isolated strong thunderstorm is possible through tomorrow evening.
Further west in Humboldt county, expect mainly dry conditions as
it remains on the west side of the dry line, with winds turning
around to the west or northwest behind the weak cold front.
Activity will diminish tomorrow evening as the weak front slowly
begins to sag south. Overall QPF amounts are minimal for lower valley
locations, but some higher valleys and mtn ranges could pick up a
tenth to two tenths. Temps will warm further tomorrow ahead of the
frontal passage, with locations in the dry air pushing the 80
degree mark.

On Monday, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible in
northern Nye county in the higher terrain ahead of the where now
dry line is stationed. Elsewhere, PWATs begins to fall quickly
below .50 inches, meaning only stratocumulus cloud cover expected
in the afternoon due to residue low level moisture remaining. In
fact, PWATs will likely approach .30 in Humboldt and western Elko
counties by Monday evening, signifying a very dry airmass is
moving into the area. 500mb heights begin to rise on Monday,
meaning high temps should be similar to Sunday or a degree or two
warmer.




.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday.

Pattern and Confidence: Model simulations are still showing an
upper level ridge building across the West Coast beginning Tuesday.
Models are progging the ridge to remain over the West, with
differences cropping up regarding the placement of the upper ridge
around the Thursday-Friday timeframe. In any case, the large
ridge will cause temperatures across northern and central Nevada
to rise to above normal levels after the Tuesday, continuing through
the long term period.

Sensible Weather and Potential Impacts:

Temperatures (averages for this time of year are: highs in the low
to upper 70s for most locales; lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s):

 - Look for area high temperatures to rise each afternoon. This
   means values will be above normal levels by Tuesday, with
   readings in the low to mid 80s at many locales by the end of
   the forecast period.
 - Temperatures during the overnight will be at or slightly
   above normal, with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s Tuesday
   morning, climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s by the end of
   the long term period.

Winds:

Winds will generally run below 15 mph during the afternoon hours.
No impacts anticipated.

 - Tuesday through Saturday - expect light afternoon winds during
   the period.

Precipitation and Obscuration:

 - Tuesday through Saturday, there are some minor differences
   in where the model simulations are setting up the center of
   the ridge. Have kept ghost pops in for Thursday through Saturday
   afternoons.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
next 24 hours. VCTS to continue near KELY through 03Z this evening.
In addition, some virga/-SHRA possible near KEKO through the
early evening as well. Looking ahead for tomorrow, areal coverage
of ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will increase and include KELY and KEKO sites.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

85/86/86



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